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Monday, October 1, 2012

Getting out of the Market

Update: see post Market Musings
Monday AM update: Gold spiking up VERY fast, same with Oil, I am sticking with my plan below
I have given quote some thought about the market as of recent.
I have decided to "get out of dodge" for now, the reasons.

  1. I waffled quite a bit the last week or so.  Such waffling usually means I am fighting fear and greed, and greed is winning.  Usually a bad thing.
  2. Gary of Smart money tracker is also waffling.  
  3. The Federal Reserve bank did blow its big announcement, buying 40 billion EVERY month indefinitely of US troubled mortgages from banks.  Not sure how they can top that one in the near future.  And to top it, I assume something bad will happen first.
  4. If Obama wins, the republicans may make Obama's life difficult when tax increases occur in January.  I do not like the current democrats OR republicans.  All they have to do is NOT play nice with dems and allow taxes to increase in January, as it is set now.  That should really put the nail on any optimism.
  5. Miners etf went from 40 bucks to 54 bucks in couple of months or so.  30% gain when 30 year bonds pay 3%...lets not get too greedy.
  6. I will eat my hat, and turn around when the market hits a mere 100 points higher on the S&P 500 from recent high of 1447 to 1557, topping the old high back in 2007.  I can miss those 100 points if I am wrong, but rather miss losses of 100's of points if we decline.  Re-valuate at 1250 or so.
  7. I said to sell on any strength last week, and frankly, if I had done that it would have been perfect timing.  Best to get out of dodge before more damage is done.

So there ya have it.  I am dumping almost across the board.  irony is I'll probably keep Facebook, Groupon, and Zenga from the post a while back, they got soooo beat up, eh, they may buck.

I will keep Tiny core positions.  I'll sit on my hands until above 1557 or radical news comes out.
Look at the chart below, really, why hold for 100 more up? I'll rebuy then when proven wrong.
Influences are across the board, including John, Slope of Hope (click, nice vid), Gary, and reality (click).

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