Chart support and Market failure of 40% plus

First, I am confident the market will be cut in half from the highs, it may take a year or two, but we will get there.  Since there is no rush to get there, its important to look for bounces to unwind longs and/or go short.

The market created a failure last week, there is a new "lower lower" vs a "higher high", the market character has changed.  We are now in a bear market for the next few years, like it or not.   There are ways out, for example, if congress issues 8 or 16 trillion dollars in debt to match or exceed the money spend on 2020, the market will go to new highs.   With Democrat's in office there is zero chance of deficit spending to this magnitude, that only happens under Republicans in office.  This isn't a about which party is better, its simply a fact, look it up. (since Reagan, before it was the opposite)
I'll write up more what's ahead, for now these are the areas to watch:

S&P 500 close below 417 and the market is going down hard.  First support is 433, I think we may bounce off of it this week (today?).  To learn more watch the first half of this video.  High level picture of the market failure (top green line) and the target (bottom green line) and we may pierce that one.

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Another you tuber worth watching, he is typically very positive.

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Oh, and there is calls for dollar rally, I think this is true, but it will be interesting when we must get off this train.

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Pandemic Ending

 I believe in about two weeks, the pandemic is over!  COVID will be around decades.  But the pandemic phase is ending, just in time for St Pattys!  I’ll post graphs in a week or so to document the end of this scourge! 

Are you ready for a 5 to 10 year stock market high?

Since 2006 I have been concerned about the day the market makes a long term top, and we are finally here.  For me its pretty odd, as I have no magical place to put investments.   I do have some in Bitcoin, which should be cut down to $20K again, (an eventual upside I still think is 100K and higher), Gold miners should also be brutalized.   I expect flight to Bonds to eventually happen causing rates to collapse and bond values to skyrocket.  AFTER that happens, we could have a dollar crisis.  

The problem is when is the top, has it passed? Is it this week? The motto is 'don't fight the Fed', and they are about to taper.  That should help create resistance and may inadvertently trigger a market downturn, like the great depression.

We think there is inflation, and there is, from distribution and resource constraints.  But that isn't monetary inflation, so with the FED initiating steps to curb inflation, it is a mis-read that its money inflation.

Don't believe me, lets take a look at the USD value index.

The US dollar is around 1996-2002 levels, hardly a crisis. (yet!)

The question is how to navigate the transition period ahead, as previously mentioned, we have historic margin in the market, with insider selling at record highs.  That means the public is buying stocks with borrowed money while the corporate insiders are selling.  Even Mr. Musk and his brother sold a bit of stock near the high.

Long term, I have huge faith in buying INDIA ETF's, I'll end up putting a chunk into India, I'll post the ETF's when I do.  I also have some in JEPI, hoping it fare wells with market turmoil over time.

A couple of videos related to this.

Small Caps about to crash

Cycle analysis, potential double top in Nasdaq. 343 by March

VIOLENT swings on the SP500 ahead.

Layoffs and Bear Market head

A Cancelled January

UPDATE: 1-9-22

NYTimes has generally confirmed what I below wrote 2 days later.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/01/09/us/omicron-cities-cases-hospitals.html?referringSource=articleShare

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 As a follow up to my last post, A Cancelled Christmas, I'd like to review how things have progressed in the last two weeks with a series of charts.

USA

NJ 

NJ has reported about 180,000 cases since Jan 1st.

Florida

Florida has reported 320,000 new COVID cases since Jan 1st.

ICU availability in Florida

I couldn't find a chart of ICU stats that cover all of Florida.  But I did find an interactive map, and I took a snapshot around "the villages", currently at 74% ICU bed usage.   Remember, people go to the ICU after fighting COVID for days or weeks before it gets that bad.    For example, two weeks ago there was 2,000 COVID patients in the hospital across Florida, today its over 8,000.  That means in two weeks we should have 5,000 to 32,000 patients in the hospital, depending when the peak hits.  If the peak is a week out, I would assume hospital capacity will be reached.

It shows 31 hospitals with average 9 available ICU beds = 279 

Image below.

ICU availability in NJ

Using the same approach for NJ, I covered the NJ/Staten island area to avoid NYC hospitals.  The ICU occupancy is 45%, with average 26 beds over 38 hospitals for total of 988 available ICU beds.

Image below.

Final thoughts

COVID is everywhere, I know over a dozen people right now that have COVID.  The VAST majority its not a life threatening illness when vaccinated with a booster.   My continual concern isn't about getting COVID and dying, its getting COVID at a time hospitals are stretched, and due to lack of capacity dying or having a more severe illness.

So in the spirit of a cancelled Christmas, its a Cancelled January!   But I do expect we are about to see the peak and the final hurrah of this plague.   I will eventually get COVID, my goals is to catch it as as the hospital capacity is opening up rather than filling up.

Good luck!