Santa rally?

 I think we are in a bear market now.  What that means is while the market trends down, we will have insane rallies and resume the downtrend.  If we break all time highs, then this thesis is wrong.   Otherwise I think I’ll be covering the remainder of my shorts this week.

My goal is to slowly over the year to add to india (INDA) for long term stability, and income. The remainder I’ll trade in and out, mostly going short st toppish rallies but also going long in extreme pullbacks   I may even cover some shorts, put on some longs, and sell the one that goes against me.

The down trend will go into 2024

Back on failure line

 Looks like I had it right last week, load up short.  The action Monday and Tuesday was to shake people like me off the shorts.  The market is on the line for a material market downturn.  I am still short, but the last two days I did take some off the table.

Good luck

That was quick!

There was no follow through BEFORE the market open.

I put sells in to sell about half my shorts on the open, and stop losses on the rest.

Good luck!

I am short the market

I have been ultra quiet on the market, as I do think America is decently positioned for deglobalization.  But the shift from globalization to deglobalization should bring the world major pain, and China is getting hit insanely hard already.  America does have financial stresses itself. Friday the stock market is on the edge of breaking the up trend line from 2020.

This past week I am now over 50% short the market between short term bonds and shorting.  My current 401k is in fixed 5% rate.   Next week is key to confirm a bear market.  

If we get a close next week BELOW Friday's low, we are in a technical bear market.  In my opinion cash is king, which can take in the form of 1 year treasury.

This doesn't mean the market crashes, it just means we are in a multi-year downtrend.

The KEY numbers are breaking the low Friday, this will break the uptrend from April 2020.  The next key is breaking the uptrend from 2008. The next key is the up trend line from 1982,  The worst possible trend line is the uptrend from 1942.  The unthinkable, impossible uptrend line is from the bottom of the great depression, starting from 1932. 

It is impossible to know which line is the bottom, but one of them should be.  I am actually optimistic for America in a world of turmoil, as our economy is positioned well for the future.  Given that optimism,  my disposition is rock bottom is the uptrend from 2008 (next year) or 1982 around second half of 2025. (My target) 

Investing in this environment is really tough.  Buying 1 year treasuries offers a decent return, almost no risk (unless republicans cause a default!), and ability to pivot if we hit rapidly a 2008 bottom.  Bitcoin could come into it's own, but it could fail miserably.  With Bitcoin ETF being approved in the next 6 months, we could see a pop up.  I no longer like gold, but in the short run it could be a surprise upside.  Countries like India that I have posted optimistically is also poised to lose millions of jobs as lower-class office jobs are replaced with AI.  With USA being reserve currency and leader in AI, this could be a winner take all moment.

My gamble is TZA, triple inverse small US companies, that unfortunately I think will get crushed in this wave down.   Click here for a really bullish youtuber who on Friday has become concerned.  Good luck!

2008 and now

The global economic forces of change culminated in 2008, and rather than allow the free market economy to find new footing, the global financial system decided to try to keep things 'normal'.

Fast forward to 2023, the rich vs the poor has never been greater in our democracy, the middle class can barely pay their mortgages, and consumers have over 1 Trillion dollars in credit card debt with interest rates of over 30%.

I'll be posting soon, the stock market will eventually reflect the future earnings.  For now, money has to go somewhere, and the world looks at America as the best of the bunch, keeping money in our stocks and bonds.

To see how the world has changed economically, a good, but rather long winded video