The bar will continue to be raised for all workers, as they will need to compete with higher skillset to add value. I ran across a video that dives deeper into yet once again, how the baby boomer demographics will influence the rise of the robotics. See my previous post on March of the Robots, Deflation for Decades on my view of the changing landscape. The video below isn't from an economic perspective, but does a great job of capturing the technological landscape ahead.
Showing posts with label Technology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Technology. Show all posts
Sunday, June 30, 2013
Sunday, June 23, 2013
Technology, driving the next economic reset
Most people don't know this, but economic structures like the one we live in resets every 100 years or so. Resets can come in many different forms, the most extreme is currency is devalued or exchanged for a new system. This is needed deal with the overhang of past people's financial obligations and the reality that the people who acted may no longer be living. For example, the debt incurred during the Great Depression that was never fully paid off, what does debt from the 30's and 40's have to do with current 20 year olds feeling economic tension?
An economic reset allows the current generation to set a new set of rules, and move forward until that system no longer meets the needs of society.
In our current case, I have written how technology is applying pressures on a system constructed in 1913. Technology further applies pressure by allowing much more to be accomplished with much less, raising the bar significantly of workers who can benefit from employment driven by innovation.
I have also written how we will see deflation for decades with an ever rising unemployment. The bright spot I have written about is innovation in a future new currency system allowing more to participate, and an world revolution in manufacturing.
The current system places quite a bit of emphasis on real estate. Partly because since 2001 the world banks have used real estate to grow paper wealth to drive more business activity and employment. This drive I believe is reaching a peak in the next few years world wide. What I believe will limit real estate valuation is yet again technology. What if, a house could be built at higher quality, costing 1/10th the price of current house building? What would happen to older house prices if a new houses could be built undercutting the old?
That is exactly what is in store for our future. The same manufacturing revolution I noted above will drive to new technologies, yielding an economic bonanza for developing countries, but potentially a death blow to the west economic structure.
The ability to automate construction is getting a new twist with massive 3d house printing technology in it's infancy. Such technology is not a threat in the next 3 years, but in 10? You an Guarantee it will come into play.
So we continue the race of the old system, rebirth into the new, whenever that comes. For now, continue to sit back and watch the Great Degeneration as it unfolds.
An economic reset allows the current generation to set a new set of rules, and move forward until that system no longer meets the needs of society.
In our current case, I have written how technology is applying pressures on a system constructed in 1913. Technology further applies pressure by allowing much more to be accomplished with much less, raising the bar significantly of workers who can benefit from employment driven by innovation.
I have also written how we will see deflation for decades with an ever rising unemployment. The bright spot I have written about is innovation in a future new currency system allowing more to participate, and an world revolution in manufacturing.
The current system places quite a bit of emphasis on real estate. Partly because since 2001 the world banks have used real estate to grow paper wealth to drive more business activity and employment. This drive I believe is reaching a peak in the next few years world wide. What I believe will limit real estate valuation is yet again technology. What if, a house could be built at higher quality, costing 1/10th the price of current house building? What would happen to older house prices if a new houses could be built undercutting the old?
That is exactly what is in store for our future. The same manufacturing revolution I noted above will drive to new technologies, yielding an economic bonanza for developing countries, but potentially a death blow to the west economic structure.
The ability to automate construction is getting a new twist with massive 3d house printing technology in it's infancy. Such technology is not a threat in the next 3 years, but in 10? You an Guarantee it will come into play.
So we continue the race of the old system, rebirth into the new, whenever that comes. For now, continue to sit back and watch the Great Degeneration as it unfolds.
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
More progress on alternate currency
Lets be clear, I can't see an alternate currency to be viable until the USD is in trouble, something that I have written I believe won't happen until 2015-2017, probably 2017.
I have written what is needed is a financial system overhaul that has hit most industries by technology advancements. Bitcoin is an initial attempt at this, and Amazon has put its toe in the water.
Now we have Google Ventures backing OpenCoin, the firm behind Ripple. OpenCoin is meant to be a transparent exchange for things like BitCoin or Ripple.
Transparent is good, it is a key tennant in my view of a new currency.
The level of investment is 5 to 15 million for different aspects of the new virtual currency. I call this as a groundbreaking event making this topic legitimate.
I have written what is needed is a financial system overhaul that has hit most industries by technology advancements. Bitcoin is an initial attempt at this, and Amazon has put its toe in the water.
Now we have Google Ventures backing OpenCoin, the firm behind Ripple. OpenCoin is meant to be a transparent exchange for things like BitCoin or Ripple.
Transparent is good, it is a key tennant in my view of a new currency.
The level of investment is 5 to 15 million for different aspects of the new virtual currency. I call this as a groundbreaking event making this topic legitimate.
Monday, March 18, 2013
Technology and Economics
Good video on economics and technology.
I agree that a company like Flattr needs to go viral and re-engergize the economy.
If we can make micropayments work, I see a booming economy instead of a dying one.
I could see the market soaring much higher from here, if we can simply include the internet generation into making money.
I agree that a company like Flattr needs to go viral and re-engergize the economy.
If we can make micropayments work, I see a booming economy instead of a dying one.
I could see the market soaring much higher from here, if we can simply include the internet generation into making money.
Sunday, February 3, 2013
Future Tech - The Double Edged Sword
I have written about the perils we are facing with bigdata and new technologies that will result in having your online history follow you, and held against you.
In the future, law enforcement will have Google-Glass type technology merged with face recognition and instantly see verbs about you. For the first time ever, your decades of data will be instantly available to anyone with the technology on you. Instantly see who are your friends, relatives. And not too far away, to see who is the closest person (proximity) to you that you are connected to.
I recently ran across the video I saw years ago that brought this technology to my attention. Since I haven't seen it years, I wanted to post this video and the Google glass video for your viewing.
In the future, law enforcement will have Google-Glass type technology merged with face recognition and instantly see verbs about you. For the first time ever, your decades of data will be instantly available to anyone with the technology on you. Instantly see who are your friends, relatives. And not too far away, to see who is the closest person (proximity) to you that you are connected to.
I recently ran across the video I saw years ago that brought this technology to my attention. Since I haven't seen it years, I wanted to post this video and the Google glass video for your viewing.
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
March of the Robots, Deflation for decades
Many economic blogs for years have called for US Dollar inflation. This has not materialized as a general event. I have covered this on the blog before. Credit = Money, and Credit is not expanding like it did into 2007. High unemployment stagnates wages. And as I have called for since 2008 natural resources would creep up in cost over time due to global resource competition. Specifically as India and China grow wealthier, they will consume a larger chunk of the resource pie.
Another deflationary force is Technology. Every year less people can do more work. Technology does create new jobs, but typically for higher education at the expense of lower skilled workers. The wages are higher, but there are net fewer jobs.
I am a techie, I love tech. I am not suggesting the world follow the Amish.
But I see technology efficiencies now biting into the technology world. The area of growth for jobs is now also becoming a victim of the success of itself.
Pure capitalists state that if we freed the economy from the shackles of all government intervention, that the market will find optimal balance. I question if that balance can ever equal full employment again.
People use history to project future events. The capitalist 1800's and 1900's that yielded the middle class and a booming economy is not the same backdrop we face today.
The Western Baby boomers are aging, the younger generation have endured a decade of stagnant jobs.
And technology marches on.
What I think is happening is a shift in who is employable. If you look at the industrial revolution, people shifted from agriculture to the urban centers to staff factories. Those who did not adapt may have had to experience lower wage jobs in the fields relative to the new industry wages.
I think that is what we are starting to see now, the efficiencies of technology reaching deep into the economy to 'raise' the bar. I have a couple of items for you to consider.
First, there is robotics. This industrial industry has for the last decade taken a chunk out of the large manufacturing jobs. Consider this, Apple is moving some manufacturing BACK to the USA from abroad. Termed reshoring work. But instead of 1,000s of factory workers, it is expected TOTAL employment, including the receptionist, to be 200. Why? Automation.
Baxter, a robot targeting SMALL companies to replace 'expensive' workers at 9 bucks an hour is being marketed for a total of 22K per Robot. In 18 months you can expect this robot to do much more than today, and every 18 months thereafter. Dare I say the price will also steadily be reduced.
It isn't out of the question in 6 or 8 years that the Robot be under 10K. In a decade every McDonalds will have 2 people and rest robots running the operations.
Combine above trends with IT trends of eliminating IT datacenters and consolidating on the cloud, and we have massive deflationary forces at work.
Now for a quick higher level view of job facts. Mish posted two images below about the US labor force over the last five years. Considering the US government is spending 3.4 Trillion of a 15 trillion economy each year, the US is barely treading water. Dare I say the forces I quote are hard to keep at bay. Simply look at industries hardest hit. Those that can be automated or outsourced.
What does this amount to? Well we are in interesting times in the years ahead. There will be explosive new companies with tremendous growth as new areas continue to unfold. Society is a bell curve of capability, and the bar for new jobs will continue to be raised. I expect an ever increasing higher REAL unemployment rate. (if you don't ignore those who give up trying to work) There will be continued deflationary forces between baby boomers retiring, technology, and overall unemployment. And I still think natural resource contention as China kick starts their consumer economy along with India.
I do have optimism, to read that post, click here!
Another deflationary force is Technology. Every year less people can do more work. Technology does create new jobs, but typically for higher education at the expense of lower skilled workers. The wages are higher, but there are net fewer jobs.
I am a techie, I love tech. I am not suggesting the world follow the Amish.
But I see technology efficiencies now biting into the technology world. The area of growth for jobs is now also becoming a victim of the success of itself.
Pure capitalists state that if we freed the economy from the shackles of all government intervention, that the market will find optimal balance. I question if that balance can ever equal full employment again.
People use history to project future events. The capitalist 1800's and 1900's that yielded the middle class and a booming economy is not the same backdrop we face today.
The Western Baby boomers are aging, the younger generation have endured a decade of stagnant jobs.
And technology marches on.
What I think is happening is a shift in who is employable. If you look at the industrial revolution, people shifted from agriculture to the urban centers to staff factories. Those who did not adapt may have had to experience lower wage jobs in the fields relative to the new industry wages.
I think that is what we are starting to see now, the efficiencies of technology reaching deep into the economy to 'raise' the bar. I have a couple of items for you to consider.
First, there is robotics. This industrial industry has for the last decade taken a chunk out of the large manufacturing jobs. Consider this, Apple is moving some manufacturing BACK to the USA from abroad. Termed reshoring work. But instead of 1,000s of factory workers, it is expected TOTAL employment, including the receptionist, to be 200. Why? Automation.
Baxter, a robot targeting SMALL companies to replace 'expensive' workers at 9 bucks an hour is being marketed for a total of 22K per Robot. In 18 months you can expect this robot to do much more than today, and every 18 months thereafter. Dare I say the price will also steadily be reduced.
It isn't out of the question in 6 or 8 years that the Robot be under 10K. In a decade every McDonalds will have 2 people and rest robots running the operations.
Combine above trends with IT trends of eliminating IT datacenters and consolidating on the cloud, and we have massive deflationary forces at work.
Now for a quick higher level view of job facts. Mish posted two images below about the US labor force over the last five years. Considering the US government is spending 3.4 Trillion of a 15 trillion economy each year, the US is barely treading water. Dare I say the forces I quote are hard to keep at bay. Simply look at industries hardest hit. Those that can be automated or outsourced.
What does this amount to? Well we are in interesting times in the years ahead. There will be explosive new companies with tremendous growth as new areas continue to unfold. Society is a bell curve of capability, and the bar for new jobs will continue to be raised. I expect an ever increasing higher REAL unemployment rate. (if you don't ignore those who give up trying to work) There will be continued deflationary forces between baby boomers retiring, technology, and overall unemployment. And I still think natural resource contention as China kick starts their consumer economy along with India.
I do have optimism, to read that post, click here!
Monday, October 15, 2012
Deflation everywhere, except monetary policy
The typical view many armchair economists take is viewing the capital markets and central bank policies, calling foul when central planners bend or break the law in the spirit of saving the economy.
I agree in spirit that central planning is bad vs free markets. If a regulated, transparent capital market was set free to evolve on it's own, there is no question in my mind that the world will adapt to change much faster, and efficiently.
But what most miss is part of the problem IS efficiency. Technology RUTHLESSLY tears down inefficient and helps evolved business and social fabric to a more efficient model. What efficiency effects are basically less people can do more. Meaning, you don't need as much middlemen from the Makers to the Consumers.
As this happens, the net result is if your not a maker, or wealthy enough to be a eager consumer, you fall into the cracks. This group of people is ever widening, as technology moves forward.
What compounds this effect is global trade efficiency, in effect allowing others around the world compete for work. Net this is a good thing, for people who most desperately needs work can get work. But the effect when looked at closer can be more personal and disturbing. Plus global trade raises questions of what is efficiency....and what is fair.
Easier examples of technology efficiency effect is music industry, software makers, open hardware, financial trading, retail distribution, farming, and hosts of other industries. When you look at each one to see how they have changed and are changing over the last decade, it is easy to see the displacement of workers.
The makers and consumers benefit from a more direct relationship, yielding cheaper prices and more competition. But the channel distribution now yields less workers. Consider WalMart vs mom and pop stores across the country, music stores vs iTunes, local book store vs Amazon.
Farming is moving towards 100% robots ...except for on-call mechanics...as cheap labor is driven out by cheaper labor, robots.
When you see the changing landscape, if left up to a more efficient market, we may see honest assessment of unemployment in USA of 25% or more. Possibly in some areas of Europe of 50%. By artificially keeping inefficient human processes afloat with Government spending, Central Bank intervention, what is being done is avoiding the reality today in hope a better answer appears tomorrow.
Extrapolating into the future, (with DOUBLING of technology every 18 months!) this problem will accelerate. Picture a world where renewable energy accounts for 75% of energy use, self driving cars, planes, google glass, and robotic factories. A world where a flexible robot can be easily adapted to a wide variety of custom tasks. This is NOT a world of full employment, for those less skilled simply cannot compete vs automation.
So when people pound the ground that we need to return to an efficient capital marketplace, you best be a maker, a skilled specialist, or a well positioned consumer, for the rest may not like the world that leaves them out.
I agree in spirit that central planning is bad vs free markets. If a regulated, transparent capital market was set free to evolve on it's own, there is no question in my mind that the world will adapt to change much faster, and efficiently.
But what most miss is part of the problem IS efficiency. Technology RUTHLESSLY tears down inefficient and helps evolved business and social fabric to a more efficient model. What efficiency effects are basically less people can do more. Meaning, you don't need as much middlemen from the Makers to the Consumers.
As this happens, the net result is if your not a maker, or wealthy enough to be a eager consumer, you fall into the cracks. This group of people is ever widening, as technology moves forward.
What compounds this effect is global trade efficiency, in effect allowing others around the world compete for work. Net this is a good thing, for people who most desperately needs work can get work. But the effect when looked at closer can be more personal and disturbing. Plus global trade raises questions of what is efficiency....and what is fair.
Easier examples of technology efficiency effect is music industry, software makers, open hardware, financial trading, retail distribution, farming, and hosts of other industries. When you look at each one to see how they have changed and are changing over the last decade, it is easy to see the displacement of workers.
The makers and consumers benefit from a more direct relationship, yielding cheaper prices and more competition. But the channel distribution now yields less workers. Consider WalMart vs mom and pop stores across the country, music stores vs iTunes, local book store vs Amazon.
Farming is moving towards 100% robots ...except for on-call mechanics...as cheap labor is driven out by cheaper labor, robots.
When you see the changing landscape, if left up to a more efficient market, we may see honest assessment of unemployment in USA of 25% or more. Possibly in some areas of Europe of 50%. By artificially keeping inefficient human processes afloat with Government spending, Central Bank intervention, what is being done is avoiding the reality today in hope a better answer appears tomorrow.
Extrapolating into the future, (with DOUBLING of technology every 18 months!) this problem will accelerate. Picture a world where renewable energy accounts for 75% of energy use, self driving cars, planes, google glass, and robotic factories. A world where a flexible robot can be easily adapted to a wide variety of custom tasks. This is NOT a world of full employment, for those less skilled simply cannot compete vs automation.
So when people pound the ground that we need to return to an efficient capital marketplace, you best be a maker, a skilled specialist, or a well positioned consumer, for the rest may not like the world that leaves them out.
Friday, March 4, 2011
Once again, technology to break inefficient systems
The advent of the internet, and computer based systems that provide efficient virtual stores and delivery processes are creating ways for companies to avoid state taxes.
Amazon.com for example, avoids taxation by states by not being located in the state is ships to. States with budgetary problems are trying to come after companies for sales taxes.
Kudos for Amazon to respond by leaving the state of any shred of presence in the states that challenge it. Recently Texas came after Amazon, so Amazon is shutting down it's distribution system in that state.
The net effect is people working at that location will be unemployed, and shipping rates to people in Texas are likely to go up if they buy from Amazon. The state seems to think because Amazon is efficient, it is "taking away sales" from local Texas businesses.
How IRONIC we have "Free trade" agreements with China, but not similar agreement between the US states.
Kudos for Amazon to lead the charge in breaking the states of relying on inefficiency to justify the cost of sales tax. Technology over time will break these systems, and state funding will have to come from different sources.
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Technology, Power to the people
I posted how "Technology, is the ultimate destructor of inefficiency" , and on the show "This Week" highlights the role of new social media in bringing down dictatorships. (Twitter, Facebook, etc).
We are living in very interesting times, where democracy is taking shape through technology.
Great video to watch, for this historic period.
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Small Proof that Technology will break the US financial system
In my blog post in October titled, "Technology, the ultimate destructor of inefficiency", I detailed my view on how the old guard of humans controlling the economy using processes created 80 years ago would lose to technology. Good old Ben Bernanke and government central control of financial markets cannot compete with billion dollar investment firms creating computer systems to suck the system dry of money. That in effect, Technology will win, and the system will lose.
Quote taken from Zero hedge below, Please click through to get the full article and listen to the interview. It is refreshing to see the internet get out insider view of what is a complex and high stakes game being played.
How the average trader is destined to lose in today's market, while the big banks & HFT firms who can afford to win the arms race are making essentially-guaranteed profits.
Folks we are not victims to the system, unless we allow it. Only if we demand to change processes will this be stopped. And since people are reactionary I don't see that occurring. So I see a crisis far worse than 2008 in our future, as the arms race escalates until the system breaks.
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Technology, the ultimate destructor of inefficiency
This post is a continuation the series of topics I am covering, which will culminate in my view of where the US dollar is going and why. Previous posts include Value of Government and it's Currency, Human nature is to react rather than prevent, Answering problems with what you know, and Is the US government owned by banks.
First, let me state I have been a computer programmer since the age of 13. Needless to say, my view of technology and it's effect on society is a bit skewed than the average person. I of course, think I have more insight than the average person, you be the judge after reading this article.
Computerization of business processes has been a core driver of technological advancement. The very first computer was ENIAC. The purpose was to in effect, be a giant calculator for military purposes. Before the ENIAC, what was done for massive mathematical computations was to divide 1,000s of calculations among a 100's of people to compute. Those calculations where then fed back into the "people calculation machine" for the next set of equations. This was repeated until the objective values where reached. Then, a scientist, mathematician, etc, would review the results, derive some meaning, then repeat the whole process for his next calculation required to solve whatever problem was being worked on.
The ENIAC was used to streamline the massive math computations required around developing the first Atomic Bomb. It is very fitting that computers was born out of such a need.
In effect what did the ENIAC do? It replaced an army of people doing a repeatable task with a "computer". It in effect, improved efficiency by speeding up problem solving time and reducing cost. Ever since then there has been an unstoppable force invading every crevice of society by improving turn around and reducing cost.
We have seen telephone companies such as AT&T come toppling down as telecom is computerized, becoming a commodity. Companies like Google the dwarf advertising industry like no other company in history. Companies like WalMart, that through computerization, has created an automated distribution system starting in china, and rippling through out the world. Creating a delivery system requiring extremely low inventory requirements for the retailer.
I could go on and on, lets now get to Financials.
We have seen arbitrage been reduced from days and hours down to sub-second trading. We have seen the stock market go from zero percent traded by computers to over seventy percent of all trading is done using automated computer systems with no human real time direction. We have seen the US stock market lose value in seconds, with many trading in the pennies this year, int he "flash crash" blamed on computer trading.
We know now that Goldman Sachs has a vast network of super computers with high speed data connects allowing it to do massive trades at sub-second levels. When this was developed it was not widely known, and only came to light in the last year, and was dubbed High Frequency Trading.
The financial system trades with such agility, such automation, at such a ridiculous speed. The equities of the companies that are being traded do NOT reveal their financials on sub-second level on a second by second update. The information distributed to the public is generally once a quarter. The creation of money is announced through the Federal Reserve Bank, and is executed on a somewhat planned interval. The US government announces it's budget once a year, with some ad-hoc revisions.
The general point is the trading system is vastly faster, more agile, and more automated than the companies and countries that it represents. The trading arena has been twisted into a computer game, with it's own rules. We have seen computerized trading wipe out vast amounts of waste and arbitrage in the last 20 years. Every microsecond now is traded against, where just 20 years ago you would phone in your order to the NY Stock exchange for someone on the floor to use a hand signal to trade the stock.
The disparity of the trading platform, and the slow data dissemination to the public about the companies and countries cannot last. Computerization will expose this inequity through a crisis. Further, any action done by a person, such as Ben Bernanke of the Federal Reserve, will be acted upon with greater speed, greater volume, and greater volatility as time goes by.
In effect, it is my opinion, that we are seeing the older guard, the analog structures in the financial markets pitted against super computers. And I believe the computers will win this battle. Having a group of people meet once a month to decide the interest rates, volume of money to be printed, and change laws to "fudge" their outcome will not stand against the technology they face.
They are not changing their approach, and until their processes are computerized , they are fighting a battle that they will lose. For they are inefficient, and will be replaced, just as the ENIAC did with the 100's of human computers.
Lets just hope the financial computers are not building a financial atomic bomb.
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