With the government passing the budget, some may think the market will roar back to new highs.
Actually, all it guards against is record lows. Meaning with the support it is now extremely unlikely we can hit 2008 low of SPX 666 (recent low was 2009). I think the very bottom with support is around 1600. Doesn't mean the market will go that low, but that is the effect of economic support.
To get to new highs, we need an economy as profitable as it was before. Further, we need corporations to not save, and take all savings to buy back stock as they did the last two years. I think both of these items are off the table for 2020. Therefore unless the government just buys up stock until we hit new highs, the market will not get there.
In the weeks ahead, if SPX hits 3090, consider to start to selling. To me a 50% retrace back to old highs will be a gift, and purely a result of temporary optimism and goosing the economy with free money.
For Wednesday I doubt we will see a rally that compares to yesterday, best we can hope for is a gain of 1-5%, but time will tell. We could easily see a decline , as the bill being passed doesnt equal the money is being spent today. The money will take time to push into the market place.
I sold my 3x longs, lightened up a little on other longs, but I am net long, with heavy emphasis on GDX, GXJ, and GOLD.
Good luck!
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