Macro and Chart Videos

I share these select videos to help you understand what shapes my view, I welcome you sharing a video that refines these views or counters them, enjoy!

We are in the Fourth Turning, this video explains it.  World history and how every ~60 years the entire economic model hits  a crisis period that lasts about 20 years.  Our crisis period is 2008 though 2028.  It is my obsession to be 'ready' for the next boom.

This video also lays out how we each fall into how this plays out.  I am part of the Awakening type.
My role is to fix the messes, left by others.  Boy does that ring true!

A very high level video of the power of Defi (which I completely believe in) on how it will help the world.

A good chart analysis comparing our current situation to the 1929 era, and the similar trap the Federal Reserve finds itself in.

A reading of an essay from a global macro analyst, talking about mechanics of global monetary policy.
This one has a focus around China and CNY currency and its future devaluation.

A good video explaining the current valuation of Bitcoin, and the setup towards 100K

A reading about the global financial system and how critical bank loans are to the world economy, and lack of lending will not lead to a growing economy.

The final stock blow off, and lost economic decade ahead

 In my post All Easy Buttons pressed, the top is near, I believe the USA is near a stock market top.  The timing is impossible to spot the exact top, I think it will be January.   But the top is relative to actions taken, so its impossible to target the exact level or date.

What I can say with complete certainty the stock market got here due to government and Federal Reserve Bank intervention in an attempt to 'avoid pain'.   In a capitalistic market, you WANT pain, for pain helps the market regulate investment.  For example, if oil companies have profit challenges and price problems, it could accelerate investment in alternative energy.  However it is very unpopular to allow capitalism yield higher cost energy.  So the can is kicked by any way possible.  Now take this action and apply it to the entire US economy.

Does anyone believe the US economy is at the healthiest it has ever been in US history?  Not only that, that the years ahead will yield much better economic results?  If so, then the stock prices are well deserved.

In my opinion the free money bonanza that accelerated under President Trump, doubled down with the pandemic.  The year 2021 spending was approved by Trump and Republicans.  The 2022 spending will require Republican approval, but will block free money with a Democratic president.   

The inflation we are experiencing in my opinion is a result of economic shock combined with Just in Time manufacturing, and innovation over the last twenty years.  This will force the Federal Reserve to make a policy mistake, triggering the market decline, just like 1929.  To learn more, watch this video here.

We have conditioned the US economy that the public and companies are NOT the engine of the economy, but the government and Federal Reserve is.  So with the next decline the entire country will ask for more quick fixes, the next round should really crush the US economic dream.  

The intervention will 'require'...(click for video that explains these items)

Lower interest rates (real rates may even go negative!)
MORE free money by aligning the Federal Reserve bank and US treasury resulting in corporate and direct to people (universal Basic Income)
Expand and accelerate federal reserve buying private assets including banks!
Try to fix things with higher taxes on the top 0.01%, but eventually top 5%...
Issue price controls as the problems are blamed on the 'greedy corporations'.

This will result in massive shocks to the US economy, that I don't think will yield good results. 
Peoples investments must be defensive for an ever increasing stock market may not be in the USA future in the decade ahead.  The cracks are many, from China's energy shocks, the largest ponzi scheme in history blowing up in China real estate,  price shocks in natural resources,   Amazon and Apple issuing earnings warnings in the year ahead, and threats to extended US supply crisis.
I am working to create the right mix of investments for me, and I will share my view when I am ready.  For now, that's why I am in Bitcoin, India ETF's, and revenue stream ETFs.

All easy buttons pressed, the top is near

I fully believe a generational market top will be between Sept 2nd through January 2022.  With a 13 year bull run, it is immaterial which month the ultimate top is in.  The only reason I am not stating the top is in is first, I cannot know, but second the fear indicator is high, this leaves room for a rally to resume.

Feel free to click on links when provided to learn more.

Inflation or Inflation?

Consumer cost inflation is very high, and likely to continue.  Cheap goods come from China, and they are in an energy crisis.  That means ALL goods from China will have costs go up and export higher costs to the world.  Pair that with transportation skyrocket costs and local production disruptions, everything is destined to go up.    I actually do think some of it is transitory, but most things will never return to 2019 pricing.  Higher prices will cause economic negative impact to profits and growth.

People are demanding higher wages for SOME jobs, and other jobs will see pressure for higher wages to adjust for cost of living.  This will force some jobs to be outsourced or reduce company hiring.

Asset inflation of houses and stock market will be under pressure as people have less money to put into these assets.

China exporting inflation, then deflation.

China is the second largest economy in the world, and their entire country is pinned on the most epic ponzi scheme the world has ever seen, real estate.   Evergrande is the tip of a huge iceberg as we see a domino effect of failures.  The west in pursuit of returns has invested in China's real estate ponzi schemes, and China deflationary collapse will hit world.  Pair these woes with China having rolling power outages and an exodus of foreign companies causing millions to lose their jobs, China is facing one heck of a deflationary collapse.  

Oil, coal, and natural gas.

Fossil fuels are rising in price worldwide.  Europe is facing a crisis on not having enough natural gas to make it through the winter.   While some like to blame 'green power' for this, there is also many countries forcing higher prices for their gains.  Russia is using their natural gas supply as a weapon to Europe, and OPEC is taking advantage of the lower gas production from the USA due to the collapse of fraking.  Further coal China shortages is forcing coal prices outside of China higher as China is ordered to secure fuel "at any price".

USA - All Easy buttons pressed

The US has pressed all the easy buttons to goose the economy since 2008.  Low interest rates, trillions of free money, under Trump very low corporate tax and low tax to 'pull US money' from overseas.  As a result, there is very little easy buttons to press to goose more out of the economy.  Does anyone really think if we enter a recession, lowing 30 year borrowing rates from 3% to 1% will spur material growth?

US dollar IS the global reserve currency

The global reserve currency status is very much mis-understood.  If the US cut back issuing new dollars, it will have the effect of every other currency experiencing a rising dollar value.  This will force other countries to also reduce their spending to keep their currency in a 'trading range' those countries find acceptable for pricing in the global economy.  In effect, when the US cuts new dollars, so goes the world.  If the US increases dollar creation, others are more able to increase their currency creation due to currency pricing compared to dollar valuation.  Countries that fail to curtail a rising dollar, will pay a huge economic price as debt priced in dollars will crush companies in that country.

So if America cuts spending due to fears of debt creation, the world will also cut spending, this means a global slowdown.

US Stock markets are at extreme historically high prices

US stocks are priced for perfection for the years ahead, any realization of missing perfection jeopardizes stock valuations.   Using stock market data between 1928 and 2021, stock are priced for -6% returns over the decade ahead.  

The only way to kick the can, more - Free Money & demand pulled forward.

January 2021 I wrote "So we have a Democratic leadership, free money for everyone.  As long as ... Free money to the people will flow, heavily, to gambling, ala Gamestop style or the market in general.  It will also flow heavily to Bitcoin."

My concern is the free money train is finally going to be over, and there will be a multi-year hangover to deal with.  We have heard the hard line Republicans are taking over debt, and the Democrats I don't think have the will to blow past their objections.  So we are repeating my concerns on January 2021 "I expect Republicans to enforce fiscal discipline much more than they did with in 2016-2020 during 'good times'.  With a crippled economy they will double down the pain in hopes of winning elections."

With free money ending, the fake demand ends, and the poverty stricken America hangover can resume.

If I get this wrong, as I did in January 2021, approval of a  large enough free money bonanza could kick the market out for continuing highs until the free money isn't large enough to sustain the new day traders of 2020.

Conclusion

We are very close to a multi-year high, potentially 5+ years, with a 50% market cut (potentially 80%, but I doubt it)   However monetary action does matter.  if the US resumes free money for everyone the market high is likely quite a bit out.  China stops the worlds largest ponzi scheme from collapsing and resumes inflating the bubble, or OPEC and RUSSIA provide maximum energy output my view would change.

Barring these actions, it is not a great time to buy for a 20% gain, but instead good to take some risk off.

Risk off can be US bonds or diversifying into growth countries like India. Alternately take a chance on a deflationary asset like Bitcoin which may do very well in a deflationary collapse.  Good luck!