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Showing posts with label Maker. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Maker. Show all posts

Thursday, November 21, 2013

Decentralizing and Centralizing the economy

I see so many aspects of the economy changing rapidly due to technology.   Between 3d printing, the maker movement, kickstarter, youtube video, bitcoin, and an ever increasing list.

These new business models are tearing away and the centralized business model and distributing it.
Today I ran across a coffee machine that promises to roast, grind, and make your coffee in one machine.
The idea being that once you have such a machine, coffee farmers can sell direct, revolutionizing the coffee farmer, and hopefully putting more in the end worker pocket.

This continues to be a theme, 'lose the middle guy'.   Its happening to media, and now its going down the chain.
Once all these changes settle, will be interesting to see the new landscape.

I am applying a new label to this post, economy3.0. Version 1.0 was pre industrial, 2.0 industrial, now we are moving into a more direct, social economy.

Sunday, June 23, 2013

Technology, driving the next economic reset

Most people don't know this, but economic structures like the one we live in resets every 100 years or so.  Resets can come in many different forms, the most extreme is currency is devalued or exchanged for a new system.  This is needed deal with the overhang of past people's financial obligations and the reality that the people who acted may no longer be living.  For example, the debt incurred during the Great Depression that was never fully paid off, what does debt from the 30's and 40's have to do with current 20 year olds feeling economic tension?

An economic reset allows the current generation to set a new set of rules, and move forward until that system no longer meets the needs of society.

In our current case, I have written how technology is applying pressures on a system constructed in 1913.  Technology further applies pressure by allowing much more to be accomplished with much less, raising the bar significantly of workers who can benefit from employment driven by innovation.

I have also written how we will see deflation for decades with an ever rising unemployment.   The bright spot I have written about is innovation in a future new currency system allowing more to participate, and an world revolution in manufacturing.

The current system places quite a bit of emphasis on real estate.  Partly because since 2001 the world banks have used real estate to grow paper wealth to drive more business activity and employment.  This drive I believe is reaching a peak in the next few years world wide.   What I believe will limit real estate valuation is yet again technology.  What if, a house could be built at higher quality, costing 1/10th the price of current house building?   What would happen to older house prices if a new houses could be built undercutting the old?

That is exactly what is in store for our future.  The same manufacturing revolution I noted above will drive to new technologies, yielding an economic bonanza for developing countries, but potentially a death blow to the west economic structure.

The ability to automate construction is getting a new twist with massive 3d house printing technology in it's infancy.  Such technology is not a threat in the next 3 years, but in 10? You an Guarantee it will come into play.

So we continue the race of the old system, rebirth into the new, whenever that comes.  For now, continue to sit back and watch the Great Degeneration as it unfolds.





Sunday, May 26, 2013

3d Printing on paper

As an example of how innovative 3d printing is, I ran across video showing 3d printing using paper instead of plastic.  As 3d printers refine in a variety of materials, interesting cost effective printers will emerge as a popular choice.  I suspect the price right now is out of reach of typical consumers.


There are a variety of 3d printer twists you can read up on at this article from Gizmodo titled Nine incredible objects that prove 3d printers are total worth it.
The video below the image shows how 3d paper printer works.



Thursday, February 28, 2013

Economic Disruption 3d printing

I have posted before about a collection of new capabilities that are emerging that I believe is a funamental shift in small business and manufacturing.

You can read the post here titled American Manufacturing Revolution

This video does an excellent job to tease your mind about the disruption that is ahead.
Don't believe the hype? Look at all the industries that have been dwarfed by technology in the last 20 years.
Enjoy the video



Sunday, October 21, 2012

The Next Apple Stock

Smartphones are now mainstream, and so are tablets.  The competition for consumers are now from many manufacturers.   I expect this market to continue to be fractional-ized, akin to the car manufacturing market.  In the phone & Tablet markets it will settle into bands like the car market, BMW (Apple?) and Toyota (Samsung?), etc.

So while investing in this market can still be very profitable, the form factor is defined. Sure Android has the cool feature to touch phones shoot over data to another phone, unlike iphone, but all of this is incremental.  A new design like Google Glass will eventually take those form factors on.

Quite amazing when you think about it, the iphone was introduced in June 2007, and here we are in 2012 and the form factor is reasonably defined with tons of competitors.   

I can't but help compare this to the Ford Model T, released in 1908, and mass produced in force by 1914.   Competitors took years to take on Ford en mass.  The model T was so successful, the first model car to surpass Model T production run was the Volkswagen beetle in 1972!  Samsung has already outsold the iphone in recent quarters, although not nearly as profitable as Apple.

We have witnessed the smart phone market to be born in it's full glory and in 5 short years highly competitive sales.
For investing, the future holds the greatest gains.  Biotech, nanotech, alternative energy, and the maker community all offer opportunities for companies to be born to mirror Apple's success.   I think the nature of cell phones, tablets, and PC's cannot easily duplicate the same level of success of Apple in other fields.  But even 1/10th the success of Apple is huge for any company.

I continue to be fascinated by the Maker community, and one of the forces 3d printing.  I am watching carefully which company first makes a break to advertise end consumer 3d printer, which I fully expect in the next 5 years to be announced.   Once Pandora's box is open expect innovation in 3d printers to accelerate and consumer pricing to improve dramatically.

Already companies like Airbus and Boeing are embracing 3d printing as part of their design process.

On kickstarter today, I ran across a 3d printer that you can buy, today, for 580 bucks.  It requires your own assembly and paint.   I am amazed that for the price of a hotel stay in NYC, you can print almost any plastic object you desire.  Granted, the resolution isn't what I'd like to see, for that you need MakerBot for 2K dollars.  I can't wait to see the mass production for general public entrant to this market.

Consider selling stock in any company that makes it's living on cheap plastic parts. ;)
First two videos are summary of advantages of 3d printers, and below that, 3d metal printing, below that 3d printing of human organs! (maybe someday food?)



Monday, October 15, 2012

Deflation everywhere, except monetary policy

The typical view many armchair economists take is viewing the capital markets and central bank policies, calling foul when central planners bend or break the law in the spirit of saving the economy.

I agree in spirit that central planning is bad vs free markets.  If a regulated, transparent capital market was set free to evolve on it's own, there is no question in my mind that the world will adapt to change much faster, and efficiently.

But what most miss is part of the problem IS efficiency.  Technology RUTHLESSLY tears down inefficient and helps evolved business and social fabric to a more efficient model.   What efficiency effects are basically less people can do more.  Meaning, you don't need as much middlemen from the Makers to the Consumers.
As this happens, the net result is if your not a maker, or wealthy enough to be a eager consumer, you fall into the cracks.  This group of people is ever widening, as technology moves forward.

What compounds this effect is global trade efficiency, in effect allowing others around the world compete for work.  Net this is a good thing, for people who most desperately needs work can get work.  But the effect when looked at closer can be more personal and disturbing.  Plus global trade raises questions of what is efficiency....and what is fair.

Easier examples of technology efficiency effect is music industry, software makers, open hardware, financial trading, retail distribution, farming, and hosts of other industries.  When you look at each one to see how they have changed and are changing over the last decade, it is easy to see the displacement of workers.

The makers and consumers benefit from a more direct relationship, yielding cheaper prices and more competition.  But the channel distribution now yields less workers.  Consider WalMart vs mom and pop stores across the country, music stores vs iTunes, local book store vs Amazon.
Farming is moving towards 100% robots ...except for on-call mechanics...as cheap labor is driven out by cheaper labor, robots.

When you see the changing landscape, if left up to a more efficient market, we may see honest assessment of unemployment in USA of 25% or more.  Possibly in some areas of Europe of 50%.  By artificially keeping inefficient human processes afloat with Government spending, Central Bank intervention, what is being done is avoiding the reality today in hope a better answer appears tomorrow.
Extrapolating into the future, (with DOUBLING of technology every 18 months!) this problem will accelerate.  Picture a world where renewable energy accounts for 75% of energy use, self driving cars, planes, google glass, and robotic factories.  A world where a flexible robot can be easily adapted to a wide variety of custom tasks.  This is NOT a world of full employment, for those less skilled simply cannot compete vs automation.

So when people pound the ground that we need to return to an efficient capital marketplace, you best be a maker, a skilled specialist, or a well positioned consumer, for the rest may not like the world that leaves them out.

Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Makers

I am going to deviate from the theme of this blog, and start covering Makers and financial news.
Why? Because I believe Making is a key role of America for the next 100 years.

America is a story of making, since its founding.  America Maked and the world taked.
Since Reagan with trade agreements favoring China and the world, America has reduced making substantially.

The new Making revolution I am witnessing is the start of the rebirth, not just of America, but of western society.   As it grows it will change society view of the order of things.  It will also bring investment opportunities the likes of Microsoft and Apple to us.  The fun will be spotting the biggest winners and investing.   For more on making click label Maker on bottom of any article or here.

My friend Bob sent me a link on a nifty video of a Heli-copter-thingie that someone made.
I highly recommend full screen, in a quiet room, watch and enjoy.

Heli showreel late summer 2012 from Esben Nielsen on Vimeo.

Friday, October 5, 2012

Manufacturing Revolution Revisited

This past weekend I went to MakerFaire in NYC.  This is related to the post I did titled American Manufacturing Revolution.  The phrase Maker in this context refers to people who...make things.  As an engineer, I focus on 3d printers, Arduino, Rasberry Pi, Robotics, and manufacturing machines like laser cutters.   However Maker can refer to anyone who makes including artists, musicians, foodies, etc.

I linked to various terms above if unfamiliar with terms.   Seeing the capabilities of the 3d printers, the influence of Arduinos, and robot progress, I am very convinced we are back in the IBM PC days of 1981 for this new technological revolution.  I believe 3d printers and other related tech are moving towards Moores law, where we will start seeing great progress in capability every 18 months.

It is not out of the question that in 16 years, we will have a sort of Star-Trek machine that can create anything we want made of metal and plastic, even simple electronics.  30 years, print your own cell phone.

Like any new trend, the gains are greatest earlier relative to the previous tech level.

So I bring you below videos from Makerfaire.  As for investing, well...I messed up on that one.  When I posted the American Manufacturing Revolution post in Dec 2011, if I immediately bought 3d printer stocks, I would have done fan-tastic.  Not to say its too late, but I don't want to buy in earnest unless I see a fire sale after such a quick rise.  I may buy a little of each for now. (100 shares)
Stocks to look at: ssys , ddd, ARCM (Swedish)
More interesting is 3d printing organs...yes, you read that right.  ONVO , (TOO SPECULATIVE!)
Makerbot is NOT yet public, but I believe they are moving in that direction.  They closed sourced their latest printer.

Videos!


Friday, December 16, 2011

American Manufacturing Revolution

I am of the belief America is kick starting a manufacturing revolution.  Sound crazy?
It is if you think of the mass manufacturing of GM and classic manufacturing.

Those types of large scale manufacturing is likely dead in the USA for the rest of my lifetime.
The kind of manufacturing I am referring to is smaller, agile, cost effective companies.

In affect, the future GM's of today, that start up right here in the USA, and when reaching a point of mass employment, likely off shoring the labor.  Most of these companies likely won't off shore at all, as they won't need more than 50 people to do "huge" business.  There maybe 1,000's if not 100,000's of these businesses springing up over the years ahead.  To some, employment of only millions and not 10's of millions is not revolution, it is to me.  For these businesses will leverage the cutting edge of the internet and technology to start up their businesses with pennies on the dollar of just a decade ago.

In effect, you the reader, can start up your own company, with very little personal investment.

Now that I have set the tone of the manufacturing revolution size, lets look at what is happening.
Below are examples, but by no means is the only examples.  I list enough in each category to show the revolutionary change in the American Landscape for new businesses.

Free Business Software
There is Google docs, that provides spread sheets, word processing, and other tools that can be shared across the world, real time, to collaborate and communicate.  For example, you can create a spreadsheet and work with someone else, real time, seeing each change as it occurs, with the person across the globe.
Did I mention, Free?
You can communicate, using Google Voice, make free phone calls in the USA/Canada, and free calls across the world with other Google-ites.

You can create virtual conference rooms, using Google hangout, share a video conference with anyone.

Also, share desktops, instant messaging, and control each other's pcs using software like Adobe connect now.

Plus find 1,000's of free programs at many hosting sites, including http://sourceforge.net/ .
In a nut shell, for information based tools, free or near free costs, just need a PC for 400 bucks, and an internet connection at your local starbucks.

Cheap  Tools
For manufacturing type work, there is now many open source projects to create physical machines.  The entire blueprints are free, and you can make the device at home.  Or you can buy the device, pre-made from a manufacturer.  The best example of such a devices is a 3d-printer.  You can "print" objects, like a chess piece, using this device.  Such a device is typically 10,000's of dollars.

But you can buy such a  tool at http://www.makerbot.com/ for under 1,000 bucks.
Then you can download pre-made 3d objects to print at http://www.thingiverse.com/.

There are other projects similar,  such as laser cutter at laseraur.  Check out http://www.buildlog.net/blog/ for other tools.

For non-physical products, based on the internet (the Cloud), there are cheap options here too.
You can download a pre-canned server at http://www.turnkeylinux.org/ , and host it at Amazon E2 cloud for 0.09 cents an hour!

Cheap Labor
Need someone to do a specific technical task?  Maybe have someone do some proto-typing woodwork?  Or need an architect?
Just shop for the right person at the right price to do the work you need, freaking dirt cheap.
No need to have employees, if you can bid out the detailed work piecemeal to specialists.

When I see the prices people will do some of this work for, I am stunned.
You may make more money painting walls than doing technical skilled work.
Check out http://www.ifreelance.com/ for all sorts of job bids.
Have a specific techie job needed, try http://www.getacoder.com/ or http://www.project4hire.com/ .
Bid on construction work at http://www.bidclerk.com/ .

Cheap Venture Capital Raising
OK, so you have leveraged Free Software, cheap labor, and cheap tools.  You now have your idea started, enough to seek funds to take it all the way.   What chances do you have a bank will lend you money for your start-up?   Borrow from relatives?  Seek venture capital?

All of these methods are very hard to get money, and involve potentially high consequences for the risk everyone takes on the project.

So, how do you minimize risk? by SPREADING the risk among 100's, or 1,000's of people, each risking 1-100 bucks to fund your project.  To boot, you can give people first run's of your product, for a pre-purchase price.

Just head on over to http://www.kickstarter.com/ for funding.  Create a video, set up your funding requests, and watch the funding come pouring in.
I found several projects that I liked.  I could become a real addict to this web site.  I want to buy stock in this company!
Check these projects out:
Thin iphone wallet / stand
Connect smartphone or tablet to any external storage via wifi
Use a small little device to "interface" the real world to the web, by using built in motion, sound, and heat sensor to gather information and trigger action.

Summary
This is an incredible revolution that the media is just simply missing.  I see this as earth shattering as the last industrial revolution, back in the early 1900's.
But the successes will be 100,000's of small companies, with the rare exception of a company growing to fortune 500 status.   The average pay of these new workers will be substantially lower than the Union workers of the last industrial age.  They will need to innovate, work hard, to secure their niche 

Video about Kickstarter







Quick video on makerbot