Death of this bull market I think has been premature. I covered my shorts, and went long early last week (a tad bit early).
This final bull hurrah is the precursor to the final multi-year decline. What happened over the last few months is EVERYONE became bearish. As a contrarian that invoked my interest to look at the youtubers I follow for feedback. Two of them called for a reversal, and one of them is even calling for approaching and/or making new highs. I am unsure if we will get to new highs, but what I do know is for a multi-year low, everyone must be sucked into the market before the decline can start in earnest.
I will post the investment strategy I am looking to execute on for the next 5-10 years in anticipation that the world will see great growth, it just may not be in the USA.
China is NOT going to get out of this anytime soon, India is what I am looking to invest in.
In any case , I went long ARKK and TQQQ. I did take some off the table at the close today in anticipation nothing goes in a straight line.
Back in 2008 I posted about how the reserve currency of the world changes every ~100 years. The USD has passed 100 years since the Federal Reserve was created, but we still have until 1932~1944 for USD to hit 100 years as the official reserve currency. Looking ahead, The Fed, US Government and Russia/China know our 'kick the can' debt machine will run out of runway in the decade(s) ahead.
So if the world will eventually move off of the USD, what is the best options for the US to align as the new reserve currency? Gold is terrible as it puts control to who can dig gold up quickest, and it isn't easily useable in international exchange. China/Russia currency puts the world at the mercy of dictatorships.
In steps Crypto! The FED asked for feedback on crypto USD, signaling the future of the USD. Making USD into crypto alone doesn't change the world, as it could be viewed as similar as Tether. What will be a change is when ALL USD is only valid if on the USD blockchain. When that occurs, the government could in seconds stop all USD change with any nation, like Russia. Each movement of dollars could be tracked down to the penny of who sent money to who. That is a game changer.
Some have speculated the USD may ban Bitcoin, I don' think so. They can bury Bitcoin with regulation, taxation, or other measures. Bitcoin must survive as a 'plan b' for the USD world reserve currency (store of value, not actually a currency) for international banks to exchange reserves. This could become the alternative to USD for 'reserves' only, not for actual money per say.
Last night, 3/9, Biden issued an executive order on Cryptos. While itself doesn't say much, the timing is huge. Russia is trying to take over the Ukraine, the US is doing everything it can to financially punish Russia, and Biden just signaled to the world, the US is moving forward. Russia and China will be offering a backward look, gold and central control.
The world will need to choose in the years ahead. Go Crypto!
The Federal Reserve bank just froze bank reserves within Russia. This step has been taken before from what I read in WW2. We are dancing on the edge of something big in the USD financial system. Dare I say that the cascading consequences of asset devaluation in Russia, and counter party risk, plus assets unable to pay debts, we are lighting a fuse.
I know the US must take such steps to discourage Russia from aggression. Ukraine is paying the highest price right now, but the world may also suffer with economic consequences. I still think the market rebounds to form a mega right shoulder, but it wouldn't surprise me if the market throws in the towel from here.
Ray Dalio is a world leader in financial markets, as head fund manager of Bridgewater Associates, managing over 140 Billion dollars. I am very pleased to share a well done summary of how our current global finance fits in the the history over the last 500 years.
History doesn't repeat itself exactly, but patterns do exist. This is true simply because age old issues humanity faces are consistent across our entire history. The shape and situation varies, but human social and economic problems are never resolved.
I have been watching Emil Kalinowski for about the last year, he does a fantastic job as a youtuber talking about Macro economics and the banking system.
This excellent video really digs in about the FED QE effects, they do NOT print money, they only generates bank reserves. Most people believe FED QE promotes economic growth, in reality it is financial repression every time they do a QE. It does promote existing wealth, not new growth. Grab a cup of coffee, grab a seat in a quiet area, it is a dense listen.
The economy is on fire, with hiring at huge pay increases. That's good right?
Well, for the Federal Reserve Bank, the worst situation is run-away inflation. That is the only way for the US dollar to become no longer the store of value the world depends upon. There are soo many bonds out there, that if fear truly took hold, we would see rates catapult quickly as treasuries dump.
So the FED is forced to throw water on the economy. The top 0.05% of the wealthiest are looking further out than the vast majority of investors. IF (this is an IF) the FED must take aggressive action, the wealthiest will dump as it becomes more apparent the FED must take action.
The saying is Never fight the FED, well, this is the same for up and down for the market.
But I do think the market will move higher first. The purple outlines the 'head and shoulders' mega topping pattern we may be seeing unfold. We had many people in total fear, since the top, and huge fear with Russia. Russia will pass, America will open up from COVID, and I think we get a nice bounce into the summer, then fail hard core before the elections. The top is still likely in, simply because as the market tries to make new highs, there will be more dumping by the top 0.05%. Good luck!
It may seem like the market whips around with amazing volatility, but that is only if you are watching it daily. Pulling back, the topping pattern and decision to fail or recover takes months, if not years! We have been within a market 10% range for 10 months! I still have 99% conviction unless there is free money from the government issued to the people, we will see a deflationary decline. Why? Because the market advanced on an 6 trillion dollar spending spree, and removing that funding will over time deflate. Also because costs across the board are up, which means less can be bought by the average person. And finally, the FED is trying to choke the system by raising rates and reigning in free money.
The question is, can things turn around before we deflate? We need free money, when that happens, the bottom is near.
Looking at the charts, we are waiting for a break below SPY 417, until that happens, we are in a range, enjoy the ride. Target is SPY about 330. The charts say it should go to the lowest green line below, but I am now thinking that far down free money will resume first. Maybe with Fed Crypto Dollar. A break above the red line it is a bullish turn. Good luck!
Pulling back even further, the easy money policies under Trump fueled this entire rally! Biden has yet to pass ANY budget! Trump brought tax cuts, tax breaks to bring money back from overseas, government 1 trillion debt spending for 2019, then the 6 trillion spending bill in 2020, and in 2020 interest rates going to near zero. All the easy buttons are pressed! Biden needs the republican support to continue free money policies extending from Trumps policies, but I don't see that happening without a major financial crisis.
First, I am confident the market will be cut in half from the highs, it may take a year or two, but we will get there. Since there is no rush to get there, its important to look for bounces to unwind longs and/or go short.
The market created a failure last week, there is a new "lower lower" vs a "higher high", the market character has changed. We are now in a bear market for the next few years, like it or not. There are ways out, for example, if congress issues 8 or 16 trillion dollars in debt to match or exceed the money spend on 2020, the market will go to new highs. With Democrat's in office there is zero chance of deficit spending to this magnitude, that only happens under Republicans in office. This isn't a about which party is better, its simply a fact, look it up. (since Reagan, before it was the opposite) I'll write up more what's ahead, for now these are the areas to watch:
S&P 500 close below 417 and the market is going down hard. First support is 433, I think we may bounce off of it this week (today?). To learn more watch the first half of this video. High level picture of the market failure (top green line) and the target (bottom green line) and we may pierce that one.
I believe in about two weeks, the pandemic is over! COVID will be around decades. But the pandemic phase is ending, just in time for St Pattys! I’ll post graphs in a week or so to document the end of this scourge!
Since 2006 I have been concerned about the day the market makes a long term top, and we are finally here. For me its pretty odd, as I have no magical place to put investments. I do have some in Bitcoin, which should be cut down to $20K again, (an eventual upside I still think is 100K and higher), Gold miners should also be brutalized. I expect flight to Bonds to eventually happen causing rates to collapse and bond values to skyrocket. AFTER that happens, we could have a dollar crisis.
The problem is when is the top, has it passed? Is it this week? The motto is 'don't fight the Fed', and they are about to taper. That should help create resistance and may inadvertently trigger a market downturn, like the great depression.
We think there is inflation, and there is, from distribution and resource constraints. But that isn't monetary inflation, so with the FED initiating steps to curb inflation, it is a mis-read that its money inflation.
Don't believe me, lets take a look at the USD value index.
The US dollar is around 1996-2002 levels, hardly a crisis. (yet!)
The question is how to navigate the transition period ahead, as previously mentioned, we have historic margin in the market, with insider selling at record highs. That means the public is buying stocks with borrowed money while the corporate insiders are selling. Even Mr. Musk and his brother sold a bit of stock near the high.
Long term, I have huge faith in buying INDIA ETF's, I'll end up putting a chunk into India, I'll post the ETF's when I do. I also have some in JEPI, hoping it fare wells with market turmoil over time.
As a follow up to my last post, A Cancelled Christmas, I'd like to review how things have progressed in the last two weeks with a series of charts.
USA
NJ
NJ has reported about 180,000 cases since Jan 1st.
Florida
Florida has reported 320,000 new COVID cases since Jan 1st.
ICU availability in Florida
I couldn't find a chart of ICU stats that cover all of Florida. But I did find an interactive map, and I took a snapshot around "the villages", currently at 74% ICU bed usage. Remember, people go to the ICU after fighting COVID for days or weeks before it gets that bad. For example, two weeks ago there was 2,000 COVID patients in the hospital across Florida, today its over 8,000. That means in two weeks we should have 5,000 to 32,000 patients in the hospital, depending when the peak hits. If the peak is a week out, I would assume hospital capacity will be reached.
It shows 31 hospitals with average 9 available ICU beds = 279
Image below.
ICU availability in NJ
Using the same approach for NJ, I covered the NJ/Staten island area to avoid NYC hospitals. The ICU occupancy is 45%, with average 26 beds over 38 hospitals for total of 988 available ICU beds.
Image below.
Final thoughts
COVID is everywhere, I know over a dozen people right now that have COVID. The VAST majority its not a life threatening illness when vaccinated with a booster. My continual concern isn't about getting COVID and dying, its getting COVID at a time hospitals are stretched, and due to lack of capacity dying or having a more severe illness.
So in the spirit of a cancelled Christmas, its a Cancelled January! But I do expect we are about to see the peak and the final hurrah of this plague. I will eventually get COVID, my goals is to catch it as as the hospital capacity is opening up rather than filling up.
Going into this holiday season, I was concerned that COVID infections would rise, especially after Thanksgiving. Unfortunately, the infection rate is way worse than I expected. There is some evidence that Omicron is less deadly than other strains. However the exact figure of less deadly is not known, is it 10%, 50%, 75% less deadly? While 10% is good news, I am not confident enough to go back to normal.
The infection rate of Omicron is 400% (r0 = 10, 1 infects 10 people) more infectious than the original COVID strain (r0=2.5), so even if less deadly the number of cases at the same time should wipe out the benefit "per day of deaths". Its hard to appreciate the exponential growth impact. But graphs can show the effect of exponential growth, for example the graph in NJ below shows the rate of infection occurring:
12/23/2021
Notice the STEEP rise on the right, and how materially higher infection rate is growing RIGHT as we hit a cherished holiday. Next week will be an epic pandemic infection rate like never seen before in human history. Lets take an even CLOSER look.
December 13th there was 3,279 new cases reported, 10 days later we are reporting 11,906 cases. After the holidays what is your estimated number of new cases per day? 24,000? 50,000? If we are to believe r0=10, then we should easily hit 100K new cases a day in NJ alone.
The Challenge - Passing through the Eye of the storm
But right now, the challenge is what will be the effect on personal health if you get COVID when the hospitals are completely over-run? Will patient care result in better or worse outcomes than we been observing the last few weeks? In my opinion with hospitals over-run, we will run out of ventilators, drug shortages, and worse yet, tight on nurses/doctors to help the sick. (Talking to a nurse, she said one hospital in NJ, all their ventilators are taken by vaccinated people.)
This is my primary concern, to get COVID and the wrong time, and not get the care needed to ensure a positive outcome.
If we can make it to the spring, alive, and in good health, I believe we will be FINALLY can move on with COVID being an all consuming topic. For my family, that means a cancelled Christmas, and I hope to see you for many Christmases to come. If visiting people not from your immediate household, I recommend everyone wear genuine masks. (Prefer N95 provides self protection)
Take care and have a happy holiday season with your immediate family.
Today I have three great videos that summarizes the effect of Quantitative Easing.
First is from the YouTuber Bond King, what is QE, and what they are doing in the marketplace.
Many think QE is 'money printing', in effect like a banana republic just printing money and injecting it into the economy. The first question I have, how can the Federal Reserve "give" money it creates out of thin air into the monetary system? There is no method it can do so currently. (I suspect it will eventually with a crypto dollar issued by the Fed, but that's years off.)
What it is doing is "swapping assets", specifically swapping out US bonds with Federal Reserve Assets. The reasoning is to try to suppress interest rates and strengthen the dollar. Lets take a look at bond rates and dollar valuation since 2009 to see if this is indeed the result. US Bond Rates are down and dollar is up. This supports it isn't going Banana republic and printing money like Weimar republic. (If you believe different, please add in comments the rational and data to support!)
The Video that explains the mechanics of QE is below, interestingly this video says the fed gives an impression to suppress bond rates, but he doesn't say it is actually effective. After this video, below is another that shows the fed doesn't actually suppress bond rates, but gives an illusion it does.
If the fed is able to suppress bond rates, then market signals cannot be trusted. Historically the financial system uses bond rates to indicate risk on-risk off in investments. My personal belief is QE helps stabilize rates by reducing the potential volatility of bond selling, but the actual rates are in fact reflective of what the market is willing to support. It reduces volatility by putting the asset in control of the Federal reserve, out of the hands of institutions that could someday in the future engage in mass selling of federal bonds. By becoming the 'buyer of last resort' for federal bonds, they can prevent a meltdown of US bonds, and therefore a collapse of USD valuation in the future.
What this does do is help banks with confidence in lending, and this is a market psychology rather than 'free money'. Banks can at will create millions if not billions of dollars with no reserves, they are the TRUE creators of money/debt/credit out of 'thin air' And unless banks lend, there is no money growth.
The video that walks through how QE has NOT rigged the bond market rates.
Net result? Federal Reserve bank, even if it cant suppress rates, or print money, it presents itself like it can. It supports the market Psychology that it is somehow 'rigging the market'. That helps create debt/credit creation by banks which does in fact inject new money into the system. But it isn't banana republic money creation, people have collateral against this debt, and banks could liquidate customer assets as required.
But there is another angle, WHAT assets does the Federal Reserve buy? US Treasuries AND distressed assets. For the moment we will count US treasuries as reliable, but distressed assets? These are assets no one wants to buy, unless there is a deep discount. But the fed buys distressed assets without ANY discount. Further if these assets lose money or implode? It doesn't matter, the fed can print as much money as it wants to stabilize those assets. THIS is inflationary! Because if the federal reserve didn't buy these distressed assets there would be a deflationary price to dump them, and a likely cascade of deflation as it helps kick off a chain reaction of deflation. (margin calls, banks raising more capital to cover losses, etc) THIS is the leaking of money into the economy, through bad loans having no consequences. And when you remove consequences from actions, you are destroying the strength of capitalism.
To learn more, watch this:
Generally speaking majority of new debt is created by those who have collateral. Those people tend to have assets like houses, stocks, and yes bonds. They are the ones who don't take a huge hit on the failed assets, and are able to continue to benefit more of wealth growth. They can then add to their assets more loans to buy houses, stocks, and even bonds. The vast majority of money creation by the banks therefore is slanted to make the rich richer without the larger consequences of deflationary events. Its is ponzi like, as the system depends on growth to sustain asset appreciation of those who already have assets. Now is there any way to prove this is the result of QE? At the bottom is my final chart, you be the judge.
As long as the world demands dollars (USD is the world reserve, 'gold standard' holding), I don't know when this dance ends. I suspect US Treasuries hit on average about zero across 1, 5, 7, 10, 20, and 30 year holdings. For at that point asset investments may seek a new store of value. As this unfolds, together we will learn more about a breaking point.
According to media, year over year black Friday sales are down 28%.
Without free money from the government, it seems like purchasing is down. Who could have guessed?
To add fuel to the fire, small businesses panicked and over ordered inventory, creating a potential economic disaster ahead. What if people just don't spend? What will happen to businesses with merchandise that doesn't move?
I see an epic price deflationary shock ahead, beating Black Friday sale prices as small businesses try to avoid bankruptcy.
To learn more of what small businesses are doing with inventory check out the link below, and economic data showing inventory RISING by a full 1% last quarter as the popular story is exhausting inventories. The reality is the world shifted consumption patterns, and the just in time production line is in chaos. Items being scarce is a reflection of we are eating home, buying things at home, causing strain on those items. Debt is rising at a historic rate.
The new Covid variant is a great way to get another leg up in the market. Sound counter intuitive? Look at the results with the last variant. The threat will give the central banks cover to ease more, and the variant is likely to not be worse than before (for now) so more good news to goose the market.
If you are bullish and have spare capital, you can look for an entry.
How do we know when the bull is dead?
S&P 500 close below 4300
QQQ close below 387
I am most bullish on bitcoin, next stop 85K
I still see a market top between now and Q1 2022, the market could still run into end of year at a new high, or the high is in. I really don't have any opinion, just in the short term, this will be a buying opportunity with the BULL news cycle.
I have been concerned about this moment since 2009, when I realized the Federal Reserve and the government would not hold to capitalism and tip the scales to accommodation. Back in 2007 the Federal Reserve owned about 850 billion in assets, now its 8.5 Trillion. Talk about accommodation! In the last 8 months the US government ran through 8 Trillion dollars, mind you this money was all approved under Trump. The Biden administration has yet to pass any spending, and I have to imagine they will try to beat previous administration in deficit spending.
But can they? We have seen the consequences of free money at the wrong time. The actions of world governments during a pandemic has disrupted the just in time production. Between US fracking going bankrupt in 2020, crippling US oil production and China decided to punish Australia by stop buying coal, kicking off a ripple effect of a fuel shortage across the globe.
Energy prices are soaring, and in the US natural gas prices are soaring due to rising natural gas prices jumping 30% (so far!). Higher energy means higher costs on food, good, and services, at a time that US consumer debt has shot up the quickest in history after free money checks ended.
At this point, there is no way to stabilize the system, the participants just want an excuse to blame 'someone else' for the largest debt collapse in history. China is fighting for the pole position as the largest real estate ponzi scheme in history collapses.
Oddly, their troubles are causing a shortage of US dollars, and the only way to fix that is to pass very large debt spending bills in the US, and the Republicans are fighting it. With a US dollar shortage it threatens to create a dollar rising triggering a cascade of company failures to repay debt in US dollars back across the world.
Interest rates are near all time lows, with 30 year rates below 2%! When this thing blows, we may see a collapse that makes 2008 look like an opening act. The trouble is what to put your assets in? Pure cash is best unless the Federal Reserve, in a panic, makes a policy error trying to staff off this collapse spooking the world on the dollar as a reserve.
For me, I may dump a portion of my bitcoin between 80-85k, and sit in cash or look for scaling in, yet again, short positions. That didn't work out so well for me the last time I tried that, I was of course a bit early. And that's the trouble, we can see the market go 100% higher from here, some sort of epic crack up boom like the world has never seen. Then something happens and its crack down like the world has never seen.
For me, my core will remain Bitcoin. Some physical gold is good too. Good luck with riding the market up, and down, just let me know what floor is best to get off. I cannot tell until everyone sees it.
To truly understand how distorted US assets are read this post. IMO The stock market will crack 50-75% lower and the US may have a 5-15 year depression. The only exception of that can be if a new, even more massive intervention occurs. I believe that will be AFTER the collapse giving the excuse for the Federal Reserve and world banks issuing their own crypto currency. With it, they can control you money with every move, and even expire it, the final attempt at ultimate central control to 'fix things'.
WARNING: If US federal bonds gain meaningful momentum for rising rates, its game over for the dollar. As people dump their US bonds for dollars, we will see a tsunami of dollars unleashed and a rapid rise in borrowing costs causing the entire system to unwind. I think this is VERY LOW probability of happening in the next 5 years. But it does highlight how the FED cannot meaningful raise rates as it could trigger the end of their reign.
I share these select videos to help you understand what shapes my view, I welcome you sharing a video that refines these views or counters them, enjoy!
We are in the Fourth Turning, this video explains it. World history and how every ~60 years the entire economic model hits a crisis period that lasts about 20 years. Our crisis period is 2008 though 2028. It is my obsession to be 'ready' for the next boom.
This video also lays out how we each fall into how this plays out. I am part of the Awakening type. My role is to fix the messes, left by others. Boy does that ring true!
A very high level video of the power of Defi (which I completely believe in) on how it will help the world.
A good chart analysis comparing our current situation to the 1929 era, and the similar trap the Federal Reserve finds itself in.
A reading of an essay from a global macro analyst, talking about mechanics of global monetary policy. This one has a focus around China and CNY currency and its future devaluation.
A good video explaining the current valuation of Bitcoin, and the setup towards 100K
A reading about the global financial system and how critical bank loans are to the world economy, and lack of lending will not lead to a growing economy.
In my post All Easy Buttons pressed, the top is near, I believe the USA is near a stock market top. The timing is impossible to spot the exact top, I think it will be January. But the top is relative to actions taken, so its impossible to target the exact level or date.
What I can say with complete certainty the stock market got here due to government and Federal Reserve Bank intervention in an attempt to 'avoid pain'. In a capitalistic market, you WANT pain, for pain helps the market regulate investment. For example, if oil companies have profit challenges and price problems, it could accelerate investment in alternative energy. However it is very unpopular to allow capitalism yield higher cost energy. So the can is kicked by any way possible. Now take this action and apply it to the entire US economy.
Does anyone believe the US economy is at the healthiest it has ever been in US history? Not only that, that the years ahead will yield much better economic results? If so, then the stock prices are well deserved.
In my opinion the free money bonanza that accelerated under President Trump, doubled down with the pandemic. The year 2021 spending was approved by Trump and Republicans. The 2022 spending will require Republican approval, but will block free money with a Democratic president.
The inflation we are experiencing in my opinion is a result of economic shock combined with Just in Time manufacturing, and innovation over the last twenty years. This will force the Federal Reserve to make a policy mistake, triggering the market decline, just like 1929. To learn more, watch this video here.
We have conditioned the US economy that the public and companies are NOT the engine of the economy, but the government and Federal Reserve is. So with the next decline the entire country will ask for more quick fixes, the next round should really crush the US economic dream.
Lower interest rates (real rates may even go negative!) MORE free money by aligning the Federal Reserve bank and US treasury resulting in corporate and direct to people (universal Basic Income) Expand and accelerate federal reserve buying private assets including banks! Try to fix things with higher taxes on the top 0.01%, but eventually top 5%... Issue price controls as the problems are blamed on the 'greedy corporations'.
This will result in massive shocks to the US economy, that I don't think will yield good results. Peoples investments must be defensive for an ever increasing stock market may not be in the USA future in the decade ahead. The cracks are many, from China's energy shocks, the largest ponzi scheme in history blowing up in China real estate, price shocks in natural resources, Amazon and Apple issuing earnings warnings in the year ahead, and threats to extended US supply crisis. I am working to create the right mix of investments for me, and I will share my view when I am ready. For now, that's why I am in Bitcoin, India ETF's, and revenue stream ETFs.
I fully believe a generational market top will be between Sept 2nd through January 2022. With a 13 year bull run, it is immaterial which month the ultimate top is in. The only reason I am not stating the top is in is first, I cannot know, but second the fear indicator is high, this leaves room for a rally to resume.
Feel free to click on links when provided to learn more.
Inflation or Inflation?
Consumer cost inflation is very high, and likely to continue. Cheap goods come from China, and they are in an energy crisis. That means ALL goods from China will have costs go up and export higher costs to the world. Pair that with transportation skyrocket costs and local production disruptions, everything is destined to go up. I actually do think some of it is transitory, but most things will never return to 2019 pricing. Higher prices will cause economic negative impact to profits and growth.
People are demanding higher wages for SOME jobs, and other jobs will see pressure for higher wages to adjust for cost of living. This will force some jobs to be outsourced or reduce company hiring.
Asset inflation of houses and stock market will be under pressure as people have less money to put into these assets.
The US has pressed all the easy buttons to goose the economy since 2008. Low interest rates, trillions of free money, under Trump very low corporate tax and low tax to 'pull US money' from overseas. As a result, there is very little easy buttons to press to goose more out of the economy. Does anyone really think if we enter a recession, lowing 30 year borrowing rates from 3% to 1% will spur material growth?
US dollar IS the global reserve currency
The global reserve currency status is very much mis-understood. If the US cut back issuing new dollars, it will have the effect of every other currency experiencing a rising dollar value. This will force other countries to also reduce their spending to keep their currency in a 'trading range' those countries find acceptable for pricing in the global economy. In effect, when the US cuts new dollars, so goes the world. If the US increases dollar creation, others are more able to increase their currency creation due to currency pricing compared to dollar valuation. Countries that fail to curtail a rising dollar, will pay a huge economic price as debt priced in dollars will crush companies in that country.
So if America cuts spending due to fears of debt creation, the world will also cut spending, this means a global slowdown.
US Stock markets are at extreme historically high prices
With free money ending, the fake demand ends, and the poverty stricken America hangover can resume.
If I get this wrong, as I did in January 2021, approval of a large enough free money bonanza could kick the market out for continuing highs until the free money isn't large enough to sustain the new day traders of 2020.
Conclusion
We are very close to a multi-year high, potentially 5+ years, with a 50% market cut (potentially 80%, but I doubt it) However monetary action does matter. if the US resumes free money for everyone the market high is likely quite a bit out. China stops the worlds largest ponzi scheme from collapsing and resumes inflating the bubble, or OPEC and RUSSIA provide maximum energy output my view would change.
Barring these actions, it is not a great time to buy for a 20% gain, but instead good to take some risk off.
Risk off can be US bonds or diversifying into growth countries like India. Alternately take a chance on a deflationary asset like Bitcoin which may do very well in a deflationary collapse. Good luck!
