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Thursday, February 17, 2011

Time to play parabolic blowoff chicken

I have dumped just about every short I have, and started re-loading the boat on resources.
It is looking like we may enter into a parabolic blow-off in the markets. The problem with parabolic blowoffs is you can make great money on the way up, but you must be ready to exit to preserve gains.

Usual suspects for me, GLD, GDX, GDXJ, AVL, RJA, OIH, DBA, LYSCF, SLV, SLW, SIL, URPTF, and a bunch of gold miners.

Gold miners, NAK, ANO, AUY, GSS, HMY, IAG, IVN, LUMF, NXG, RGLD,

As my friend John has said, resources can get cut down hard, like everything in life, you must take risk for reward.

But congress is bickering over cutting 100 billion out of a 3.7 trillion dollar budget. So I see no stomach for the new congress to make any meaningful changes in the budget. This will be good for gold, and bad for the US dollar. I would have had some respect for the new congress if they atleast tried for 10% cut, 370 billion. But bickering over 100 billion is useless. They may as well not cut the budget at all.

The politicians have spoken, we must have a crisis for change to occur. And from my point of view, the crisis will not be in gold until there is a crisis in the US dollar. That is the order we are setup for.

When USD hits an inflection crisis point, I may consider unwinding, for the politicians may act responsibly under pressure.

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