Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Basically, for $1k, at anytime GDX is worth more than 35.50 in jan 2015, get all profits.
Alternately sell if the option is worth more in the year ahead.
Today, I saw some insane volume with this option. interpret as you wish.
Over $500K in options in this one level alone exchanged hands.
See below. Good luck
Monday, December 23, 2013
I have written already on how I think the next currency should evolve, using private enterprise in post titled Ideal form of Money, Power to the People. However, getting there does NOT have to be a 'revolution', it can be an 'evolutionary' process.
Israel Monetary Change Movement is making noise about how to overhaul the system. At the heart is the uneven power in banks to create money and the power of corruption in politics. I am skeptical that this movement will gain enough momentum to make significant change, but who knows.
Hopefully a debt-free society can emerge for public money. I have covered before how tricky this is, often this can lead to hyperinflation or currency collapse.
Bill Still covers this event.
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
I have more than I should in gold miner options, and all things gold miners.
GDX - 22.03
GDXJ - 30.90
RGLD - Royal gold Mining - 47.50
NEW - Newmont - 24.18
Tripple GLD - NUGT - not a good long term investment - 30.59
Thursday, December 5, 2013
Wednesday, November 27, 2013
It has gotten so ugly, that people who I know are very pro gold can't even think of buying into miners.
Is this time different? Lets go over the facts.
1) India citizens are paying about 20% higher on the black market for gold. This is in reaction to India trying to cut off gold sales in India. Basically pent up demand waiting to hit the world market.
2) China has kicked up buying gold in India's absence, otherwise gold would have fallen much farther...
3) CME has altered the rules on margin requirements for Gold this past Monday, lowering gold by 9% and Silver 11%. Basically allowing higher leverage to buy these materials. A nod and a wink from central authority OK to go into these sectors with more leverage.
4) Buying gold shot up today (lifting this from Gary's blog, click here to purchase, best there is)
$123 million in the ETN for gold GLD, yesterday it wasn't even in the top 100.
Not a fact, but I consider it one. :)
My thesis still stands, 2.5 Billion people (China/India) are getting wealthier by the day. Both cultures purchase gold, this will drive gold higher. Anything to do with gold and financial stability concerns is just extra value for gold/silver.
So I pulled out the stops and started buying again last two days. Today just solidified the gut feeling I had with the buying on weakness report above.
If you wish to invest in this sector, consult a professional, see my disclaimer, I am a hack.
There are easy ways to buy. The top two ETF's are GDX and GDXJ. GDX is a mix of gold miners, with GDXJ a mix of silver and gold miners.
If you wish, but I don't do this myself, GLD is for gold and SLV for silver. I prefer to buy companies not price of gold, but it is valid if you wish.
See chart at bottom for GDX, how we got here. GDX is $21.66, GDXJ is 31.50, GLD 119.82, SLV 19.13
I do NOT advise doing the next thing I am going to explain. I took some capital for high risk 'investing'. Its really legalized betting when you take away the spin.
Aside from buying GDX, gold miners ETF directly, you can buy stock options with a brokerage account.
I bought options that expire in January 2016, at strike price of $23. GDX as of today is 21.66. IF GDX is every higher than 23 dollars on January 2016 expiration day, all profits are kept. if it is lower, i lose only what I paid for this option. I paid $4 per share for this right. So, to make money, need to be over $27 to make any money.
Example: if you buy 10 options (each option is 100 shares, for total of 1000 shares) for Jan 2016 strike $23 for $4 dollars, and the price of GDX is at 30, you will make $3,000. If for some bizzarre reason GDX is at a new high, say $73, you will make $50,000. If GDX is at $23 or lower, you lose the $4,000.
If at any time between now and then the option is worth more, say $5, you can sell and pocket the money.The option is a combination of the price of the stock and the strike price of the option ($23), the time remaining (2 years vs 2 days, etc), and overall market volatility. (more volatile, more premium)
UPDATE EXAMPLE 11/29/2013, the option that I bought for 4 dollars is now $4.35, even though GDX rose to only 22.28 today.
If you buy the same option for Jan 2016 for $35, it costs about $1 So for the same $4,000, you could buy 40 options (4,000 share rights). With the price so far away, its prudent to follow the stock and sell if/or you are up quite a bit before the option expires.
There is an entire science around options, and tons of strategies. Buying straight up like I did is considered by the pro's a novice move. But I did want to document for you ways to LIMIT your risk, capital while maintaining the possible gains. Options of course can only be done in a trading account.
To the charts!
Sunday, November 24, 2013
But lets take a look at the Gold Miner ETF. It sits now at 22.25,
The ultra-low of GDX back in the depths of 2008 crash was 16-17.
Gold miners can go lower, heck the ETF could go below 2008 crash, anything is possible.
BUT, with China loving gold, India paying 20% premium and smuggling gold in due to import restrictions, I think this may be a demand spike waiting to happen.
I really have a hard time saying buy, after trying to catch a falling knife several times already.
But me liking gold miners has been between 25 and 30 GDX, and here we sit at 22.50.
Really not THAT bad of a timing on my part (assuming we don't go lower).
I am putting myself in again tomorrow, about 1/2 my purchasing power left, leaving 1/2 for later.
Thursday, November 21, 2013
These new business models are tearing away and the centralized business model and distributing it.
Today I ran across a coffee machine that promises to roast, grind, and make your coffee in one machine.
The idea being that once you have such a machine, coffee farmers can sell direct, revolutionizing the coffee farmer, and hopefully putting more in the end worker pocket.
This continues to be a theme, 'lose the middle guy'. Its happening to media, and now its going down the chain.
Once all these changes settle, will be interesting to see the new landscape.
I am applying a new label to this post, economy3.0. Version 1.0 was pre industrial, 2.0 industrial, now we are moving into a more direct, social economy.
Sunday, November 3, 2013
Tuesday, October 29, 2013
Bill Clinton signed into law the routing of the glass-stegall act, put into place to separate 'gambling' from bank deposits. George W routed the FBI department staffing down to a couple of people to investigate the trillion dollar mortgage industry. In the late years of George W administration the final bubble was being blown, resulting in 2008-2009 financial crash.
In August 2008 I started this blog as an outlet on my rantings to everyone I could meet on the pending economic impact. Little did I know how close it was.
In the turmoil of then, the natural outcome would have been a deflationary collapse that was stopped by a couple of drastic measures. First, the government went on a no-holds barred deficit spending campaign to soften the blow to the economy. Second, mark to market accounting in place since the Great Depression to valuate companies was suspended, as it is to this day.
Some purists would say both of these acts where not appropriate and that capitalist forces should have played out naturally. I am not one of those people. Yes, that is an option, and maybe it was the best one that should have been followed. But I can see why dramatic steps was taken to prevent a global economic collapse, as it was perceived at the time.
What I am against is all of the drastic steps WITHOUT meaningful reform. That is, 'fixing' of what was broke. We have chosen to take the worst path, appeasement without follow through on reform.
The market has hit an all time high today. Did you hear the bell? My friend John has said there is no bell that goes off warning everyone that the market has hit a multi-year high followed by a market collapse. Basically, there is no warning.
I am NOT predicting a market collapse per-say. I am predicting that we are into phase 4 of this mutli-year global economic refactoring.
Phase 1 was the incredible loose regulation and promotion of securitization of trillions of dollars providing the market collapse in 2008-2009. There are many other factors at work, such as derivatives in the 100's of trillions, but safe to say all the games in phase 1, lead to phase 2, 2008-2009 collapse.
This lead to phase 3, appeasement into 2013. I realized that appeasement was the route and not cleaning house in 2010, and changed my stance that the market may not collapse per-say, simply be dwarfed by lack of law and raw financial meddling.
We are soon to enter phase 4, appeasement failing. There is no amount of appeasement that can fix the system, without taking strong steps to fix the heart of the problems.
We have India's Rupee under duress, with India taking draconian steps to curb gold imports. Mish is calling for a possible Rupee collapse as food inflation hits 18% per year!
We have various countries in Europe, such as Italy, Spain, Greece simply upping the ante on financial gains, buying weeks, months, maybe years, but not decades as they exhaust every 'new legal' option.
We have countries like France, promoting job creation without even bothering to talk to the companies involved in so-called creation plans. And for what? a few double digit jobs? That is worth lying about?
Japan is leading the world on the demographic catastrophe that awaits us all in an economic system that at its core foundation is based on ever increasing demand.
We have China continuing to try to transform it's economy into a consumer-global based powerhouse to replace the USA. In the process, the information about the Chinese economy is safely in the unreliable fantasy zone. China has HUGE potential, but who can understand their true standings? At best, it is a hail mary hope that may come to save the world?
Back in march 2011, once I realized the world would NOT fix any core issues, but simply appease, the timeline for 'disaster' shifted from short term (2010-2012) to longer term (2013-2017).
Well, we are here, sad to say. I don't expect fireworks until 2014, but it could happen next week.
The world dances around the US dollar, and that dance is starting to show it's age. All is needed is enough people to lose faith in the dance to start the next phase of the crisis, global currency shakedown.
Best I can say is diversify, with a chunk in cash ready to move. The USD I CANNOT envision any sudden moves down in value for YEARS to come, so it is once again the safest play....until its not! :)
Wednesday, October 16, 2013
I am not agreeing or disagreeing with anything the guy says, but the facts are best presented to let the viewer draw to conclusions.
Anyway, well worth the watch, thanks to friend Rob C for liking it on G+
Friday, September 20, 2013
The FOMC meeting blew gold straight up and miners with them.
Here we sit, I am good again with entering positions, but slowly over time.
Stop loss at 25 for GDX and and 42 for GDXJ.
And here is the rub, both are much higher, so there is no safe entry.
You can buy in here, and simply lose 10% to next stop loss.
For this reason, I cannot advocate going all in here. Hopefully 50% of the position remains, so can add another 20% and simply .... wait.
If GDX and GDXJ do keep going up, you can really buy in a week...or two..or three.
Won't be a straight line, but in two weeks if we don't violate those levels, we are making higher lows, which is a trend up.
I am slightly reserved here. India is a large buyer of gold, but India is trying to cool it off.
It can't last forever, but darn straight it could last couple more months.
Lower demand = lower price, simple as that.
I am unsure if there is enough global demand to make up for lack of India demand.
If I believed on conspiracies, which I don't, insiders are influencing India to stop the the gold buying, to build up demand and cool off price. The insiders to get in cheap before the demand resumes.
So buy in here if you wish, but I can't advocate load the boat, lose 10% on next stops, repeat.
I can say, if you still have half your original position, your not out, and there is no burning need to get back all in today.
Tuesday, August 27, 2013
If the miners finally bottomed, then we should not see a significant pullback to the levels we saw.
So, I may be wrong, and miners are headed lower.
GDX stop loss I put at 27.25
GDXJ stop loss I put at 45
Gary of smart money tracker put it at different levels than I did.
I want to give this more range than normal, I don't want to be whip-sawed out of the position.
But I also don't want the stocks to melt, and I sit watching the miners fail.
Take a look at your cost-basis, and stock charts, pick what is comfortable for you.
My target to sell is 2017+, or 300%+ profit.
Friday, August 16, 2013
Further, I have a small play in some calls, year 2017, so far in last 4 days up over 100% in value.
If this was 2009, I would have made some serious earnings, but I don't take risks like I used to.
My friend Happy John has been in fixed income primarily for last 3 years, and finally he is materially 'in' on miners. A friend who used to manage a hedge fund is also in, and Greg 'the day trader' is in for a bit.
Gary of the smart money tracker is optimistic, and always with some caution.
Friend of mine got in near the low of GDX in pretty good.
Bottom line, what I have been waiting for since 2010 is here. In September 2011 post titled "The Bear is Back" I stated:
Out of ALL Long stocks, and even resource stocks should get somewhat routed. The next upswing I think will be an explosion for resource based stocks on the upswing. .... The USD crisis isn't until after the next upswing and the next cycle of down pressure. I still think 2013-2014, possibly as late as 2018, depending on how events unfold.
Routed isn't the right word for what happened to resource stocks. A brutal beating the likes almost no one saw comming. The US dollar is indeed falling, but it hasn't been a confirmed rout yet, so we'll see about the USD part. But remember, my view of gold going up is UNRELATED to USD currency, that simply adds fuel to the fire.
From post in January 2011, quote:
Precious Metals – I have blogged many times, I do not believe gold is money. I therefore do not like gold as an alternate currency. It is frankly, insanity. Gold as money works in a mad-max world. I will not spend my life planning for mad-max. However India and china cultures are in love with gold. As 2.5 billion people can afford to spend more disposable income, one common theme in both cultures is buy gold! And of course, the alternate reason is there are plenty of people who do view gold as money. For whatever the reasoning of people purchasing, I expect gold gold gold to the moon.
India has placed a surcharge tax on all gold of 10%, and Pakistan has BANNED gold imports. Seems like there is a slight uptick in gold buying, who could have seen that comming?
Now is the time to simply own GDX, GDXJ, GLD, and some individual gold miners and wait.
I expect this blog to be quite boring. I may simply have a chart of Gold and Gold miners showing when at risk (if it happens) to be reversing.
I expect to hold these positions for 1 to 4 years, making a pretty boring blog!
Good luck to ya. Gold went up pretty dramatically over last 4 days, taking GDX with it, to the chart!
Tuesday, August 13, 2013
I see no need for me to report charts, reasoning, and other items to point to gold miners.
Instead I refer you to Gary Savage post 'Behind the bear raid'. I don't subscribe to the reasoning that there is a plot to tank gold miners recently. Ignoring Gary's twist on the gold decline, the charts and analysis is good.
Consider looking at ETF's GDX and GDXJ, with GDX at 28 today, and GDXJ at 45.
I am almost full tilt in this sector now. good luck!
Sunday, August 4, 2013
Patriot Act was ground zero of all of this, and it had mass support. Now we have the NSA PRISM scandals, and all the public revelations on tracking, there is no material action being taken. Therefore there is one direction, continue spiral of ever increasing monitoring with zero restraint or process. Yes, you can point to restraint and process today, but the illegal actions taken, with zero indictments, and no material backlash equals free ticket to go much further.
Therefore the government has NO check and balance to enforce restraint on creating databases and profiles on every person. What will happen is a 1984 ish future mashed up with Gattaca, to shape your personal future. I cannot justify how posting my opinion in a public, non-eraseable form will have a higher chance of helping than hurting in 20 years, or my son. The only one way one person can make a difference is when the greater body of people yearn for leadership and support the person at the right time who stands up. The greater body of people will not look for leadership until after there is much pain to WANT leadership. Today we have all of this troubling technology exposed, and not enough willpower to act. Therefore what must happen is for this trajectory to go full course, and only after excess is so painful that change can happen. I dont think it will get painful until the common law enforcement officer has access Google-glass like technology.
This post is my last opinion post on corruption. If you care enough to know, look yourself. That is why the internet today is still the greatest tool for the common person in human history. Its all out there if you can sift through the crazy for the sane. I will continue to label corruption when in conjunction with events that transpire.
If you think I am nuts for this opinion, two things. First, what did you think of my opinion in June 2012 or in 2009 stating that the government can and will track everything? Today what do you think given the video below?
Show me wrong, pick up where I left off, feel free to post your efforts in comments on this post for others to follow you.
Thursday, August 1, 2013
Well worth the watch, and he is actually bullish on USA compared to China and Europe. Slightly dated, from December 2012
Wednesday, July 31, 2013
The key of course is pay on time, in full, and incur no interest or fees.
I have everything on autopay to ensure it is never an issue.
However, if you have some debt you need to pay off, first thing is to stop over-spending.
Second step is to move the debt to lowest interest possible.
Third is to pay off the credit cards in full in a set timeline, payment per month. In this case, set a goal of 18 monthly payments.
There are credit cards that let you transfer balances to it, with ZERO interest for 18 months.
Pretty incredible actually.
There is a 3% transfer fee, but typically that fee is ignoreble compared to annual rates of 12-30% annual interest.
Here are some cards with 18 month no interest on transfers
CitBank Simplicity - No annual fee, no late fees, no penalty interest rates.
CitiBank Diamond Preferred - will charge late fees, but like Simplicity
Discover - I like 5% cash back on new purchases (like gas right now), and 1% on all else.
15 month zero interest
LOW Fixed interest of 8%! and get back 1% on balance transfers!
Tuesday, July 23, 2013
Even if gold and miners reverse from here, how much farther can it fall?
In the 2008 crash GDX hit around 15 for a day or two, and traded around 17-20 for a bit before moving much higher.
Below are the charts for gold and GDX. If you can stomach it, now is the time to get in.
Actually last two weeks was, and I went in early myself.
I think with Gold gaping above the trend, and GDX and GDXJ heading for the trend reversal, it is looking like a good time. (GDXJ is gold miners/silver miners, smaller cap)
Don't expect a straight line up, both could get a nice punch down after such a good rally.
And to boot, my friend Happy John who hasn't traded in gold miners for years, went in for a decent chunk.
As for overall stock market health, the last two bubbles lasted about 6 in 2000 the .dotcom bubble, then 5 years for housing, now its sovereign debt. If history repeats the market is reaching the end of this bull run. Even if the market fell apart tomorrow, again, how much lower can gold and gold miners go?
To the charts!
Sunday, July 21, 2013
I won't give timelines, apparently when there is an issue, politics can kick the can much farther than I thought possible. Detroit has been bankrupt for years, but somehow they managed to not go legally bankrupt until now.
Its a pi-polar marketplace right now. The reality seems grim, but the markets are levating. If municpal bonds do start to see rising rates, this could be the begining of the phase 2 of this decade journey we are on. Contagion spreading to the government bonds, the next bubble.
I do think gold is near a bottom, if bonds start having issues, gold may start moving quick. I suspect we are finally seeing the gift in gold I predicted back in 2009, quote.
The gist is, I plan to ride this next wave down short the market (not short resources). I'll start looking for rolling into precious metals/resources WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE A GIFT.
If gold and gold miners don't look like a gift right now, not sure how much lower it must go to be a gift.
Sunday, July 14, 2013
Specifically around how media was allowed to consolidate.
This video series is excellent, clearly laying out our current sad stae.
I'll file this under corruption
Across the world -- Greece, Spain, Brazil, Egypt -- citizens are turning angrily to their governments to demand economic fair play and equality. But here in America, with few exceptions, the streets and airwaves remain relatively silent. In a country as rich and powerful as America, why is there so little outcry about the ever-increasing, deliberate divide between the very wealthy and everyone else?
Media scholar Marty Kaplan points to a number of forces keeping these issues and affected citizens in the dark -- especially our well-fed appetite for media distraction. An award-winning columnist and head of the Norman Lear Center at the University of Southern California, Kaplan also talks about the appropriate role of journalists as advocates for truth.
Thursday, July 11, 2013
Take a look at how the total assets in the banking industry was moved to the top 3 banks.
Good video to watch below, see article on this here.
Friday, July 5, 2013
Sunday, June 30, 2013
Sunday, June 23, 2013
An economic reset allows the current generation to set a new set of rules, and move forward until that system no longer meets the needs of society.
In our current case, I have written how technology is applying pressures on a system constructed in 1913. Technology further applies pressure by allowing much more to be accomplished with much less, raising the bar significantly of workers who can benefit from employment driven by innovation.
I have also written how we will see deflation for decades with an ever rising unemployment. The bright spot I have written about is innovation in a future new currency system allowing more to participate, and an world revolution in manufacturing.
The current system places quite a bit of emphasis on real estate. Partly because since 2001 the world banks have used real estate to grow paper wealth to drive more business activity and employment. This drive I believe is reaching a peak in the next few years world wide. What I believe will limit real estate valuation is yet again technology. What if, a house could be built at higher quality, costing 1/10th the price of current house building? What would happen to older house prices if a new houses could be built undercutting the old?
That is exactly what is in store for our future. The same manufacturing revolution I noted above will drive to new technologies, yielding an economic bonanza for developing countries, but potentially a death blow to the west economic structure.
The ability to automate construction is getting a new twist with massive 3d house printing technology in it's infancy. Such technology is not a threat in the next 3 years, but in 10? You an Guarantee it will come into play.
So we continue the race of the old system, rebirth into the new, whenever that comes. For now, continue to sit back and watch the Great Degeneration as it unfolds.
Thursday, June 20, 2013
The GDX ETF has really hit the skids. The overall market is just slightly below all time highs, and gold miners are at lows not seen since the 2008 crash!
If that isn't a buy low, sell high setup, I don't know what is.
If you managed to stay out of this until now, this is really decent to START buying.
put bids in at 5% here, 5% at 21, 5% at 16.
Granted, it is possible that the miner go lower than the 2008 crash, worst crash since the great depression.
OR we are nearing a multi-year low.
I put bids in for January 2015 calls strike 35, at 5 contracts at 1.50. Risk 750, reward 'unlimited' ;)
Friday, June 14, 2013
I REALLY like the ABX chart (click)
Thursday, June 13, 2013
I posted similar concerns over the years since then, culminating in post of June 2012, Giving opinion, is it worth it? In that post I call out how everything is subject to collection and analysis. I call out how that this data will be used to profile you for the rest of your life, no matter how your own disposition changes.
Then in Feb 2013 in post "Future Tech - The Double Edged Sword" I point out how big data married with tech, such as Google glass, will bring unprecedented power to centralized authorities. That at a mere glance you can be instantly profiled and singled out based upon criteria.
There are posts from other bloggers, like Karl Denninger on such technologies that can mass process data years ago for monitoring.
Sure, a person (Edward Snowden) says he has 'inside knowledge' that he is breaking the law to give to us. This knowledge is frankly known before he broke the information if you are paying attention. I believe that this event is political is spun to use against Obama (I am not a fan of Obama), rather than a real concern over US privacy. If that was such a concern, the media would have highlighted when LAWS are proposed to invade privacy. Instead they do not report important news, only when news is sensational and sells.
Even with this 'revelation', so? People will grow tired of it, and it will become the accepted fabric of society.
Until the 'revelation' that a Google glass product marries with face recognition and big data can instantly profile and single you out on questionable criteria.
Friday, June 7, 2013
If you have been paying attention, Greece, Spain, Portugal, and other countries in the Euro are hurting bad.
On a collision course to the potential epic explosion of the Euro is France vs Germany.
To learn more about the state of these countries, click on the links above.
At the heart of all these problems is the Euro.
The Euro is NOT a pure fiat currency. It is a currency that has strings attached, set by the dominant members of the Euro, with Germany at the heart of this debate.
Lets examine Greece as a case example. We'll bypass how Greece could never have entered the Euro without bogus off-the-book tricks to make their balance sheets look good enabled by large financial companies. The Euro (Germany) sets the rules that to be a member of the Euro you must have your finances in order. Countries cannot run deficits of 250% of GDP like Japan does. Such recklessness is at the expense of saving nations, like Germany.
Germany looks like the victim, a saving nation bailing out its neighbors, and enforcing tough love. This tough love of course is causing Greece to experience about 60% youth unemployment, 27% for general population, and 10% of all children at risk for insufficient food. A tough person would look at this and say "hey, Greece dug this hole, let them dig themselves out for the next 50 years". That in itself has issues for anyone born since 1980, hardly fair price to pay.
So the question is, why did Germany enter into such a disastrous marriage with countries with less than stellar financial histories? It is simple, it benefited Germany. How you may ask? It is a slight of hand that must be followed carefully.
Lets assume there was NEVER a Euro. Every country would have independent autonomy on their currency and finances. Greece could continue to (over) spend on their economy without having to cut back on their finances. You may say, that's illogical, they couldn't do that forever. True, there may be consequences but the likely net result is a currency that continually loses value compared to saving nations, like Germany.
So in 1990, 1 Drakma could buy 1 German Mark. By 2013, 5 Drakma buy 1 German Mark.
This of course, looks bad for Greece, their currency slides lower while Germany acts responsible.
So say you live in Greece and buy a BMW car for 30K in 1990. Car runs great and in 2013 time to buy another car. Now that same car will cost you 150K in 2013 in Drakmas'.
All things being relative, this will likely result in LESS German goods being purchased by Greeks. Now expand that thinking to every country 'not as fiscally' responsible as Germany.
The net result is for Germany to keep its exports healthy, it would REQUIRE to cut it's standard of living to it's citizens to bring down that car to say, 70K from 150K. Sure its not 30K, but something that may strike a balance of economics vs standard of living.
Now, which sounds better to you, have a customer base that sees your BMW as a 30K car in 2013, or 150K? The consequence of course is what Greece is experiencing today.
The only victim in Germany and Greeks citizens who believed their politicians.
Now the real victims is the youth of all countries, as they have near zero prospects for work. What we are building now is a European revolution, as the young get older, disgruntled and angry. Once we have a majority that are angry, this farce will end in a spectacular event.
Sunday, June 2, 2013
The Japanese stock market has had some nice sell offs last week.
The European union cannot fix their issues, and Greece just predicted 2007 employment level will be attained in 2076.
The US stock market has hit a nice parabolic blow-off rise last week, reaching extreme levels never seen.
All of this adds up to a market crash is quite possible around the corner. But never fear, this will be followed by even MORE extreme responses by the central banks to save the economy by easing money creation. Overall this isn't a bad thing per say, it just we don't know how this ends. I do believe that gold miners after the extreme sell of of GDX down to 26 is approaching a bottom. MAYBE another 20% lower? maybe? I can't see it breaking 19 a share like it did in 2008. In any case, we are closer to a bottom than 2 months ago.
I will caution all readers. If this plays out badly for the world governments, we could see that this next leg will be one that has rising interest rates at it's heals. The US bond market has seen rates drop for 25 years straight! 30 year bonds are near 3%, so this is also near a all time bottom. For who would lock in at 1% for 30 years?
What doesn't go down, usually goes up. If rates start to go up, all hell will break loose on our debt based society. If you own bonds, it will be very hard to get out without taking a substantial loss.
Good luck, we all need it.
Sunday, May 26, 2013
There are a variety of 3d printer twists you can read up on at this article from Gizmodo titled Nine incredible objects that prove 3d printers are total worth it.
The video below the image shows how 3d paper printer works.
Saturday, May 18, 2013
There are likely millions of organizations globally that have all sorts of black market and money laundering schemes. The timing of taking down Mt. Mox with the currency recent sharp valuation rally is not a coincidence, and is viewed as something to defend against.
To me, what Bitcoin has achieved is a historical milestone on the road to a new financial system model. The Bitcoin system being used for years by a very small minority, now has achieved with validation that Bitcoin is a threat. And a new currency system must survive the worst global assualt possible and survive to be considered 'good enough' for the world to trust.
I have written about bitcoins in the past, I do not believe it is a good currency replacement. It is subject to shortages, and therefore prone to deflation. I'll take inflation over deflation, and therefore I find deflation much more damaging.
In this article from rt.com 'Bitcoin Threatens economic monopoly, bolsters free speech' I think does a very good job of capturing the true power that a new financial model will set the world free, from a debt based society to a free one.
What I have not yet seen is an indepth critique of many core flaws in the bitcoin model I see, how those core flaws cannot be overcome and doom the currency to failure.
What do you think? Below is the techie in me experimenting with a service called Branch, to facilitate discussion via twitter. I doubt I'll get any reader (if there is any left!) posting on this, but feel free to do so. If I do get even a tiny amount of responses, I'll be encouraged to make it a staple on this blog.
Click on the red odd icon at the top to get started.
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
I have written what is needed is a financial system overhaul that has hit most industries by technology advancements. Bitcoin is an initial attempt at this, and Amazon has put its toe in the water.
Now we have Google Ventures backing OpenCoin, the firm behind Ripple. OpenCoin is meant to be a transparent exchange for things like BitCoin or Ripple.
Transparent is good, it is a key tennant in my view of a new currency.
The level of investment is 5 to 15 million for different aspects of the new virtual currency. I call this as a groundbreaking event making this topic legitimate.
Tuesday, May 7, 2013
The project is over, and I hope to ramp down my hours in the weeks ahead back to 40 hours.
That opens up time to post! I have much to say, from being quiet for so long. :)
Today I ran across an article that makes the argument that US manufacturing losing ground to China has hit bottom. I agree. Some of it is because of natural resource costs, a prime theme of this blog. As resource costs increase, producing products locally may net save money due to logistic costs.
Another is China and India's rising wages, yet another theme on this blog. I agree that China and India will net become 'richer' for the common person relative to the west, as I pointed out in The Big Picture. This is the backdrop on why resources are rising.
One aspect the article mentions is innovation, USA has some advantages. It doesn't mention specifically the maker revolution. I covered this in Manufacturing Revolution Revisited , also on this blog. I believe that is part of the story.
Good read, in a flurry of depressing economic news I post, its good to post positive developments.
Is US Manufacturing making a comeback?
Sunday, April 14, 2013
Be that next month or 3 years from now.....
Most pro gold people, like Gary of Smart Money Tracker, are calling this to be temporary decline.
I am not so sure.
There is a fact missing from many, that Greece is being FORCED to sell it's gold reserves. This is likely a first of a string of countries that will dump their gold in the debt pinch that is approaching.
With economy trending sideways at best, I am not sure who is going to buy up all the gold.
The same conspiracy theorists that say gold is being artificially depressed are DEPENDING that the same big political and money powers WANT to buy gold. That second assumption is a farce if you can believe that the same people are depressing the price.
I believe Gold is not money. I believe that Gold becomes money again it will set back humanity a century and further enslave the common person. Gold is a collectible. I also believe the current framework for the financial system is headed for very rough waters. We have seen Bitcoin emerge (its not a valid currency), and other contenters.
My thesis on gold is China and india have 2.5 Billion people, they are getting richer over time, and those cultures LOVE gold. China encourages gold purchasing to boot.
But we have seen India taking a stance to CURB gold purchases, combined with countries dumping gold, and economy flat lining, I am not buying the mantra that gold must rise in the next 6 months.
I still am a believer in the year(s) ahead, but there are MASSIVE deflationary pressures everywhere, I can't auto-buy into gold will recover and soar to new heights in near future.
I am not selling here, nor am I buying, and I cannot see buying more until we clear the levels we set earlier this year.
Good, luck, chart below.
Friday, April 12, 2013
The legal enforcement of handling of mortgage issues with citizens has been degrading significantly since 2002.
After the 2000 crash, the government switched to supporting lax (less legal enforcement) standards for mortgages. This is well documented in this and other blogs.
It takes an outsider to push for change, one that isn't under undue influence. Elizabeth Warren is that person. NYTimes has decent article covering at a very high level the state of affairs with mortgage abuse. Below is quick video. I am not optimistic at all that change will be for the better.
I fully expect the spiral to continue downwards, and these efforts will not succeed. Only in the depths of a financial disaster will the majority rally behind the minority who care about these topics.
Tnx for Bob for link
Wednesday, April 10, 2013
Since Bitcoin is finally crashing, I will NOT proclaim Bitcoin is now failed, far from it.
The fundamental nature of how bitcoin works is bound to produce more bubbles.
It wouldn't surprise me if someday Bitcoins go for 5,000 a unit.
If Bitcoin can figure a way to remove the collectible - hording aspect that drives prices higher, then I may become a fan.
Until then, play at your own risk. If this thing over-shoots and hits 20 bucks a coin, I may buy some.
Sunday, April 7, 2013
Mish pointed me to a great interview of Jim Chanos on Salon titled "We’re incentivized to cheat".
I highly recommend reading, Mr. Chanos I find very balanced and truthful in his discussions.
A nice short interview below on regulation
Friday, April 5, 2013
Sunday, March 31, 2013
I am against gold as money, baseball cards, or any means of placing value based on constricting circulation to derive 'collectibles' value.
Bill Still put together a decent video on bitcoins below. I could do with less preachy god-life values and more with the core reality of bitcoins vs a better solution.
In any case a good watch, see below:
Sunday, March 24, 2013
Thursday, March 21, 2013
It is not a true fiat currency. A true fiat currency can be printed, at will, for whatever reason. Need more cash, just issue more!
The euro requires memebers to try to keep a fiscal order. If you have high debts, then get it under control. The US has no such limitation.
So countries like Greece, Spain, Italy get slammed while the savers of Europe, such as Germany scream they must get their lons repaid.
The result is a currency at odds with itself. If countries like Greece had their own currency, they would print more money - answering to no one - and continue on their merry way. Their currency would likey trend lower vs German currency. The local Greeks would be appeased and not rioting. However, rest assured, german exports would be too expensive for most greeks and not buy german products.
So one side benefit of the Euro is to ensure everyone keeps currency relatively flat to each other. This DRAMATICALLY favors the sellers and puts the debtors at great disadvantage.
Niral Firage has a nice speech about recent step being done. Announcing to the world taking money from EVERYONE's savings as a tax, over-night, no wardning. The message is: dont keep money in banks, keep them in mattresses.
It is stuff like this that WILL create a crisis, and assets keep value, some like gold may explode up.
People still don't get it. Printing money doesn't cause currency problems, faith in the stability of the finance does. And what message does it send to announce taking people who have money to pay off some of other people's debt......
Wednesday, March 20, 2013
Back then facebook when it was at 22 range. Recently the stock hit over 30. I had a stop loss in at 26, and closed my position. if Facebook comes up with a new micropayment model to infuse money to its user, the stock should explode significantly higher in the year ahead. Who knows if they will do something so significnat.
Zenga was at 3, now at 3.38, I am going to hit out 2/3 of the position now purely because I am nervous. I'll put other 1/3 at 3 to stop out. It would not surprise me at all that ZNGA moves up to 4.50, but who knows.
Grpn is back to same place as bought, about 5.50. I wish I watched this stock closer and hit out at 6 recently. I'll problable dump entire position, I have no faith in Grpn model.
And the overall market is hitting new highs, something that i am sure leaves a bad taste in everyone's mouth.
I have been having second thoughts on long term for gold miners, I'll share them in a post hopefully soon.
But looking at the charts, longer term trends, and price of gold, I am adding a little here.
I stayed out of miners for over a year, to get in just before it rallied and crashed....lower than before I got in.
Not a nice experience, but, timing stocks perfectly is not how you win, its being in for the next rise, no matter when getting in happened.
Monday, March 18, 2013
I agree that a company like Flattr needs to go viral and re-engergize the economy.
If we can make micropayments work, I see a booming economy instead of a dying one.
I could see the market soaring much higher from here, if we can simply include the internet generation into making money.
Monday, March 11, 2013
I am not one who believes gold is money, and it should NEVER be money again!
The logic being, as the two largest consumers of gold increase in wealth, they would buy more gold!
Well, Indian government is putting a damper on my master plan, but actively fighting Indian purchases of gold.
The government is blaming currency imbalances on Indian high gold purchases.
So they are actively tyring to slow gold purchases, now with tarriffs.
I am not saying gold will collapse, but if the west hates gold as a threat from guns and gold bugs who think the world would be better if the economy was dictated by mining production, and the Indian government is also fighting gold. That leaves China to pick up the slack, and I am no fan of China's economy. China needs to prove they can change their model from exporter to consumer.
I am unsure what to do, time to leave gold? At very least I am not a buyer of more.
Thursday, February 28, 2013
You can read the post here titled American Manufacturing Revolution
This video does an excellent job to tease your mind about the disruption that is ahead.
Don't believe the hype? Look at all the industries that have been dwarfed by technology in the last 20 years.
Enjoy the video