Using latest statistics, I compiled what this may potentially play out if environment or action doesn't change the trajectory.
The key take away is people can't appreciate exponential numbers. Look how quickly things can get out of control. I still hope the curve goes down materially in APRIL, and if it does the worst case count depicted below on May 4th may be by end of June as the infection rate slows.
Keep in mind, there are less than 1 million hospital beds in USA, and a fraction of that is available, and a fraction of them have devices to help keep you breathing.
Not advocating panic, but do recommend reading "Covid-19 What is next?". Also I can't imagine this is good for the stock market. Good luck!
Make no mistake, this is a Global Pandemic and the "once in a hundred years" kind of a pathogen. It hit the most populous country and the 2nd largest economy in the world.
ReplyDeleteBut, the mortality is low. It is not as deadly as it is contagious. The real mortality is even lower that what the figures indicate (simply because there are many many affected people out there that have not been tested either because they don't know that they have the virus or the symptoms are very mild). I think this too shall pass. Hedge Funds and Big Money managers love volatility and weak hands are being shaken out as investors have taken a back seat.
Completely agree. Rate is likely 1.4% or lower. HOWEVER, I'd like to understand what the mortality rate is if you cannot be treated. Meaning hospitals are full, there isn't enough breathing assistance machines, or shortage of medicine. Did you know 80% of medicine is made in China? They may not deliver what we need when we need it. So while it is much lower, I question with medicine shortage, medicine device shortage, and hospital space shortage it would remain 1.4% or lower. I WELCOME a comment to counter this thinking! Any numbers on open beds and unused breathing support machines welcome! (I couldn't find stats)
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