We may have the FED do an emergency rate cut, or some sort of Trump announcement. When that occurs THAT is a "sell on good news" event. I will be reloading my shorts then.
The market can float around here through May, but ideal turn is in the next 1-2 weeks. SPY should NOT break 600 on a weekly close. If it does, I do have to question the POV I currently have. I think the more realistic high will be SPY 575-585 range. (SPY is S&P 500 ETF)
Enjoy the market counter rally, I am looking for opportunities for the next leg down into July-August.
This is all SHORT TERM conversation, on LONG TERM front, US market is going lower. For Long Term, looking for SPY 370-450 bottom. as we get closer, happy to tighten the range.
If we move to 370, it will bring us back to Jan 2020 levels. Currently I consider that THE lowest target, however, USA is changing the rules, and the target can change.
So you go long SPY at 601 ?
ReplyDeletegreat question! Really will need to be a reason to re-evaluate what is going on! US is flipping 3 trillion of debt later this year and the world doesn't want (they will at some degree) buy our bonds. If rates go up, that pinches borrowing costs. With China shipping down dramatically, US companies have less goods to sell. With buying goods overseas up, and prices too high for consumers, it will crunch corporate profits. Every downturn is tied to corporate weakness. SPY is rallying and corporations are showing great forecast next quarter with all of this, obviously, I am missing something and need to re-evaluate.
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