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Showing posts with label Central Banks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Central Banks. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Currency War is raging or Germany in trouble

I have been saying since 2008, we are in a currency war.  A currency war is when all countries try to boost prosperity by making THEIR currency go lower, so that their countries products are cheaper, relative to the rest of the world.

The problem with this scenario is the other countries see what is being attempted and actively prevent this master, grand plan from occurring.  The net result is all currencies devalue, resulting in higher prices for natural resources.  Natural resources being physical cannot be as easily manipulated like services or other assets based solely on currency worth relative to other objects in the same currency.

Germany on Tuesday announced "Bundesbank to pull gold from New York and Paris".  This is a first sign that the international banking system is losing it's cohesion OR that Germany having more difficulty dealing with the Euro than is publicly known.  Moving gold back to Germany to allow Germany to use the gold as they wish, as they attempt to stabilize their currency.

Either way, this is a tell-tale moment in the history of banking since the great depression.  Since then the western countries have been evolving the financial system based on a trust system.  That ideal actually is the right one, the world banking system at it's heart is trust.   Embracing trust is a good thing for prosperity and business.  However, if that trust is abused, sentiment changes.  Or possibly the trust is just as strong, but the financial system strains is pressuring Germany to deal with and needs the gold closer to home.

As a reminder, I STRONGLY oppose gold as money.  It is the exact opposite of trust.  A currency system based on gold basically allows zero growth without first paying a 'tax' to extract gold, refine it, and print coins as overhead to expanding the economy.  In the very rapid changing world we live, such draconian limitations would smother the economy.

Either way, 2013 is shaping up to be a fun year.

Sunday, July 15, 2012

Waiting for Central Banks Reactions

There is pressure on all sides right now in the global economy. Europe is teetering on an economic deflationary event not seen since the Great Depression. In 2008, it was a deflationary event, but quite short lived compared to most. The US changing laws to stop valuating companies using Accounting standards since the great depression helped, as well as 1.5 trillion annual deficit spending.
Food prices, gas prices, and some other resources are not even close to their 2008 lows. US unemployment/under employment is at 8.5% to as high as 25% depending on what statistics you believe. US Federal bonds at near record interest rate lows. China experiencing a credit collapse, with Australia at minimum experiencing an economic cool down. There are many other signs such as manufacturing slowing, etc.
 Since 2008 NOTHING has been fixed. As a global society we pissed away 4 years, trillions in debt spending, as well as encouraged companies to be reckless and remain insolvent. So its back to the central banks, what is the response going to be? Watch another 2008 unfold? Or pre-emptive strike? If history is any tale, pre-emptive strike is a shoe in.
 But there is a fly in the ointment. Natural resource prices have not yet collapsed like they did in 2008. If the Central Banks come out guns a blazing with more free cash, it will cause resources to move UP from here. I won't call for skyrocket by any means. But a higher low between economic issues does not bode well for the next few years.
 So I remain mildy bullish resources, with a toe in the waters, waiting to hear the other shoe drop, a "new deal" of printing to further flame the global currency war.