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Sunday, March 29, 2009

Conspiracy

Given such turmoil in the world economy, the significant amount of fraud being uncovered, and the irresponsible responses by politicians, conspiracy buffs are having a field day.

I just finished watching "The Obama Deception" the that I posted on the 14th. I have been seeing a bit of Conspiracy stuff more and more, and felt it important to post my view on conspiracies. Understanding my point of view will be critical for subsequent related posts.

This will be a rather long explanation, for those with ADD, or busy lives, scroll to the end to see my synopsis.

Lets start with the definition of conspiracy, " any concurrence in action; combination in bringing about a given result." Other definitions involved criminal intent, etc, but I believe this one is suited best.

I believe that people in a similar situation, with similar values, with similar goals, will have similar wants and needs. For example, if you poll a bunch of "white, upper/middle class yuppies in Westfield, NJ", their voting habits, preferences for politics, etc will be "more aligned" than say, homeless people in NYC. The fact that Westfield, NJ residence may (I have no proof, an example) resist selling their house to someone they percieve as a threat to the image of Westfield, NJ, does not, in itself, make all people in Westfield, co-conspirators.

For someone who does not understand the background, mindset, and history of westfield, NJ, new to the area, if they felt they are being not treated fairly, may see all those involved "conspiring" against them.

So, in my opinion, a group of people, with like dispositions, with similar power (actions), together, does not make a conspiracy. To me the foundation for 99.99% of all conspiracies presented today is based upon seeing similiar behaviors and explaining it with a conspiracy.

For example, the mass fraud committed across the world by selling mortgages to people who in no way, could ever pay them off, does not mean there was a consirpacy among bankers to defraud. What is more likely, is once the RULES OF THE GAME WHERE CHANGED BY THE GOVERNMENT, the players (bankers) across the world found themselves with a similar desire to maximize profits by selling mortgages, repackaging them as "MBS", and reap huge personal profits. As the sales process became harder, the solution was to reduce the standards of loans, rather than the management and sales teams reduce their personal income.

Every step, from the realator to bank presidents where affected. Many politicians where incentified through donations, and the "quick" economic boost their voters experienced. The majority of the people in the world didn't care, their personal world seemed fine.

If you where to look at a group of people at a company, you could say that corporation boards "conspire" to increase profits, families "conspire" to provide a stable home and well being for their kids.

Synopsis
Take any conspiracy, and try to position it in this light, and you will see that the far majority of situations can be explained away as "like minded people" behaving in concert, rather than an overt gathering to plot/conspire to achieve a result.

I find that conspiracy buffs behave similar to some pagan religious beliefs. Looking deeper than the surface image takes work, and thought. Think for yourself before pushing or accepting a conspiracy theory.

UPDATE: 1-28-2016 , Great Article on probability:  http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0147905

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