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Wednesday, May 21, 2025

US Stock Market Destination

 


US Stocks

The chart above is not meant to be literal, but those are the levels for the S & P 500 may find some strength.  A break below 480 will yield a new low of TBD level.  I would not be surprised if we S&P 500 go from high of 6100 down by 50% cut to 3000.  Sound impossible? The market would be valued  at October 2019 level, less than 5 years ago.   That is not too far fetched for a correction.

US Bonds

Today the US Treasury market for 10 year bonds took a beating.  From April 4th to now interest rates have moved from 3.8% to 4.6%!  If you own US bonds, your portfolio took a beating.

Real Estate

Mortgage rates are typically based on 10 year treasury rate plus a spread (risk premium).  If US 10 year bonds yields continue to rise, mortgage rates will too.  That will apply pressure on real-state costs.

I can't stress enough to consider hedging assets outside the USA.

Read more at American Assets Declining Ahead

After market adjusts, I think core AI & robotics will be the next leaders, replacing older tech giant leaders.  However legacy stocks will remain suppressed.  Key is capital preservation and deployment.


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