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Thursday, September 1, 2011

Know when to hold them, when to walk away

For those who may have not heard, President Obama is giving a speech that includes a job plan next week.
Considering all I have written in this blog over the years - since GW Bush was in office - I am not one that is optimistic of quick fix schemes.

So while it is possible Mr. Obama surprises me with his speech, it is more likely to disappoint.
What will likely follow is a market swoon, which may eventually reach a climax with the Federal Reserve Board making an announcement late September about QE3, or some other action, to pump the system, yet again.

Given where the market is, the questions I have over Obama speech next week, and the Federal Reserve Board's 2 day special meeting at end of September, I just don't like the setup.

When your gambling at a poker table, and the participants make your skin crawl, sometimes it just best to not play.

The market hasn't yet hit S & P 500 at 1250 like I had hoped, but its close enough. Today's high was 1,229. Reflecting back, today was probably the best day to sell.

So I will be a day late, but it is better to act than to be a deer in headlights.

Bottom line:
Selling longs
Keeping core gold miner positions
Keeping AVL

** Update 2013 ** Below looks simply insane to me, the 3x funds are a horror show and PCLN hit 1000
I may add some to DXD or other inverse funds. For those of a true gambling nature, FAZ right here may be interesting. Take a look at this chart, looking good. FAZ at 55 is a true gambler's play, a 3x inverse banking fund, that can explode or implode on any given day.

Oh and the short of the year? Probably PCLN, look at the last 10 days...up 20%!!

DISCLOSURE: I am short PCLN at about the current price, 529.

Good luck.

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