On the plus side, I feel confident to speak reasonably on topics, like Covid-19 now.
This post if for me, not you, to ensure I did what I can to help the people help themselves.
This will be my LAST post on this topic, until a full blown pandemic breaks out.
This post if for me, not you, to ensure I did what I can to help the people help themselves.
This will be my LAST post on this topic, until a full blown pandemic breaks out.
Whats Next?
I am starting to believe Covid-19 will NOT hit pandemic levels until winter of 2020-21 in mainland USA. It's and educated guess, but this isn't the end of this story!
The Spanish Flu in 1918 evolved the same way, smaller outbreak in early 1918, and full pandemic in winter of 1918-1919. I am believe this is the route the world will take.
There are two events that can change this outcome. If we develop a vaccine that is proven safe and effective for US citizens to take in the 200 million+ volume, before the winter.
Second, if we develop a drug that is mass manufactured, safe, to curb the people who get hit hard. This would turn the mass sickness into a scary, but treatable disease.
I really doubt the vaccine route, and hope for the miracle drug route. But keep in mind, historically science hasn't produced volumes of medicines for existing viruses in short periods of time.
I put links that helped me shape my reasoning, feel free to provided your own to me in the comments! Cite your source that you base your opinion please!
The next 6 months
We will continue to have huge fear due to the explosive nature of the virus. While hospitals in USA are not saturated, the death rate maybe lower than 2.5% expectation. In China, the whisper number for untreated is 18% mortality rate.
What is important is if this does fizzle out to NOT get complacent! This winter I expect the worst case scenario to be on the table. That gives you time to get ready.
Just like in early January how every pundit said the market is going up 20-30% this year, so will pundits say it Covid-19 was overblown by June. Don't get fooled.
I have had some friends say that suggesting preparation is equivalent to selling your house, moving to the woods, and getting guns. Far from it! All I am suggesting is you take moderate steps to be prepared for whatever the next 12 months brings. If we do lock-down in the USA, supplies and safety will change. Think of your family. What will you say to loved ones? You are hoping for the best? My question is, why not prepare? What is there to lose? My suggestions are minimal additional cost to your normal spend.
Alton's Antibiotics and Infectious Disease: The Layman's Guide to Available Antibacterials in Austere Settings
The Survival Medicine Handbook: A Guide for When Help is Not on the Way
AudioBook - The Prepper's Guide
Podcast links below are specific episodes that I found good. Browse for new material on these channels.
The Coronavirus goes Global (NYT) (2/27/20)
COVID Super-Spreader Stealth Pandemic? (2/24/20)
Economic Outlook (Covid-19 is just accelerating)
All-Stars #94 Jeff Snider: The slowdown started before the Coronavirus hit the tape! (2/25/20)
What they are doing is not investment (Written before market crash 2/20)
Quote: Expect the S&P 500 to lose about two-thirds of its value over the coming years
Supplies
Simply buy non-perishable food you will use over the year ahead. Some ideas are wide variety of canned items, pasta, flour, sugar, condensed milk, condiments, spices, rice, beans, cereals, bottled water, and fill your freezer with protein. (chicken/pork/meat). Don't forget your animals!
Closing
By no means do I think above is complete and/or accurate. Purpose is to simply consider trying to be prepared. When China locked down 780 million people it was sudden and enforced by military. Other countries like Italy are following suite. There will not be a window to act, you have to be prepared ahead of time.
What is important is if this does fizzle out to NOT get complacent! This winter I expect the worst case scenario to be on the table. That gives you time to get ready.
Just like in early January how every pundit said the market is going up 20-30% this year, so will pundits say it Covid-19 was overblown by June. Don't get fooled.
Why Prepare?
COVID-19 if it becomes a pandemic in the next 12 months will take out 3 million people in the USA, and that stat could go much higher. This isn't fantasy, its based on all the facts known today about the mortality rate and infection rate. As I stated, I think this is more likely in winter 2020 than now. But no one really knows. The only good news is kids under age 17 seem to have a higher resistance and are not catching it .I have had some friends say that suggesting preparation is equivalent to selling your house, moving to the woods, and getting guns. Far from it! All I am suggesting is you take moderate steps to be prepared for whatever the next 12 months brings. If we do lock-down in the USA, supplies and safety will change. Think of your family. What will you say to loved ones? You are hoping for the best? My question is, why not prepare? What is there to lose? My suggestions are minimal additional cost to your normal spend.
Preparation outline.
Preparation is pretty simple really. Breaks down to these four high level topics.- Learn preparedness, listen to events, take ownership.
- Cleanliness - Start today and keep up a habit of cleanliness. Keep hands away from your face, wash hands and use 70%+ Alcohol to sterilize your hands.
- Supplies - Buy food, medicine, and supplies that you will consume over the next 6-12 months anyway.
- Extra precautions - Buy a few items you typically don't need, NIOSH rated protective gear, and plan to treat a sick family member.
Learn
Books recommended in a podcast, I ordered but haven't read yet.Alton's Antibiotics and Infectious Disease: The Layman's Guide to Available Antibacterials in Austere Settings
The Survival Medicine Handbook: A Guide for When Help is Not on the Way
AudioBook - The Prepper's Guide
Podcast links below are specific episodes that I found good. Browse for new material on these channels.
The Coronavirus goes Global (NYT) (2/27/20)
COVID Super-Spreader Stealth Pandemic? (2/24/20)
Economic Outlook (Covid-19 is just accelerating)
All-Stars #94 Jeff Snider: The slowdown started before the Coronavirus hit the tape! (2/25/20)
What they are doing is not investment (Written before market crash 2/20)
Quote: Expect the S&P 500 to lose about two-thirds of its value over the coming years
Cleanliness
After MUCH reading, the best protection is keeping your hands away from your eyes/nose/mouth, and sterilizing your hands frequently. If you are not around someone you know has a virus, any mask is good. The purpose of the mask isn't to clean the air, but to stop YOU from touching your eyes/nose/mouth. So anything is good, such as a disposable surgical mask. Buy base on looks, convenience, but no need to ensure it is NIOSH certified N95 or N100.
Good hand cleaners: Portable and refill/home
Simply buy non-perishable food you will use over the year ahead. Some ideas are wide variety of canned items, pasta, flour, sugar, condensed milk, condiments, spices, rice, beans, cereals, bottled water, and fill your freezer with protein. (chicken/pork/meat). Don't forget your animals!
Only thing to consider buying you may not eat is plant protein (beans) and fruit in a can, if you don't normally eat them.
Same with medicine, vitamins, Elderberry, and if you need medication try to have 3 month supply.
Basically pre-buy all supplies to last a few months, and buy what you normally use.
Extra precautions
If any Pandemic hits the USA in the decade ahead, chances are the treatment needed will not scale to treat everyone. For the unlucky persons who catch Covid-19 and it turns int pneumonia , it requires ventilators that need 2-3 people staffed on the machine around the clock to keep the person alive. It is quite possible that if someone catches it your family and is not 'critical condition' the hospital won't take them.
So having masks, gloves, plastic, duct tape, etc does help.
For close contact, N95, R95, P95, N100, R100, or P100 masks would help.
The 100 rating are more effective than 95 rating.
Disposable masks are not available anymore, as the total supply has been consumed in the USA and the world. Disposable masks cannot be effected for weeks or months. (hence disposable).
So if you want to be extra cautious, you can buy more expensive masks that provide longer protection.
So if you want to be extra cautious, you can buy more expensive masks that provide longer protection.
One example is this mask:
And you can get N100 cartridges:
Other options here
Also consider getting bleach, painters plastic, duct tape, eye coverage, etc. This will give you options to create a treatment rook and/or safe spaces.
Closing
By no means do I think above is complete and/or accurate. Purpose is to simply consider trying to be prepared. When China locked down 780 million people it was sudden and enforced by military. Other countries like Italy are following suite. There will not be a window to act, you have to be prepared ahead of time.
No need to freak out, or stop living life, just take reasonable low-cost and effective preparedness measures.
Good luck!
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