US Stocks have topped for at least another 18 months

I am making the call, we have seen a Stock Market high that will not be breached for another 18 months, that is about July 2017 at earliest.    Could be as late as 2020 for markets to return to these levels, who can really say.

Now if you know me, and read here, I have been a bear too long here, and so this is kinda like the boy who cries wolf enough is eventually right.

In post Long Term Investing Signal I pointed out an independent metric you can use to detect market direction changes.  This indicator has been pretty reliable since the 1970's if not before.
The cross happened in October, but wasn't convincingly crossed until the close of the market today.

This bear market is much different than 2000 or 2008, and therefore is much more unpredictable.
In 2000 the USA hyped up the market on tech, and the bubble popped.
The response was the Fed inflated housing through low interest rates and failure of Bush administration to do any regulation on fraud mortgages.   ( See Blame Game ).
That time the world took a heavy dive, but the cause-effect was targeted.  The housing popped, so cover-up and fix the mortgage derivatives.  Part of the solution was to reduce interest rates that have been falling since 1982 even further.

The Fed brought rates to historic lows, and recently increased rates by 0.25 percentage points.   The 'easy' money injection method has just hit the end of the road.

China committed financial fraud dwarfing all of humanity's history.   Recently they started to unravel and all the economic ties are affecting, notably resources.

As economic strains increase, countries focus EXTERIOR rather than interior.  The result is now Saudi Arabia vs Iran, North Korea vs the west, and Russia challenging USA military positioning.   Unfortunately as the financial impact expands, I expect these friction points to increase.

In USA, we still have fraud accounting, suspending mark to market accounting in place since the 1940's in March 2009.  Anyone who tells you our balance sheets are sound are using a broken measurement.  The tool was changed to mark to fantasy, and we are guessing on our financial soundness.

So why all the drama here?
The world governments have interest rates at near zero.  The world has inflated stock markets across the board to near highs.   Housing in many countries are near highs.  Natural resources are at historic lows.  The 'easy inflate economy' buttons have been pushed.  The next easy button is global currency wars, and China is leading the charge.  Some may argue they are not devaluing the Yuan but rather the rich are exporting their wealth.  In any event, the currency hot-potato will begin, the final end game is if-when the USA dollar takes its turn at collapse.  I suspect that will begin January 2017.

I actually am very optimistic of USA chances for a record bounce back after this plays out, but that will depend heavily on politics.

Taking emotion out of this, and using long term indicators, the chart is in.
Click this link to understand this chart.
Sell your stocks? Why not take 50% out after such a nice run for 7 years with a market 300% up?   Where to put it? I really cant say, 10 year Fed bonds are 2.2% and cant fail.  I can say pay off your debts, invest in reducing costs, this is the best action in times of stress.

To the chart Blue line high, orange low is a bear market.  Orange high blue low is a bull market.  A cross of more than 2% is material, and we are hitting that right now.

UPDATE: 1-10-2015
US Currency and global interest rates are the next act in this evolving story.
Of particular note with the FED raising rates recently, we may have seen generational low in interest rates.  If this plays out, again, easy money is behind us.  We had interest rates dropping from 1982 until 2015, thats a pretty good run, and another stresspoint to pile into the others.

My thoughts of the current crossroads in the market

We are at historical times, economically.
Leading up to 2008 crisis, the standard economics taught in the USA since world war 2 was generally in effect.  There was breaking from economic standards starting with Bill Clinton in 2000 with dismantling of Glass-Steagall act put into place in the depths of the Great Depression.

The purpose of these laws was to establish realistic accounting to value banks and keep monetary reserves and risk at acceptable levels.  The reason this is important is so private business does not become public liability if there is an issue.  In 2009 mark to market accounting was suspended.  Mark to market accounting is what non-banks live by.   For example, if you declare your house is worth 300,000 dollars, but the houses near you for equivalent assets sell for 200,000 dollars, you bank will use this information to value your house.

Since 2009 the stock market has risen to historic levels in the USA.  Ignoring the banking sector, corporate America has been doing pretty good, even for a critical eye like myself.   But while the companies are doing good,  the average American has not.  Companies are benefiting from huge gains in technical advancements that enable better profits with less people.

China has been advocated as a world leader of the NEXT generation of economics.  I have question this wisdom many times.  There are two primary drivers for me questioning this conventional wisdom.  First is the historic 1 child per couple and second is insane levels of mal-investment never seen in human history.  The combination of both makes China's future economic leadership questionable.

So here we are at end of August 2015, with China's stock market down 41% two days ago from June high.  USA is down 7% from all time high set on July 17th this past Monday.  As of today the USA SPX is down 6.5% since July 17th.   America is in an epic panic!  down 6.5% in little over 30 days after being up 300% since March 2006.  Oh the horror!

The Stock market was meant to be a risk taking event.  US citizens cannot take risk.  The only question left is what next?

And here my friends, I can no longer advise.  We are entering a world where corporate profits will hit record profits for the next decade, with majority of US citizens losing economic ground.  For the market is this good for the market?    China will need to shift to robotics leaving out 100's of millions of citizens without better income, is this good for the market?

China is actively trying to devalue it's currency along with many other nations to gain an economic edge through manipulation over innovation, is this good for the market?

With the realization that all laws are meaningless illustrated by the willingness of society to accept mark to fantasy accounting as perfectly fine to use logic and rule of law to judge outcome of this current events as at best pathetically optimistic.

We may be entering a time where the market soars beyond anyone's wild dreams leaving out 90% of Americans behind, with the world suffering from innovation investment due to risk tolerance.  We could see the USA market cut in half as it joins the world downturn and the realization of fantasy accounting is just that.

I no longer have faith in gold, oil, or any resource in the face of world economics being turned on it's head.  I have only faith in companies advancing technology to get reliable income for the next decade.   Tesla, Google, Facebook, Amazon (AWS), and others are world leaders in their sectors.

For now, I am stuck in the gold miners, with epic lows I have to think they will double or triple from here.  But who knows.  Good luck.

Market Rumblings

Now the public media is screaming panic over the markets.  Is this the next leg down? Possibly.
As long time readers know, for years now the next issue i said would come as we come closer to 2017.

I honestly don't know where this is going, but we do have several screaming warning signs.
First China's stock market has been in a freefall (chart below), along with natural resources already collapsed months ago.  The world's government bond markets have historically low rates, with some countries requiring YOU PAY THEM to buy their bonds! (negative interest rates).

The VIX (Volatility index) has been off the charts, with the markets not able to price the VIX for 30 minutes on Tuesday.

Gold and gold miners pre-collapsed before all of this.

What makes all of this disturbing is the world has already done everything within reason to keep the market valuation rocketing higher for the past few years.  The Banks since 2009 do not have assets valued by market prices, but rather mark to 'declared value'.   So the banks already have a positive an outlook as possible for valuations.  Combine that with interest rates at historic lows, and the Federal Reserve bank recently purchasing federal bonds directly with Quantitative Easing, owning trillions of US mortgages and bonds.

So the question is, assuming we do start on a year long decline, what will governments do next to spur the next leg back up?  I have no idea what that could be,  please put in comment what you think the world can do to spur demand like was done in 2001 and 2009.

Let me remind readers of a fairly neutral signal that has historically been a good indicator of long term downturns, see post here.

If there is a significant plunge still ahead, I am hoping for a snap back rally in days ahead, that will be the last place to get to safety.

To the charts!

Miners, Energy, and the Market

We sit here today with S&P 500 at 2099, with Gold miners  (GDX 20.29) making slow progress up, energy up, and USD down.

I caution those long the market for years to be nimble, while I am no longer looking out for 2008 crash, we may have a direction change in the wind for the next year.   With resources costs rising, USD falling, and market bubbly we may be ripe for a change in direction.

Tech however I am convinced is always possibly good, providing you hit the right sector of tech.  Robotics, Solar, biotech, and potentially autonomous car manufactures may buck the trend.
Good Luck!

Natural Resources and Beyond

Every news source I hear tells me that oil and natural resources are going to be depressed for years to come.  While I can't say what will happen, when I hear such a chorus telling me all the same thing about the future it does raise questions.

Looking at the charts, lets see what we can gleem as likely next few years.

First, lets talk about the US Dollar.  Even mainstream news tells us how much the US Dollar has been gaining value compared to the world.  It is quite possible USD will go 50% higher from here.  But lets take a look at the last year.

Since about August of 2014, the USD has been on a tear!  If you follow currencies, this change is very dramatic, but not unprecedented.
Recently the USD has been pulling back, but I dont expect a straight down line, this may take 3 months to a year to return to 80 range.

So what did the overall US stock market perform during the same period?

\

The overall market went from about 1860 to 2115, about 13% rise.  During same period USD went from 80 to recent high of 100. about 25%.  This alone does not tell us much, except as the world entered a recession, the US attracked investors as haven of stability driving currency and stock up higher.

How did natural resources do?

The world entered a recession, and China is a HUGE driver of natural resources.  Overall natural resources collapesed, from about 310 down to about 210.  Pretty huge drop.  To give context, here is CRB over last ~8 years.

We are at a near 8 year low, comparable to the 2008 crash.  

Gold is a subset of this, how did that do?

Considering how STRONG the USD was, and commoditied TANKED in the last year, gold has been relatively flat. 1300 down to 1200 range.

How has Gold miners fared?

Gold miners are also at near lows, not seen since 2008 crash.

So what can we say absolutely about all this data?

RELATIVE to last 8 years, natural resources are near a LOW, as also GOLD MINERS (GDX).

That during the last year as USD rocketed, gold valuation kept about parity value.

USD, if going to return closer to valuations a year ago, indicate Gold will appreciate. (as gold is priced internationally like all resources independant of USD valuation).

If buy low, sell high is a strategy, all things point that Gold Miners are near decade lows.  Doesn't mean that miners will head higher, could stay here for 20 years.   But risk of devaluation from here is much smaller than most of the last decade.

The Federal Reserve Bank was dovish, basically indicating interest rates won't rise until winter at earliest.  We are witnessing a huge game of chicken across all countries.  Good luck!

Market Dislocation?

For the last 2 major bull runs, the market ran about 5.5 years before a severe correction.
We are about 5.5 years in this bull run, the question is, what next?


I have been playing chess recently, and as such, I come to realize in chess, as in work, often it is all about positioning.   The global economic control, power struggle, and what is next is about what next moves benefit the USA in what seems like the right path.  More on this later.

Please look at picture below. Using history as a guide, we are in dangerous territory.
I honestly think we could have a 1-4 year parabolic run that explodes to the market of 2-5x current valuations.  The byproduct would be a full on collapse of USD in the world, relegating USA to second tier status.  The casualties of this would be severe in the world.
I am NOT saying likely, just that it is possible.  The driver of course would be full crystalization of lack of law and currency injection.  I give this a low percentage of possibility.
The 'Blame' of such an event would result in USA loss of global leader, hence, low probability, but possible.


What is more likely is for a correction to begin, we need to blame something.  Right now we are full of excuses for the picking.  We have Ebola in USA, ISIS, China, Russia, and a host of other challenges.   One thing is certain, if we have a market meltdown the result cannot be its because of the current structure, blame must be assigned elsewhere.

Ignoring paranoia talk about USD collapse or a tense market waiting to be pricked by an excuse, one thing to ask yourself.  Assuming USD and politics away, are stocks undervalued, equal value, or over valued.  To me, they are NOT undervalued.  At BEST equal value, but quite likely over valued.

Keep in mind that standard accounting in place since the great depression is STILL suspended, making valuations of financial companies truely a fantasy guess.  Without mark-to-market accounting, its pretty much 'take our word for it'.  With such loose standards, and a nice run up, I can't make a case for undervalued.

If there is a prick in the market, bonds should yet one final bull run, collapsing interest rates.  Afterwards bonds would be the last place to be, as I expect we enter the final phase of this game.
For now, cold cash, debt payoff, and investing in yourself are best.  Gold and Gold miners are pre-beaten up, but if a market correction happens tends to take all down with it.

In 2008, gold miners collapsed hard.  But when the market hit low in March 2009, they where up quite nicely.  Since miners are PRE-deflated, this time it may be a safe play.  China is a backer of gold and as I posted in previous post, aligning direct currency trading to avoid USD.  If they make a push with a crisis, I have to think gold atleast holds its own.

A mix of cash, stocks, and resources hopefully to weather what maybe a nasty turn.

Good luck!

Market Musings

This week has the potential to be very important for Gold Miners.
First, there is the recent whip-saw for gold, I expect some follow through one way or the other this week.
Gold Miner stocks report earnings this week, so the news should affect ETF's GDX & GDXJ in some manner.

Then there is the matter of the overall market.  Is this time truely different? Market about ready for a rapid rise? Don't dismiss it! If gobal currencies start to fail we could see an epic market tear.

However if this time is not different, reversion to the mean is long overdue.

I think this time its different is possible, but not plausible if you use history as a guide.  But then again, we are in a time unlike any in history.

I happened to have sold 1/2 of what Gary told me in Quest and got full in near the GDX bottom last week with cheap options, so this week I am very interested to see what happens, as I am out there, on my own.

Good Luck!

Corruption, Gold, Bitcoin, and Beyond

I ran across a summary of recent massive corruption in the US financial system of preferred treatment. I actually have Zero against the rich or influential, I have a problem with the law not being applied evenly. Not because its immoral, but because a system without law, is a system that is bound to fail, as history has shown many times over.

 As I write this, gold MAY have bottomed last week, and Gary of Smart Money Tracker is thinking it has. I did buy some options last week for a GDX bounce, but time will tell. If gold rises, miners should follow. Bitcoin has exploded from about $50 a coin when I bought in a couple of weeks ago to 650 a coin. I should have put ever nickel into bit coin, but its hard to pull that trigger.

The market on the other hand is the gift that keeps on going. I wrote back in 2010 that the market may instead break up instead of down in the next crisis. What I meant by that is if corruption is so great, there is no reason for markets to ever go down. If there is no accounting, no law, no one to judge negatively, then the next market failure maybe the dow 10 times higher than now. In that scenario, being outside of USD is best.

Even though the markets are at all-time highs, there is something very disturbing. Banks are back giving loans to anyone and everyone. the problem with this is once you are willing to give loans to people who cannot pay them back, whats the next level of 'loose' money to get the next leg up? I guess banks could start giving $1,000 bucks for every $10K you deposit, or some other insanity. And that's what we have ahead, either a 2007 correction, or we must be much more reckless than now.

 Either way, the outcome will not be pleasant, 2014 is really shaping up to be the decision for the next 4 years. Good luck!

The Great Unwinding is starting in 2014

In Sept 2008-March 2009 the world decided to double down on all problems and have the world banks and governments go all in to prevent an epic economic collapse.  For now, I'll steer clear of political debate if this should have occurred, lets assume the world was better off to act.

What I can say for certainty is what brought the economic catastrophe was NOT corrected, and this is the greatest sin since March 2009.  The world pissed away about 5 years that could have been used to fix the social economic order, instead we doubled, tripled down.     In hindsight, maybe thats all the world is capable of doing, keeping the same dance a moving until the song must change.

So here we are, lets take a look of signs of the Great Unwinding is starting to happen.

1) Countries currencies are destabilizing, with Argentina and Venezuela leading the way, Turkey looking to follow.
2) Greece after years of oppression is ready for fundamental change its only a matter of demographics as 45% hit below poverty line.
3) Various stock markets are hitting into trouble as Brazil plummets, US market hitting resistance,
4) HSBC, a very large Chinese Bank, is restricting withdrawals, not a sign of financial confidence for what is supposedly a global economic leading country....
5) US is bracing for a fundamental shift in retail, to last for potentially a decade of employment decline.
6) Banks in Germany, France, Spain, and others face a 1 trillion dollar reserve shortfall.
7) Back in 2008 I posted how China and India would squeeze USA of resources, with Oil as a key concern.  China is positioning to secure oil globally while USA uses local, temporary, fraking to cover the shortfall.
8) Global tensions are mounting, with various points of contention that could cause a catalyst for global tensions to flare, right now Japan and China are key contenders for sparking escalation.
9) In general, currency volatility is higher so far in 2014, with it expected to continue....
10) Gold on verge of possible break out, while not a sign of doom, it may be an indicator of economic sentiment change.


So while none of above really proves anything, we are opening 2014 with a heck of a bang!

The New US Economic unReality

Many may pontificate about the market direction, hard resource valuations, the effect of debt, health of nations, or any aspect of the financial reality since 2008 crash.

There are many things that make a marked difference between 1980's until March 2009 and from March 2009 to today.

First, the accounting system using fair market valuations was dismantled in 2009.  The REALITY is the measuring stick between 1980's until 2009 is not the same as we use today. Therefore if Mark to Market accounting has been suspended, we are valuing financial institutions on what those institutions say assets are worth - not what they are worth if they where sold.  This alone distorts the reality of corporate health, and there is no hard-date to ever return to the gold standard of accounting - recording asset values for what people would pay for them if sold.

Add to this, that US Government statistics are being distorted, the very basis for many financial decisions and financial guidelines.  For example, official inflation alters the income of disability, and social security payments. (and many other social programs).    I already covered how inflation is being routinely changed, in effect changing the measuring stick.  Also, it is widely covered how unemployment numbers are continually being adjusted, distorting any reality of the unemployment rate.

Throw on top of all this the recent scandals of the global interest rate (LIBOR) used to determine most loans has been discovered to have been gamed for years.  This affected literally trillions of dollars of credit.

Throw on top of that the Federal Reserve Bank is making routine purchases of debt, and lending (giving) money to foreign banks to the tune over 230 Billion dollars in the last four weeks alone.

Looking into the private sector, we have Nobel Laureates such as Paul Krugman who have only one drum beat, ignore today for a better tomorrow.  I hope the most ardent fans of such approach are starting to question the one-way mantra for decades.

Throw on top of that nations like Japan having their government directly taking over direction of central banks to promote monetary policy for the government direct benefit, is an outright attempt to shape their own reality.

All of this speaks to how we are in a new reality, the unreality from my life experience.  Under such a new reality, any market musings are futile.  The sticks to measure at every fundamental level are not reliable.  The will of the private and government sector is to promote distortion.  The one reality that does exist, is we are divorced from reasonable capitalistic controls.

May this bring a bright future, well, atleast for the people who this new reality is their reality.  For those who resist believing and take the red pill, I continue to be concerned.
The one item that cannot be forever manipulated is resources.  An example of how governments cannot control those valuations is seen repeatedly in history.  Every government that has tried, has failed.  That is an impressive failure rate.  For the latest attempt, one has to watch as Argentina implodes in 2013.  My only glimmer of hope is a privatization of money, which should bring on a new prosperity  for the next millenia.

End of year Market Wrapup

The Year is drawing to a close. I wanted to take step back and look at where things stand since 2008.

Generally speaking, relative to 2008, things are still good.  Relative to 2008 this is what we are trending now.
USD neutral, looking weak
Gold Miners mixed, leaning weak
Gold looking mixed, leaning weak
S&P 500 - Trending middle of up range since 2008
TYX - US 30 year interest rates on verge of trend change up.

If we are to believe these indicators, 2013 is not going to be fun.
I need to think on this, and possible lessen positions....again.

To the charts!

Market heading to new lows?

Is the market heading down to new lows multi-decade lows?

You be the judge, found this interesting site today.

Market Musings, What next?

Looking at all things objectively, its hard to get optimistic on the markets.
However, we have had weeks of market movements that has been sideways action.
The US Dollar rose quite a bit, but now shows signs of weakening.

Once again, it isn't a bad time to buy a LITTLE more gold miners.  (GDX and GDXJ) The last two times I said this, we are lower than when purchased.

What is at stake here is global currency pressures, global economic pressures, and gold pricing.
To the charts!

Market Levitation

I am quite impressed how the market has held up.  Europe is in near daily crisis.  Recession is basically recognized by most to be in the cards, but not yet official.

Manufacturing down, profit crappy.

Through all this the market levitates.  It's hard to imagine, but the correction may be over?
I remain cautious into February.  I think by then we will have our answer for 2013.  By then, the US fiscal cliff buzz will be resolved, and the markets levitation resuming.

Chart for perspective, with the long term weekly below.

I am removing my bear on my blog, and refer back to my October 1st post 'Getting out of the Market'.

Market Musings, Part 2

So the SPX is broken below 1395.   I am very bearish on the overall market. (reconsider SPX 1316)  Gary of Smart Money Tracker expects gold and gold miners to buck the rest of the market.  Having some of this sector to build on is always a good idea in my book.

We are ENTERING another recessions, globally.  Such a recession I doubt will resolve quickly.  A good turn around would be spring or summer of next year.  Turn around right now seems hard to imagine.

The republicans lost the presidential race, and the fiscal cliff in January 2013 approaches.
If the republicans can maneuver to force the fiscal cliff to occur, thereby injuring US economy significantly, they will have setup Obama to have another hard four years to try to stabilize the economy.

The more the Republicans can injure the US economy, the more they can make Obama look like the problem, with the solution being a Republican president in 2016 elected.

I am no fan of Obama. If the republicans played nice and worked with Obama, I do not believe his medicine will fix it.   The most likely outcome is if both sides fight, and fail to unite to compromise, we all lose.  That is the likely path I see.  Republicans do not believe in compromise, and Democrats seemingly cannot grasp fiscal and government discipline.  This is not a political blog, but politics do affect your investments, so it must be kept in the spotlight.


With a backdrop of Christmas upon us, election over, North East impaired and deficit spending to restore normalcy, Europe in perpetual crisis, and the fiscal cliff ahead, I see no reason to run to stocks.

If you have a burning desire to buy stocks and not fixed income, as always for the loooong haul I like Oil, gold, food, and alternate energy.   Some of these sectors have been BRUTALIZED in the last year.   Stocks  that have been gaining in this market decline recently are:
NAK - 4.19 , HTM - 0.33 , AUQ - 8.46 , AUY - 20.36, UNG - 21.19
EFT's for miners holding their own
GDX - 51.41, GDXJ - 23.92,
And metals
GLD 168, & SLV 31.38
Alternate Energy and Oil are getting punished with the dowturn.
TAN -14.55 (solar) is at a low, and OIH 37.19 (oil companies) is getting punished.
DBA - 28.78 (food) also getting mildly punished

Market Musings

I am without internet access for foreseeable future at home.  This will severely impact my postings.
I'll try to post, but likely not in earnest until my access is restored.

Gary of the Smart Money tracker likes gold right here.  And GDX & GDXJ are holding up since my post "Decent Spot for Market Entry".  If the market can't make significant decline a week after the presidential election, my market optimism for gold miners will increase.

For now, if you wish to buy on the low, now is good, with eye on SPX 1395 as a mark to reconsider investments.
The S &P 500 has has a floor above 1400 since a week ago, October 23rd.

In a nutshell, nothing decisive yet.  Some minor technical breaks to indicate gold higher, but not impressive yet.  For actual real analysis, click on Gary's link, 10 buck special to try his service.

Decent spot for market entry

While I remain very concerned of a longer term market decline, I'll be first to admit that anything could happen.

On the PLUS side for market advance, the market knows corporate profits are missing and getting pinched. But yet, the stock prices had not moved down severely.
There is the thought that all financial institutions, governments, and corporations all want stocks to go up.   Financial institutions are employing sophisticated trading platforms to 'manage' the market, such as High Frequency Trading.  The government changes laws to make corporations look better, such as changing accounting rules in place since the great depression.  Corporations continue to innovate to move liabilities to off-book accounting mechanisms.


So while I am skeptical of the market making new highs, doesn't mean it wont.  Today is a good entry point if your mildly optimistic, with a stop-loss if the market closes below SPX 1395.
Futures are pointing up.  US presidential election home stretch is upon us.  The USD may resume it's decline, bolstering stocks until the effects take another bite out of companies.

Image below.  I will buy some GDX, GDXJ today on advice of Gary of the Smart money tracker, but not to the same degree as he may.  Also lighten on HDGE. Good luck.

Stock Tend Lines

Did some quick analysis of the trend lines since 2008.
Food for thought below.

This time, it's different

I am growing in concern once again about market valuations to the extreme, my position changed on October 1st of this month in post titled "Getting out of the Market".

I wanted to take a step back and look at the market long term from two different angles.  First from 1995 to present, the more recent history of market valuations.  Using this history as an example, looks pretty compelling that we are in for a market correction.

The market hasn't seen below SPX 700 (except briefly in 2009) since 1996.  Assuming SPX 700 is the new bottom, then the rise in 1996-2000 was about 115%, in line with the last two bull markets.

However, if we look back to 1995-6, the market moved from a norm range of 400 to 700 and has never looked back.  That rise was in fact "this time its different".
The market moved from a whole new level.  So using the logic back in 1997 as market went from 400 to 800, you would have been sorely mistaken.

Wanted to give some perspective of market view, from the last 18 years, and from before.   I for one think 1996 was the realization of technology, and the last two bubbles have been  ponzi-scheme-like driven. However, Nano-tech, makers, biotech, alternate energy could be poised to bring us to the new level.

The market may recover and hit a new all time high, but I can't get on board with SPX 1400 moving to 2000 or 2800 in the next 3 years.  A MAJOR random element of course is USD currency valuations.  I simply cannot see a major USD decline until 2016-17.

Pictures for thought.  Fixed income, some core precious metals (small) and possibly short fund. (I'll do post on ETF short fund HDGE).  To the charts!

Market Musings

A week ago I posted "Getting out of the Market", over the next couple of days the market went higher after I sold, SPX was about 1450 at the open, and  the market closed on Thursday and Friday at about 1460, with intra-day high at about 1470.  Today Market closed at about 1432.

My goal is to stay out of the market until SPX hits above 1557, or pulls back to 1250 and I re-evaluate.
Of course, any major news can change my opinion.

Gary of Smart Money Tracker is calling for new highs, passing SPX 1557, click here to read.
Anything is possible.

Good luck.