However, the dollar valuations doesn't go in a straight line, they rebound.
So what could cause a rebound? This stock market bull, recently turned bearish explains one aspect.
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Long-term investing—unlike short-term trading—tends to perform well when underlying investments are fueled by economic growth. For much of modern history, population growth has been the simplest and most reliable driver of that growth. As populations expand, so too does economic output, consumption, and innovation.
However, the world is now entering uncharted territory. For the first time in human history, many nations—including the U.S.—are approaching or have fallen below replacement-level fertility, with fewer than one child per adult. Simultaneously, the U.S. is curbing both legal and illegal immigration, historically one of its strongest levers for demographic and economic vitality.
But don’t worry—we have a new lever: AI-driven productivity. In the short term (2–10 years), AI will likely fill gaps in labor force participation, enabling major efficiency gains and potentially offsetting some demographic headwinds. Productivity could jump 100% to even 1000% in certain sectors.
Yet this is not a generational solution. Like any technology, AI’s exponential gains will eventually plateau. And when it does, we’ll still face the same structural issues: fewer workers, aging populations, and flatlining demand growth.
Meanwhile, the U.S. faces a geopolitical challenge of its own making. In its effort to "rebalance global fairness," America is increasingly pursuing international policies and trade frameworks that seek win-lose outcomes—with the U.S. on the winning side. Even if these lopsided arrangements succeed in the short term, how long will the rest of the world accept them?
History provides a clear answer: Sustainable global growth requires perceived mutual benefit. Nations do not tolerate long-term disadvantage, and global systems that depend on asymmetric power tend to erode over time. Today, we’re seeing early signs of decoupling, as countries look to reduce dependency on the U.S. and pursue more equitable or self-reliant paths.
AI could accelerate this shift. Unlike past technological revolutions, AI is not confined to proprietary, walled gardens. Much of its power is openly accessible—downloadable, customizable, and deployable by any motivated government or organization. This democratization of capability means productivity leaps are no longer the exclusive domain of the West. It also has the unfortunate side effect of dramatic reduction of being a leading world consumer as US wages on average depress.
The U.S. had a choice. It could have continued leading through trust, partnership, and innovation—quietly shaping global systems while benefiting immensely from them. Instead, by trying to secure overt advantages, it may awaken a more self-sufficient, multipolar world.
In the near term, the U.S. might surge ahead—leveraging AI, reconfiguring labor, and driving GDP and corporate profits to new heights. But once the easy gains are realized, the question remains: How will the U.S. maintain global influence and economic dominance if others no longer rely on its leadership or accept its terms?
The take away is, invest in 1-5 year growth, but depending on your investment goals hedge with world investments. See link at top of this blog for some ideas.
I have to say, I am completely underwhelmed by any downside action. I sold majority of index shorts, but do have shorts on 'weak' companies. And perhaps the issue here, maybe the market leaders are pulling the index up while weak companies go down.
My puts on individual companies are doing fine, and I'll let that ride. I am long gold, GBTC, and some nuclear companies (SMR).
If we break above last Fridays high, then we will likely go up to retest the all time highs.
That puts us into July-August for any material weakness.
The backdrop of lower USD, higher interest rates, and some international bond issues still exist. If other countries, like Japan, have bond issues, that HELPS American bonds. So perhaps as the world has increasing pressure on their debt, it will kick the can for USA for a bit.
I still like international as a long term investment and I am looking to add.
I'll take the long weekend and rethink how to deploy.
Enjoy the ride!
Moody's was last credit agency to downgrade USA credit, first time in 100 years we are not AAA rated.
The current administration wants to devalue the USD, so I would expect President Trump to be happy we are enabling his vision. Careful what you wish for!
Posted on April 7th a short term bottom, and that proved correct.
Started looking April 23rd for "next push" to make an extended high and we got it March 11th.
We will see next week if Friday was a gift. We should make a new low over the months ahead. I am actually a little optimistic beyond that low for a mega rally unlike humanity has ever seen. The advancements of AI should create an explosion of discoveries and productivity in shortest period humanity has ever experienced. I will be watching for a bottom around Q4, with some chop into 2026 before we gain traction. The next rally will likely be very bifurcated, as sectors who benefit from AI will not be universal.
I am interested in when the USD will be stabilize into a "new world order" valuation.
My 2025–2028 investment bias is laid out in “American assets declining ahead” If you don’t share my POV, feel free to skip my posts.
Below is a concise stock screener with focus on global ETF's, currency related investments, select countries and U.S. tech names. Click the “CHATGPT” link to pull up any ETF and ask questions.
Red-highlighted columns flag areas of heightened risk following the U.S. tariff scare on April 7. Bright-green items are where I’ll deploy new capital, timing purchases around the expected summer downturn (July/August) based on dividend yields, April 7 resilience, and international growth potential.
Always seek a professional investment advisor. For educational purposes only.
Good International Investments seem to be DWX, SHLD, MOO, and in next leg down XAIX , ROBO. See below Analysis of how much was lost on Tariff Scare and the upside YTD.
Direct access to the live document, with short-term screener: [click here]
We may have the FED do an emergency rate cut, or some sort of Trump announcement. When that occurs THAT is a "sell on good news" event. I will be reloading my shorts then.
The market can float around here through May, but ideal turn is in the next 1-2 weeks. SPY should NOT break 600 on a weekly close. If it does, I do have to question the POV I currently have. I think the more realistic high will be SPY 575-585 range. (SPY is S&P 500 ETF)
Enjoy the market counter rally, I am looking for opportunities for the next leg down into July-August.
This is all SHORT TERM conversation, on LONG TERM front, US market is going lower. For Long Term, looking for SPY 370-450 bottom. as we get closer, happy to tighten the range.
If we move to 370, it will bring us back to Jan 2020 levels. Currently I consider that THE lowest target, however, USA is changing the rules, and the target can change.
I expect some sort of positive announcement in the next 7 business days, to goose the market higher. One maybe an emerge rate drop. I am NOT short the market since April 7th. However on the positive news I will look to reshort.
Bitcoin should rally, Gold may pullback, and markets moving up to the highs April 9th.
News that may cause a longer rally is China political change, Russia war change, or Trump dropping tariff strategy.
