Leading up to April 9th I went heavy short. With news of explosions of Iran combined with 5 days of market weakness, a flash crash maybe on the table.
If we get an extreme market down, I expect SPY 4900-4800 range to hold. If correct, the counter rally will be very painful if short.
Its very hard to cover shorts when your finally in the green. Lessons from the past, nothing goes in a straight line. I may go long or simply wait to get reshort.
If we break on a closing basis SPY of 4800 its going to get very interesting, and being short would be huge. But I cant take that chance with such a sudden drop.
If you look at the market leader NVDA, it has been moving sideways since first week in March. This is either eating time off the clock for a new explosion up or there is material selling occurring since then. If the latter once the late comers have exhausted their purchases, we can expect a 20-25% cut in price.
Since NVDA market cap dwarfs all other stocks in the S&P 500, this would be a material top until a new 'growth story' like AI with NVDA can drive the market higher.
Consider stops to keep profits and be ready with some cash. I expect this bear market be a up, down, up, down, repeat through the election.
This blog started in 2008 with the pending global financial crisis was about to begin. Since then, I have been concerned as the global financial system and the future of Americans financial future.
Back in 2009, I called out the demographic challenges, the future decade of inflation, and the decade of increasing interest rates. Since then in January 2020 I raised the pending pandemic.
Since then I dramatically reduced my post-rants and typically post only when I see more extreme situations.
I been following YouTubers that are very good, they have more time and ability to share information than I do. We are on the precipice of a financial crisis that will be felt for a decade. AI will produce immense wealth, for the few. If you have money you can increase your gains providing you can own part of these companies. If you don't, things will get harder.
I urge you to learn more on what the world is facing, and get ideas on what you can do.
I think we are in a bear market now. What that means is while the market trends down, we will have insane rallies and resume the downtrend. If we break all time highs, then this thesis is wrong. Otherwise I think I’ll be covering the remainder of my shorts this week.
My goal is to slowly over the year to add to india (INDA) for long term stability, and income. The remainder I’ll trade in and out, mostly going short st toppish rallies but also going long in extreme pullbacks I may even cover some shorts, put on some longs, and sell the one that goes against me.
Looks like I had it right last week, load up short. The action Monday and Tuesday was to shake people like me off the shorts. The market is on the line for a material market downturn. I am still short, but the last two days I did take some off the table.
