Going into this holiday season, I was concerned that COVID infections would rise, especially after Thanksgiving. Unfortunately, the infection rate is way worse than I expected. There is some evidence that Omicron is less deadly than other strains. However the exact figure of less deadly is not known, is it 10%, 50%, 75% less deadly? While 10% is good news, I am not confident enough to go back to normal.
The infection rate of Omicron is 400% (r0 = 10, 1 infects 10 people) more infectious than the original COVID strain (r0=2.5), so even if less deadly the number of cases at the same time should wipe out the benefit "per day of deaths". Its hard to appreciate the exponential growth impact. But graphs can show the effect of exponential growth, for example the graph in NJ below shows the rate of infection occurring:
Notice the STEEP rise on the right, and how materially higher infection rate is growing RIGHT as we hit a cherished holiday. Next week will be an epic pandemic infection rate like never seen before in human history. Lets take an even CLOSER look.
December 13th there was 3,279 new cases reported, 10 days later we are reporting 11,906 cases. After the holidays what is your estimated number of new cases per day? 24,000? 50,000? If we are to believe r0=10, then we should easily hit 100K new cases a day in NJ alone.
This should be the epic final hurrah of COVID, with the peak hitting in the weeks ahead. Post this event I believe we will finally be rid of COVID as an all consuming concern, it will remain with us forever, but we will finally reach enough resistance to slow the spread in the year ahead. Further by mid next year we should finally have a drug available to minimize the chance of being hospitalized.
The Challenge - Passing through the Eye of the storm
But right now, the challenge is what will be the effect on personal health if you get COVID when the hospitals are completely over-run? Will patient care result in better or worse outcomes than we been observing the last few weeks? In my opinion with hospitals over-run, we will run out of ventilators, drug shortages, and worse yet, tight on nurses/doctors to help the sick. (Talking to a nurse, she said one hospital in NJ, all their ventilators are taken by vaccinated people.)
This is my primary concern, to get COVID and the wrong time, and not get the care needed to ensure a positive outcome.
But people aren't dying like before....
Lets assume death is a much lower probability (it lags infection rate by 20-30 days), what else is there to fear? Long term COVID! There is yet any reliable date about percentage of people who have long term COVID, and Omicron is no exception.
If we can make it to the spring, alive, and in good health, I believe we will be FINALLY can move on with COVID being an all consuming topic. For my family, that means a cancelled Christmas, and I hope to see you for many Christmases to come. If visiting people not from your immediate household, I recommend everyone wear genuine masks. (Prefer N95 provides self protection)
No comments:
Post a Comment