Since 2006 I have been concerned about the day the market makes a long term top, and we are finally here. For me its pretty odd, as I have no magical place to put investments. I do have some in Bitcoin, which should be cut down to $20K again, (an eventual upside I still think is 100K and higher), Gold miners should also be brutalized. I expect flight to Bonds to eventually happen causing rates to collapse and bond values to skyrocket. AFTER that happens, we could have a dollar crisis.
The problem is when is the top, has it passed? Is it this week? The motto is 'don't fight the Fed', and they are about to taper. That should help create resistance and may inadvertently trigger a market downturn, like the great depression.
We think there is inflation, and there is, from distribution and resource constraints. But that isn't monetary inflation, so with the FED initiating steps to curb inflation, it is a mis-read that its money inflation.
Don't believe me, lets take a look at the USD value index.
The US dollar is around 1996-2002 levels, hardly a crisis. (yet!)
The question is how to navigate the transition period ahead, as previously mentioned, we have historic margin in the market, with insider selling at record highs. That means the public is buying stocks with borrowed money while the corporate insiders are selling. Even Mr. Musk and his brother sold a bit of stock near the high.
Long term, I have huge faith in buying INDIA ETF's, I'll end up putting a chunk into India, I'll post the ETF's when I do. I also have some in JEPI, hoping it fare wells with market turmoil over time.
A couple of videos related to this.
Cycle analysis, potential double top in Nasdaq. 343 by March
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