UPDATE: 1-9-22
NYTimes has generally confirmed what I below wrote 2 days later.
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As a follow up to my last post, A Cancelled Christmas, I'd like to review how things have progressed in the last two weeks with a series of charts.
USA
NJ
Florida has reported 320,000 new COVID cases since Jan 1st.
ICU availability in Florida
I couldn't find a chart of ICU stats that cover all of Florida. But I did find an interactive map, and I took a snapshot around "the villages", currently at 74% ICU bed usage. Remember, people go to the ICU after fighting COVID for days or weeks before it gets that bad. For example, two weeks ago there was 2,000 COVID patients in the hospital across Florida, today its over 8,000. That means in two weeks we should have 5,000 to 32,000 patients in the hospital, depending when the peak hits. If the peak is a week out, I would assume hospital capacity will be reached.
It shows 31 hospitals with average 9 available ICU beds = 279
Image below.
ICU availability in NJ
Using the same approach for NJ, I covered the NJ/Staten island area to avoid NYC hospitals. The ICU occupancy is 45%, with average 26 beds over 38 hospitals for total of 988 available ICU beds.
Image below.
Final thoughts
COVID is everywhere, I know over a dozen people right now that have COVID. The VAST majority its not a life threatening illness when vaccinated with a booster. My continual concern isn't about getting COVID and dying, its getting COVID at a time hospitals are stretched, and due to lack of capacity dying or having a more severe illness.
So in the spirit of a cancelled Christmas, its a Cancelled January! But I do expect we are about to see the peak and the final hurrah of this plague. I will eventually get COVID, my goals is to catch it as as the hospital capacity is opening up rather than filling up.
Good luck!
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