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Showing posts with label Fiat Currencies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fiat Currencies. Show all posts

Sunday, September 28, 2014

Full route in gold before it gets good

Who knows, maybe the bottom is in.  But I fear a full routing of gold and we won't see a bottom until December-January 2015 finally.

Hopefully we get a nice bounce for a couple of weeks before the routing resumes.  For a really good objective look at gold and miner charting see chartfreak post here.

Gold is being politicized, and with politics comes games.  China is trying to get into the gold game in a big way, and I believe its part of their mult-fork strategy to take away USA as the global currency, signing deals with UK, French and German Corps, Russia, Brazil, Australia, Canada, Argintena, South Korea, Singapore-Malasia , UAE-Saudi Arabia (limited trade), and of all things Bitcoin!   
With such high stakes I can't imagine that we have a smooth ride ahead in any market.

In the next 3 months, I really have no clue about gold, I could easily believe it hits 990 an ounce before the bottom is in, and GDX hit 16 bucks.  Or its quite possible we are near the low and its a great time to buy.

With politics comes games, and with games you can't trust anything.  The US dollar has been the world currency for quite a while, and as the graph below shows, it isn't that crazy that the world will seek a change.

I am for Crypto-Currency to be the next world currency, meaning no country has it.  But I suspect we'll have to go through the pain of China attempting to take the world currency first, then later after that fails go to Crypto.  that could take a decade or so!

Eh, if only the worl operated effeciantly and just jumped to the end game :)

So your on your own through December, I really can't imagine 'knowing' the bottom is in until then.


Monday, July 7, 2014

Money 4.0

Money 1.0 was simply barter, I give you eggs, you give me some hay.
Money 2.0 was I give you a precious metal like gold coins for hay.  This is really 1.0, however unlike eggs, gold coins are easily stored over time, can be sized easily to different sizes, and can have a similar value across cultures.  Gold coins to me is same as barter, but its a widely acceptable physical value to barter with.
Money 3.0 - Fiat currencies by central authority created out of thin air has value.
Money 4.0 - Fiat currencies by shared authority created out of thin air has value.  To me what we need is in my post, Ideal Form of Money, Empower the People

I ran across this video, similar sentiment but a different angle.  His accent is heavy but does a good job to explain why the current system is unsustainable.






Monday, December 23, 2013

100 Years ago Fed Created, Israel meeting to dismantle the system

The Federal Reserve bank started 100 years ago today.  To read up on how the Federal Reserve Bank, a private institution, came about click here.

I have written already on how I think the next currency should evolve, using private enterprise in post titled Ideal form of Money, Power to the People.  However, getting there does NOT have to be a 'revolution', it can be an 'evolutionary' process.

Israel Monetary Change Movement is making noise about how to overhaul the system.  At the heart is the uneven power in banks to create money and the power of corruption in politics.  I am skeptical that this movement will gain enough momentum to make significant change, but who knows.

Hopefully a debt-free society can emerge for public money.  I have covered before how tricky this is, often this can lead to hyperinflation or currency collapse.

Bill Still covers this event.

Saturday, May 18, 2013

Virtual Currencies reach US Government Attention

Bitcoin's primary exchange, Mt. Mox, has been shutdown.   I am giving the benefit of the doubt to the US government, and that Mt. Mox has issues with corruption, violating international laws and accounting issues in it's financial reporting.  And for any critics reading saying the US government has corruption issues, the point is invalid.  The new currency system MUST be held to the highest possible standard and survive.

There are likely millions of organizations globally that have all sorts of black market and money laundering schemes.  The timing of taking down Mt. Mox with the currency recent sharp valuation rally  is not a coincidence, and is viewed as something to defend against.

To me, what Bitcoin has achieved is a historical milestone on the road to a new financial system model.  The Bitcoin system being used for years by a very small minority, now has achieved with validation that Bitcoin is a threat.   And a new currency system must survive the worst global assualt possible and survive to be considered 'good enough' for the world to trust.

I have written about bitcoins in the past, I do not believe it is a good currency replacement.  It is subject to shortages, and therefore prone to deflation.  I'll take inflation over deflation, and therefore I find deflation much more damaging.

In this article from rt.com 'Bitcoin Threatens economic monopoly, bolsters free speech' I think does a very good job of capturing the true power that a new financial model will set the world free, from a debt based society to a free one.

What I have not yet seen is an indepth critique of many core flaws in the bitcoin model I see, how those core flaws cannot be overcome and doom the currency to failure.

What do you think? Below is the techie in me experimenting with a service called Branch, to facilitate discussion via twitter.   I doubt I'll get any reader (if there is any left!) posting on this, but feel free to do so.  If I do get even a tiny amount of responses, I'll be encouraged to make it a staple on this blog.

Click on the red odd icon at the top to get started.








Tuesday, May 14, 2013

More progress on alternate currency

Lets be clear, I can't see an alternate currency to be viable until the USD is in trouble, something that I have written I believe won't happen until 2015-2017, probably 2017.

I have written what is needed is a financial system overhaul that has hit most industries by technology advancements.  Bitcoin is an initial attempt at this, and Amazon has put its toe in the water.

Now we have Google Ventures backing OpenCoin, the firm behind Ripple.  OpenCoin is meant to be a transparent exchange for things like BitCoin or Ripple.

Transparent is good, it is a key tennant in my view of a new currency.

The level of investment is 5 to 15 million for different aspects of the new virtual currency.  I call this as a groundbreaking event making this topic legitimate.

Saturday, February 9, 2013

The New US Economic unReality

Many may pontificate about the market direction, hard resource valuations, the effect of debt, health of nations, or any aspect of the financial reality since 2008 crash.

There are many things that make a marked difference between 1980's until March 2009 and from March 2009 to today.

First, the accounting system using fair market valuations was dismantled in 2009.  The REALITY is the measuring stick between 1980's until 2009 is not the same as we use today. Therefore if Mark to Market accounting has been suspended, we are valuing financial institutions on what those institutions say assets are worth - not what they are worth if they where sold.  This alone distorts the reality of corporate health, and there is no hard-date to ever return to the gold standard of accounting - recording asset values for what people would pay for them if sold.

Add to this, that US Government statistics are being distorted, the very basis for many financial decisions and financial guidelines.  For example, official inflation alters the income of disability, and social security payments. (and many other social programs).    I already covered how inflation is being routinely changed, in effect changing the measuring stick.  Also, it is widely covered how unemployment numbers are continually being adjusted, distorting any reality of the unemployment rate.

Throw on top of all this the recent scandals of the global interest rate (LIBOR) used to determine most loans has been discovered to have been gamed for years.  This affected literally trillions of dollars of credit.

Throw on top of that the Federal Reserve Bank is making routine purchases of debt, and lending (giving) money to foreign banks to the tune over 230 Billion dollars in the last four weeks alone.

Looking into the private sector, we have Nobel Laureates such as Paul Krugman who have only one drum beat, ignore today for a better tomorrow.  I hope the most ardent fans of such approach are starting to question the one-way mantra for decades.

Throw on top of that nations like Japan having their government directly taking over direction of central banks to promote monetary policy for the government direct benefit, is an outright attempt to shape their own reality.

All of this speaks to how we are in a new reality, the unreality from my life experience.  Under such a new reality, any market musings are futile.  The sticks to measure at every fundamental level are not reliable.  The will of the private and government sector is to promote distortion.  The one reality that does exist, is we are divorced from reasonable capitalistic controls.

May this bring a bright future, well, atleast for the people who this new reality is their reality.  For those who resist believing and take the red pill, I continue to be concerned.
The one item that cannot be forever manipulated is resources.  An example of how governments cannot control those valuations is seen repeatedly in history.  Every government that has tried, has failed.  That is an impressive failure rate.  For the latest attempt, one has to watch as Argentina implodes in 2013.  My only glimmer of hope is a privatization of money, which should bring on a new prosperity  for the next millenia.

Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Anonymous, Extremists against the FRB

There is an extremist technology based terrorist group out there called Anonymous.  This group has launched  various small attacks against the Federal Reserve Bank to give visibility to their agenda.   While I agree that the current global fiat currency system has issues, I do NOT view this as a conspiracy to oppress the world.

In reality, centralized systems weakest link is, they are centralized.   Centralization stifles innovation, in effect evolution.  Centralization magnifies mistakes they make, as the people part of the central authority will over time, align with like-minded approach.  In the current Federal Reserve Bank, there is no question that overall the entire establishment believes in the mantra of Keynesian economics.  When a body of people follow a methodology, a religious like belief system, their decisions become extremely prejudice.  They are responding to a problem with 'What they know'.   That is what we are witnessing.  I am NOT a believer of Conspiracy theories.

Anonymous launched an attack and breached the Federal Reserve System, announcing it on SuperBowl Sunday.  I am of the belief while a black eye on the Fed, I really doubt there is any information they retrieved that has any remote effect on the security of the country banking system.

Anonymous, assuming they believe what they say, are unfortunately, misguided in their approach.  I believe they are likely young, under 30 years old, and view themselves as helping save the future for themselves and others.   What they don't realize is their attacks will have the exact opposite effect.  The Federal Reserve Bank are the established, lawful, and community supporting entities, and Anonymous are the rogue terrorists.

And I actually believe that this view, is a correct one.  Anonymous is the problem.

If their acts moved away from concerning of the current framework, and focused on a better framework, as I describe in my post Ideal form of Money - Power to the People, then they could help provide a solution to a system that will fail to competition of a better system.

If they actually triggered a situation by their acts, a run on the banks, they will create kaos and much death.  I'd like to not see that please.  I'd rather transition  like people did with Music, Video, Software services, tablets, smartphone, and other tech-era revolutions.  Some can stay on old, some will move to new, and eventually the new takes over, replacing the old.  That is a transition I'd rather face.

Same goes for the protest group called  Occupy WallstreetStop protesting, and get on with a solution.

So if you follow these guys, this time, don't root for the under-dog.  Root for the old system, The Federal Reserve Bank, until something better is obvious.
Notice in video below how they combine what I see, Commodity Costs increasing, currency crisisbut their root is the evil conspiracy people while my view is, the world is evolving.  Its nice and simple to view bad guys are holding back paradise.  The reality is people do what they think is net best for them and others (in that order), given the construct they have to work with.  Notice they want to punish selfish people, supporting this is supporting global extinction.  Humans are selfish, its called self-preservation.


Tuesday, February 5, 2013

Amazon to issue currency

The title is overstating the reality somewhat, but Amazon is taking its first baby step to have it's own virtual unit of value, in the form of Amazon Coins.

I welcome this huge milestone, where I hope a swarm of competitors enter the arena.  Through heavy competition a new, trusted value system may emerge, one that could compete with traditional government fiat currencies.

The current incarnation is not remotely in the same league as a government fiat currency.  I am sure its goal is to play some shell games to drive sales and usage of Amazon services.   

In January 2011, in post Ideal form of Money - Power to the People , I describe my ideal of what Money should be.   I quote:
I think what is required is to allow any company to create a system, using open review and process, to be a viable storage of wealth.

Amazon, thank you for putting your toe in the water.  If we do see tech starting to create their own version of bitcoins (the current premier outside currency experiment), this will be the weapon that will bring down gold, silver, and precious metals as an option for currency.  By the way, bitcoins seems to be getting traction, and it's virtual currency is up about 50% since January 1st alone.  However, this is likely heaver speculation and hoarders appearing.

What we will see is a movement from Precious metals ( 1930's and earlier), to leveraged precious metals (mixed fiat and precious metal ratios), to pure government fiat currencies (Nixon), to community based-trust currencies. (social/technology driven)

If this can happen the transition will be very painful, but on the other side I believe rampant economic growth to take hold, globally, as a trusted, controlled, transparent, competitive currency system gives business the confidence to move ahead.

I am getting waaay ahead of my self here, any electronic money system to gain traction is likely to occur after the global currency crisis that looms ahead.. (2017?).

I am putting this in my Financial Ground Zero series.  This is not contributing the the future crisis ahead, but will offer a solution to the crisis.

Monday, February 4, 2013

Canary in the Coal Mine - Japan

My friend John said years ago that Japan is the Canary in the Coal mine to watch.   Japan's demographics and extreme deficit spending makes it worth while to watch.  They are in effect ahead of the US trajectory.

Unfortunately, I believe if Japan enters currency crisis, a vortex over the year following will take with it other countries not too far behind it. I am not predicting that Japan enters a crisis, (2014-15?) merely stating that if Japan hits a currency crisis, this will be the beginning of what I feared all the way back in March 2009. (about the bottom of the market)

The decision to transfer all risk from private to public, put the public financial system at risk.  Since money IS about trust (work done today, will be paid back tomorrow), once trust in the system hits a tipping point, it will get ugly.

Japan recently announced basically an all out currency war, pledging to break the yen.  While the yen is not yet broken, it has had a nice decline rather rapidly.  It has lost valuation, wiping out 2.5 years of gains in months.   If Yen reaches below 0.0083, in my mind, its game on for currency crisis.

US Dollar to Yen Exchange Rate Graph - Feb 6, 2003 to Feb 1, 2013


Safe havens for a possible currency crisis are going to get severely slapped around.  As tensions mount, I expect safe havens to fall, not rise at first.   Even once the worst has past, the safe-heavens should remain under brutal assault throughout the currency crisis.  There is no free lunch, and no easy way out.  A currency crisis will shake the very foundation of everything, and bring on an era not seen since the 1930's.

The last great depression got started the same way, loosely speaking.   A huge credit bubble, credit burst, currency war, then depression and world war 2.  I obviously hope we will avoid WW 3, and at this time don't expect it.

I do have optimism overall.  I believe we are seeing a massive redistribution of capability starting, preparing for the new economy after the worst has past.  I am re-iterating my doom and gloom call for USD until 2015-2017 time period, more likely in 2017.

Gary of the Smart Money Tracker has more to say on this topic, recommend subscribing to his service.



Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Currency War is raging or Germany in trouble

I have been saying since 2008, we are in a currency war.  A currency war is when all countries try to boost prosperity by making THEIR currency go lower, so that their countries products are cheaper, relative to the rest of the world.

The problem with this scenario is the other countries see what is being attempted and actively prevent this master, grand plan from occurring.  The net result is all currencies devalue, resulting in higher prices for natural resources.  Natural resources being physical cannot be as easily manipulated like services or other assets based solely on currency worth relative to other objects in the same currency.

Germany on Tuesday announced "Bundesbank to pull gold from New York and Paris".  This is a first sign that the international banking system is losing it's cohesion OR that Germany having more difficulty dealing with the Euro than is publicly known.  Moving gold back to Germany to allow Germany to use the gold as they wish, as they attempt to stabilize their currency.

Either way, this is a tell-tale moment in the history of banking since the great depression.  Since then the western countries have been evolving the financial system based on a trust system.  That ideal actually is the right one, the world banking system at it's heart is trust.   Embracing trust is a good thing for prosperity and business.  However, if that trust is abused, sentiment changes.  Or possibly the trust is just as strong, but the financial system strains is pressuring Germany to deal with and needs the gold closer to home.

As a reminder, I STRONGLY oppose gold as money.  It is the exact opposite of trust.  A currency system based on gold basically allows zero growth without first paying a 'tax' to extract gold, refine it, and print coins as overhead to expanding the economy.  In the very rapid changing world we live, such draconian limitations would smother the economy.

Either way, 2013 is shaping up to be a fun year.

Sunday, July 15, 2012

Waiting for Central Banks Reactions

There is pressure on all sides right now in the global economy. Europe is teetering on an economic deflationary event not seen since the Great Depression. In 2008, it was a deflationary event, but quite short lived compared to most. The US changing laws to stop valuating companies using Accounting standards since the great depression helped, as well as 1.5 trillion annual deficit spending.
Food prices, gas prices, and some other resources are not even close to their 2008 lows. US unemployment/under employment is at 8.5% to as high as 25% depending on what statistics you believe. US Federal bonds at near record interest rate lows. China experiencing a credit collapse, with Australia at minimum experiencing an economic cool down. There are many other signs such as manufacturing slowing, etc.
 Since 2008 NOTHING has been fixed. As a global society we pissed away 4 years, trillions in debt spending, as well as encouraged companies to be reckless and remain insolvent. So its back to the central banks, what is the response going to be? Watch another 2008 unfold? Or pre-emptive strike? If history is any tale, pre-emptive strike is a shoe in.
 But there is a fly in the ointment. Natural resource prices have not yet collapsed like they did in 2008. If the Central Banks come out guns a blazing with more free cash, it will cause resources to move UP from here. I won't call for skyrocket by any means. But a higher low between economic issues does not bode well for the next few years.
 So I remain mildy bullish resources, with a toe in the waters, waiting to hear the other shoe drop, a "new deal" of printing to further flame the global currency war.

Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Money being re-invented

There are various experiments going on right now for new form, or alternate forms of money.
There is BitCoin, also ebay like service for 'credits'.

I am seeing a rise in barter.  Barter is the death knell for fiat currencies and government, as it is the ultimate black market.  Barter makes it near impossible for governments to collect taxation, the lifeblood of operations.

I ran across such an experiment today, called Trade School.

It is very interesting where this all goes.


Thursday, March 8, 2012

Jim Grant on Federal Reserve latest manipulation

The Federal Reserve announced yet another plan to manipulate the market, and in essence give certain companies money.  There is no such thing as a free bailout.  These cheating actions will eventually have repercussions.

Jim Grant gives a nice interview about his opinion on the market cheating going on.





Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Fundamental Global Currency Sickness

Jim Grant does a great job of explaining the crux of the global currency sickness, and that is the US government has sole control of money creation, as the world reserve currency. There is no check and balance in the system. The video is a great view of the currency problems, and debt problems, with ONE exception. I completely disagree with a gold standard.
I am starting to get concerned that these gold bugs will be heard in the global fiat crisis ahead. A gold standard will produce worse economic issues than the current system over time.

I'll create a post directly attacking the gold standard later. You can get a glimpse by reading my series starting with "What is money".

Jim Grant Interview was mid July, notice he was right about pushing out dealing with the US debt crisis.

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

What is 17 trillion between friends?

I have posted some video's from Bill Still before. I am in agreement with him that Gold based money is a horrific money system that will enslave the populous. Every transaction will require a miner tax to quantify work owed (IOU = money). You can read my thread of thinking by starting "what is money".

Bill Still made a very good documentary about the history of money, and how that gold makes a horrible money system. Also how the current debt money system is very bad for the people. In my ideal world the government needs a check and balance to create unlimited funds without requiring bonds. In reality, the government currently creates unlimited funds now, but is tied to debt.

I have come to realize with this post that it is possible that the future isn't as grim as I keep fearing. If the current monetary system just made one simple change, to create money government borrows WITHOUT requiring interest, it may unleash for a while a new prosperity. It is the very debt system the government is bound to that is causing much of the issues. For without the government paying an bankers tax on every dollar it creates, the system would be much better off.

I am concerned however with zero constraint by governments to create money, that the currency could hyper-inflate. But if you think about it, deficit spending over 1.5 trillion interest free vs with interest, how does interest to pay to the banking system make the currency more valid?

What Bill Covers in this report is 17 trillion was loaned into existence during the crisis by the Federal Reserve bank, as reported in a US GAO government report recently released. These loans were at no interest (or near zero) to support world wide the entire banking system. Bill's main point is how come the Federal Reserve bank can create 17 trillion dollars with near no interest, lend it out, and get paid back, but the US federal government - aka - the tax payer - cannot.

The source of Bill's information for 17 trillion can be found on pages 205 and 216, on this report by the US Government Accountability Office.

Lets think about this for a minute.
Above makes no sense, hence, I don't believe the 17 trillion dollar figure. It is likely to be blown up using the money multiplier quoted with regards to fractional reserve lending. I suspect the original number was the TARP, 700 Billion dollars.

For those who believe the system will collapse, in a classic deflation scenario, with the markets going to all time lows, I ask you, read above.

I agree that there are massive deflationary forces keeping the markets volatile and on the downswing. But the next time it looks like 2008, like it did Monday, I have faith in the banking system to do what it takes to ensure they remain solvent. The banking system is now on the ready to avoid 2008 or worse again, ready to create money out of thin air, to deploy to banks and leverage up 10 to 33 times the money given by the Federal Reserve Bank.

For this game will have a significant shift in the year ahead. The world is looking behind the curtain to see the Wizard of Oz is not as magical as one thought. And it is the aspect of trust and confidence, that will become the issue as the government debt load becomes unsustainable in the year ahead.

Bill Still's video report #24



Bill explains his position on changing debt money system

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Inflation, Deflation, and global currency wars

America is involved in many wars right now, lets list them shall we?
  1. Iraq
  2. Afghanistan
  3. Libya (See War Powers Resolution, and how law is ignored. )
  4. War on terrorism (Bin-laden...recent military action)
  5. War on drugs ( Mexico's border is flaring up badly )
  6. Currency War
  7. Arguably, a global simmering trade war
Wow, thats quite a bit of wars! The first three are relatively easy to grasp by most people. The countries involved are "over there" and we send military to change a political situation.

The next two are a bit more complex, as it is arguably everywhere in the world. The shape and form however to bubble to the forefront when clashes occur. It could be in the form of the bad guys killing people, or a counter attack by the good guys (USA). Again, within reason, graspable.

The last two are very subtle wars, Currency and Trade wars. Each take their own form and shape of political maneuvering, like a very big chess game. Spectators watching may not easily grasp all the various possible moves and 10 moves ahead the players are planning for.

The USA made some very shrewed policy changes in it's day, one of the least recognized is what Nixon was able to do. At that time, the US dollar was the defacto standard for currencies. However, the US dollar was convertible to gold. America had started accelerating it's budget imbalances, and other countries were asking the US for larger and larger gold conversions.

Nixon's administration assessed the situation and realized the world would have no choice, but to support the dollar even if it became a pure fiat currency. At that time, America was a manufacturing and military powerhouse. The shackles of money tied to shiny rocks was eliminated, and America could do what it wishes with it's currency.

The chess play here is simply this. Say, other countries want to trade with America. And lets say that America gives US dollars in exchange for goods at a rate that is "unfair" to the other country. Let's assume America isn't providing valuable goods back to the same country and the deficit is basically IOU's in the form of dollars.

Countries COULD turn around and dump the US dollars, in exchange for other goods and services from other countries. It could even invest that money back into the USA by purchasing assets. But if they did so, that would apply pressure on THEIR FIAT currencies to rise, as their currency would gain strength relative to the over-printing of US dollars.

This you would think is a good thing, and in many ways it is. But the net effect would be that countries exports would go up in cost relative to any other country that is prices relative to US dollars. Over time, as the US deficits spends more, their currency would rise high enough to cripple exports.

What to do? Simple, keep US Treasuries or cash and sit on it. Each year allow your holdings of US dollars to build. Since the global currency system is based on fiat currencies, each currency floats RELATIVE to each other. And since historically (since WW2) the trading patterns have been dependent on US dollars, the world has been forced, and WILL CONTINUE to be forced to finance the US over-consumption and lack of production.

Fast forward to today, and the US is deficit spending 1.5 trillion per year in ADDITION to the revolving bond debt that matures on the outstanding 14 trillion of debt.

Now, lets turn to China!

China's currency does not float, and China aggressively locks their currency to a very specific level to US dollars. So while other countries may somewhat try to keep their currency stable to US dollar trade, they do allow a bit of flexing to help ease economic imbalances. (think Euro hitting all time highs against USD).

China however does not. So what possible effect could this have? China's command economy dictates that politicians set policy to maintain the currency imbalance with respect to the USA. This has the unfortunate side effect of excessive credit and currency in their own country, resulting in inflation.

Inflation in China is high right now, and China has been fighting hard to keep prices stable for it's exports, including to the USA. This relationship has been maintained since Reagan, and is partially responsible for the US corporation exodus to China.

Well today, I see a crack in this relationship. China is allowing electric costs to rise. That will in turn force manufactures to charge more. That will result in prices from China to rise. (think Walmart, or Apple) Apple btw, to their credit is heading this off by diversifying suppliers. And despite the US economy being in a fragile state, we may see prices rise in stores, beyond the recent food and gas price surges.

The situation is of course, unsustainable. But that won't stop everyone from keep on doing what they are doing know. The US will continue to deficit spend high amounts. China will continue to try to keep it's currency stable vs the USA. But once rising prices start snowballing out of china, this game will change in shape, form, size, and velocity.

The global economy will take a turn for the worse as China tries to redirect rising prices back out to America and the world.

We live in interesting times.

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

New Form of currency - Bitcoins

Earlier this year in my post titled: "Ideal form of money - Power to the People", I posted how the current money system is doomed, and a new form of money is required. Well today I discovered an evolutionary step towards this future .... bitcoins. (click)

I haven't fully absorb how the system works, and I doubt that the way bitcoins today works is fully flushed out to replace modern currencies....but the mere fact that others are driving to find new currencies is very encouraging. Bitcoins even have an currency exchange! 5 Million USD traded in the last 30 days. (It's a start!)

Below is a short video, that obviously can't answer all questions. In the weeks to come, I'll post more about bitcoins and I'll assess how it matches up to my post from January.

It is only a matter of time that a new, decentralized, people driven (rather than government driven) currency materializes. When that happens (10 years+ from now?) the world will be a better place for the bottom 99% of the wealth population.

Thanks to Eric for the link!

Thursday, March 17, 2011

What happens if USD collapses

When I talk about USD devaluation, I get looks from people "that can't happen", "I don't understand", or more likely a change of topic.

A coworker even talked like I am expecting mass death of US citizens. I corrected him, many countries implode over the history of mankind. Greece used to default and become insolvent on a regular basis before allowed to join the EU. Argentina is a modern day example of having a countries currency reset multiple times.


I am not of the mindset that a collapse in the USD equals mad-max. America will reinvent itself, maybe for worse, but not be wiped off the face of the earth.
So my side obsession is placing what money I do have into investments that will retain value, such as commodities. The problem is, I have a hard time believing this year the USD will hit a true crisis. I do think its 2013-2017. So I am trying to be nimble, and I am not against cash investments.

Problem is, when cash is obvious to be bad, by that time gold, and other safe havens will be so expensive, level headed people will not buy, due to it looks like an extreme bubble.

I ran across a video that tries to illustrate an example of how the USD collapse may come to pass. I do agree with the video that China will be the key ingrediant to make it happen. As of now, China is "stuck" and cannot implode the US for fear of mass unemployment in China. Also, China's bubble makes USA bubble look immaterial. So they are hardly in a position to go popping bubbles.

But all of this will eventually get rectified in China, one way or another, and then they won't have any reason to NOT pop the USA bubble.

Or I can see a nice, orderly decline for US over the next 8 years with never a USD crisis.

In any event, fyi video, grain of salt, interesting.

Thursday, March 3, 2011

imminent US Dollar crisis?

The US dollar has been building strength/support from a chart perspective since 2008, with the lower trend line illustrated in the first chart. From a chart perspective, if the USD breaks this trend line ,there is very little resistance from US dollar falling further. The crisis point will be 70.70.

Evidence of this is the PREVIOUS trend break, back in 2007, where the USD for the first time since 1971 (ever?), broke below 78.19, a low set back in 1992. In 2007, the US broke this level and entered a free-fall until a new low was made in March 2008.

During 2007, the US stock market made new highs, as valued in US dollars. Once the market made new highs, Oil continued to climb even after the USD dollar bottom was put in March 2008, until markets crashed in September 2008.

The USD valuation in my opinion as a key component in driving assets to extreme levels, both US stock market and resources. Notice that the USD rose rapidly mid 2008, and Oil still spiked to extreme levels, soon after the markets crashed.

The USD is currently at a level that is a critical indicator for the next crisis. Assuming the USD breaks the recent trend line, it will likely spark yet another run-away asset valuation somewhere. And USD will enter into a true crisis if it breaks the low of 70.70 set in 2008.

This is a very likely scenario in 2011. If this comes to pass, any economic recovery that is occurring in the US should be badly hurt.

It is quite likely Oil will rise with US dollar falling, but also quite likely that Gold and silver will rise much more rapidly. For in 2007-2008, speculators on overheating economies and tight supply of oil drove oil to new highs. In 2011, mid east crisis and currency crisis will drive likely both oil and gold/silver.

There is a second indicator, in the second chart, US 30 year bonds. The trend line dating back to 1985 is in jeopardy. I had previously posted that we broke this trend line, I was wrong. The tools I have don't go back to 1985 on a daily basis. The Chart Store has charts updated periodically, going back decades. From this latest long term chart, it looks like we are pressing on the downward trend line since 1985.

A combination of breaking cheaper bond rates combined with USD driving to new lows will provide a super-charged cocktail mix that should drive some asset classes to new highs. My bet is gold and silver will benefit based on previous posts. See "Time to play parabolic chicken" for investments I am interested in.

Losers will be those invested in longer term bonds, mostly over 5 year maturity. Also pure cash storage will be damaged ASSUMING the USD never returns to current levels. I think that this is quite unlikely, and instead what will occur is after a crisis occurs the USD will regain value.

This is the moment of truth, what I have been concerned over since the start of this blog, and more so since the fall of 2008, when I switched to gold and natural resources. Those invested in pure cash will need to count on USA doing the right thing to generate a sharp turn around in asset classes. I will be making the same decision, but only after gold, silver, oil, food, etc explodes upwards. The decision will be to get off the bullet train before a crash in resources......or not and keep resources to retain wealth in a spiral of USD failure.

I truly have no idea how this plays out, but this is why it is prudent to diversify into 25% resource based investments (or more).

I may be blogging in a month, crisis averted, from a chart perspective, and we have returned to the historical range. But March is likely to bring interesting events.

From a cycle perspective, Gary of the Smart Money Tracker also believes there is a high chance gold/silver and possibly other resources explode upward. Gary's view PRIMARILY uses broader market trend view of gold is in a bull run, where we are in a cycle for a commodity, and other factors.

The fact that my view of USD valuation and interest rates will drive a new USD crisis like we had in 2007-2008 is inline with Gary's method of timing markets makes for a very compelling story.

Good luck, and here are the charts, from The Chart Store.com

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Ideal form of money – empower the people

For centuries money was based on gold, and some civilizations successfully used fiat currencies for a while. However each form of money has failed to serve man’s purpose over centuries. This is because each form has flaws, and each is not a pure form of money.
Please refer back to my post on “what is money” to understand my position of money in detail. In essence money represents a debt. For example, I give you a bushel of corn I grew; you give me an IOU, and may give back the IOU to make me shoes when I need them.
For sake of argument, there is no difference between a US dollar and “credit”. Both represent the same thing, a debt owed for work done.
The problem with fiat currencies is abuse of the system. It is easier to produce no work, and just create money to get work. This has been the downfall for all fiat currencies throughout time. I recommend you watch the video on my post “Niall Ferguson: Empires on the Edge of Chaos” on to how this manifests.
The problem with Gold is, it doesn’t represent work done and a debt owed. It represents a physical material that it has value as a material. Therefore new work done cannot be symbolized in the form of money, without waiting for some miner to dig it out of the ground, manufacture it, and distribute through the banking system to my account.
In essence, the society can be only as prosperous as the mining production to generate credits for “new work”. In some cases of work, such as I mow your lawn, then you shovel my driveway create a wash, but the gold coin still must pass along the economy, and is required to do another activity.
And at any point, since the gold does represent physical value for material in jewelry or other uses, people can simply melt coins to be used for their business and sell for a higher amount of gold coins in return. Or worse yet, the rich accumulate the coins, removing them from the system, creating money shortages for the less wealthy, causing severe depressions and economic hardships on the have-nots.
The whole idea of gold as money outrages me that people cannot think of money in its purest form. It is suppose to be a guaranteed bond, akin to signing a contract, which work performed can be used to get work in return. It is universal, meaning the person who gives you the currency doesn’t have to be the same person you give it back to.
The problem comes in that individuals, companies, states, or governments would rather just make new money than create work to back the new debt created. This perversion of not having money represent work done and work owed is what we are witnessing by the actions of the Federal Reserve Bank. Ben Bernanke, in effect, is trying to show the world, that US does not have to honor repayment with new work, it can repay with sleight of hand and new paper IOU that will never get repaid with work. It is a dangerous game, which has shown throughout history to typically end with the loss in faith in the currency and destruction of the government’s ability to operate.  ** UPDATE ON THIS VIEW, "Bernanke Villain or Hero"
I am more concerned over Ben Bernanke than Osama bin Laden. Americans are aware of the dangers that the concept that Laden and others promote. To kill thy enemy at any cost, with most impact possible given the resources at hand. While Mr. Bernanke is put on the covers of magazines as man of the year and he himself takes credit for taking actions to “make people feel better so they spend more”. In that single statement, admitting, that he has not taken fundamental actions to make the situation improved. Unless you consider feelings as equal as a promise kept and law enforced.
Current Money Summary
Currently, there is two views of money, Fiat and gold based. Both also can have credit issues against them, generating their own form of new money. In both cases they have weaknesses. One for abuse and the other for holding back prosperity of the people. I recommend watching the video “Secret of Oz” for more on this background.
New money attributes
Once again, the problem is societies knee-jerk reaction is to answer with what you know. By choosing past money systems that have repeatedly failed in history, we guarantee the money system will fail again. What is needed is an improved form of currency. One that can do the following.
  • Enforces that work done is repaid with work done. If work isn’t repaid, that money is lost, and the impact is against the person or company that FAILED to repay the work. They take the hit.
  • New Money can be created literally out of thin air. All that is required is you perform work, and someone else receives the work. The one receiving the work now has a debt in life that must be repaid. This of course, is called credit. When you have no money, but need to create money out of thin air.
  • Amount of credit given to an individual is finite, determined by an open market competing for your business. For example, if GM needs more money, it can obtain credit from the market place (creditors) at a rate of interest determined by the market place. A free form of pure capitalism is required, and transparency into the applicant’s finances is crucial for this to work.
  • No one entity can create new money outside of the process. There is no grand puba called Federal Reserve Bank Chairman that can bequeath new money unto the minions of society. A fair system for all to ensure that work done will be paid back with work done.
  • Money can be freely transferable to anyone the possessor dictates. This transfer is automatically subject to taxation, with no exceptions. Perhaps a 1% flat tax across all of societies work effort. The tax is to ensure the business environment is concussive for work. This will provide incentive for governments to improve work conditions, as it will generate more tax through more business being done. The government carrot is in effect, like the profit of McDonald's. More business done = more income.
  • The system is secure, provides transparent accounting, and is governed by an open board. All work done by the board to propose changes to the system (refinement) must be done on a public web site, subject to public voting and public approval of EXACT changes being instituted. All new rules subject to 12 month revocation period by the same public voting system.
I have a slightly slanted vision, based on what I know, computer systems.
What I envision of course is a computerized marketplace where all money is stored electronically. It may in fact be a global currency. However, I am NOT in favor of a global currency, as such the risk of global failure due to corruption is too high. Instead I think what is required is to allow any company to create a system, using open review and process, to be a viable storage of wealth.
Electronic Money
For example, EBAY could create it’s own form of money, and then interface it’s money using a “currency exchange rate” to Amazon. Only in the spirit of private competition coupled with mandated open transparency can result in an evolving framework that will result in an optimal system. Over time, the currency systems that are found to be the most trustworthy will rise to the top.
Let the marketplace of ideas and private enterprise provides a solution. One of the solutions of course, I would expect would the equity exchanges, future markets, and other financial systems. The monetary rate of exchange between systems must be an open, market place where rates are found in a capitalistic fashion. No backroom deals to gain unfair market advantage.
Alternately, a single entity could be created by each country, separate from the government. But I suspect the same human tendencies to corrupt would creep into the system, as always happens with a monopoly.
You may be surprised to learn, that this is already occurring, in a form of new money through a web site called listia. They provide trading of goods without money. But they have a form of credits to help even out the valuation differences of exchanges. I think this system is just a small example of how this would work, but what is also needed is strong transparency, strict financial accounting, and public review of refinement to gain and maintain trust.
With such a system, the goal of allowing new money to come into the system can be accomplished with credit, objects, or services performed, allowing the economy to grow. It also enforces that no one entity can create money at will, that the same process is used for all. That governments or private banking cartels do not have a monopoly access to money creation. This practice is what introduces abuse, currency collapse, high inflation, or just plain old lawlessness and fraud. Unfortunately I doubt my vision will happen in my lifetime. People will try all they know to stick with “what they know” and not dive into “what they don’t know”. For now, it will be Fiat currencies and asset-backed money, both issuing pain upon mankind until demands for a new system emerges.
Such a system could be tested at first in different sites, organically growing as weaknesses are exposed, correct, improve, repeat until a tight, fraud resistant system is established.
Back to RealityI suspect if there is a US currency crisis, the solution will be a new global currency, ripe for same abuses. Or a basket of currencies that represents the single currency, gold, etc. There are multiple reasons, first, people answer crisis with what they know. Second, those who have control of money supply of course, want to keep that control. So the evolution into a new, better system is likely to be a pipe dream that may become a reality long after I am dead. In the mean time people can experience the error prone road of reverting to failed systems in an attempt to fix the prior broken system. And only after other refined broken models are proved flawed and discarded, with a new one be sought.


Next up, Economic and Monetary Inflation and Deflation.