Obama's Birth Certificate

This post is a dive into politics, if you have no interest, move along.

Obama's birth certificate has been a long running contentious topic. Allegedly, Obama is not a native born American, and therefore he legally cannot be president.

I heard some of the arguments, and I did not have any strong opinions either way. I did think, knowing politics, he may not be native born. In principle this is a very important topic, for it follows in my concern that the USA doesn't enforce the law as evenhanded as it should, see corruption posts.

So this item came back up, and for some reason, the white house decided to publish Obama's birth certificate. Karl of the Market ticker does a great job exploring this topic, and has some astute observations. I have to say, he has a compelling argument that the white house birth certificate has issues. And if it does have issues, I'd have to jump to the conclusion its a cover up, and therefore Obama is illegally president of the USA.

I find one of Karl's points very compelling. quote:

Other curiosities include the fact that the time of birth is exactly the same on the (now-discredited - or is it?) Kenyan birth certificate that has been floating around the Internet, and that registration dates on the long-form match the Kenyan "forgery" as well. How did a purely fraudulent document in a foreign nation happen to wind up with the exact same time of birth and certification dates as the alleged "real" certificate - if Hawaii never released the latter information until now? That's a hell of a coincidence. Yes, I know the time of birth was "out there." The certification dates were not, to the best of my ability to determine, public knowledge.

If you have interest in this topic, I encourage reading Karl's post here.

The item above alone raises the question to me how the fake kenyan birth certificate matches the exact time and date of the white house version of Obama's official birth certificate.

But this is a moot point, for the who document process above would be very difficult to prove. Therefore I am not sure what good any of this does, for it's likely not easily proven in either direction.

Now lets get back to something easily proven, that the Federal Reserve Bank has committed violations of the constitution and should be dissolved. And focus on enforcing laws and fixing USA finances to prevent a very dismal outcome for the US in the next 10 years.

Comment from friend, Chris Diaz:

The reason the most recently released birth certificate and the forged "Kenyan" certificate have the same time and date is not because they "match". Instead, the most recent long form actually matches the certificate that was rele...ased in 2008 during the campaign, as well it should. The "Kenyan" forgery that appeared about a year or 2 ago simply used the time and date that was listed on the certificate released in 2008 that the birthers and Trump apparently never acknowledged because the president didn't go door to door allowing everyone to examine. That this is still being debated is proof positive of the unfortunate power of conspiracy theories.

Chris, I hate Conspiracy Theories, they are not productive and distract people from focusing on what matters. With that explanation, makes me feel better..and re-enforces its pointless anyway to debate any of this, it doesn't matter.

Jim Willie Interview

I have no idea who Jim Willie is, but his passion and opinions are somewhat in-line with mine.

A good listen.

Jim Willie's site is at: GoldenJackass.com

Federal Reserve Bank Speaks, Dollar tanks

Well, its time for the USD to head into a crisis, and I expect us to now head to break all time lows. The only question is how far down this goes.

If your 100% in cash, you have decided that the crisis will evaporate quickly, and USD will return to highs last year.

If your 100% in gold, you are expecting an all out USD collapse.

I am in the gold camp for the short term, but once break all time lows, it may get interesting. We could have an accelerated USD decline before USD finds strength. But it is possible, although not probable, that the USD headed for all out collapse.

A great blog post that explains why the USD will firm up is available by clicking here.

Click to watch Ben Bernankes speech, its a waste of time to watch. He talks in ridiculous circles and lies. The truth is the market reaction of USD, charts below. And we may finally get 30 year bond rates breaking up, not down, breaking the 25 year downtrend in rates.

I am trying to maintain optimistic USD will bottom and rise, but positioned to protect what savings I have in natural resources if I am wrong.

Hang on, next few weeks will be interesting.

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

This Week in Charts

Day late, dollar short......

Pretty much the only thing to watch is the US Dollar valuation and US long term interest rates. These two items are credited for the primary reason for stock valuations. Why? Because US corporations are international, and when money returns from other countries, since the USD is lower, it "appears" to be companies getting higher revenue on flat (or lower) sales.

This game works until natural resource costs start squeezing profits....and that is where we are today. I think its a "safe" bet to go fully long the market until USD breaks the 2008 and makes all time lows.
Previous post, USD breaking 2009 low.

Until the pattern below breaks, its natural resources up, up, up, and silver is going exponential.

To the charts!

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

Michael Spence

Economics professor Michael Spence was mentioned by Mohamed El-Erian

Figured I'd throw a video up by him

Second video is a series of 4 videos of an interview done

Niall Ferguson

I have posted videos from Niall Ferguson before. This is yet another video where he talks about the western economies, and the cracks appearing.

CORRECTION...USD broke 2009 lows, not 2008 lows

Unfortunately, the tools I use for some of the charts aren't the best. for the USD, I use the link on the right for live USD valuation.

That chart does not show the x Axis...and I mist-took the low to be 2008 low, when it was the 2009 low.

So the USD has not hit bottom yet...so I do expect it to break the 2008 low. I'll most likely be buying back in Silver and gold positions monday. I do agree with Gary of Smart Money tracker on this action.

Here is a chart from the chart store, showing USD from 2000. As of close Thursday, USD did hit a low of about 73.8.

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

USD hits all time low....what is next?

CORRECTION, did NOT HIT 2008 lows, hit 2009 lows. See this link

http://websurfinmurf.blogspot.com/2011/04/correctionusd-broke-2009-lows-not-2008.html

No country in history has flourished with a free floating currency devaluing as a driver.

The question is, how much lower? As the currencies go lower, precious metals explode higher, as other natural resources can go higher.

Could this be the start of the end of the USD? Making not marginal lows but drastic lows from her? Could the USD enter into a death spiral here and now resulting in USD failure?

All of this is possible, anyone who says it isn't possible has a faith based bias on alternate viewpoints. The facts clearly say it is POSSIBLE, but I must agree, not PROBABLE.

Why not probable? Same as it has been since 2008, if the USD implodes, so goes the world. The world hasn't taken enough steps to decouple from USD as the reserve currency. It has made huge progress, and I predict will be ready for USD collapse 2014+, but not yet.

Back to the FACTS about this situation
1) S&P announced DOWNGRADING US credit worthiness, first (baby) step in currency collapse

2) USD hits new LOW, breaking 2008 low. Note the last time this happened, the Fed collapse the market to force people into the USD, contributing to the 2008 market crash.

3) Rumors that China is to increase YUAN valuation by 10%, a significant shift for world's second largest economy. (not fact per say, but we'll know soon)

4) The US government has proposed NO REAL debt reform, forcing dollar lower.

5) Gold, Silver, and precious metals are breaking to the up side.

6) 30 year US treasury rates are going LOWER not HIGHER

Given above and all other information, its very confusing what to do. Gary of the Smart Money tracker gave a tepid partial buy here and now. I bought in SLIGHTLY yesterday back into AVL and AGQ.

So what am I doing? Keeping my core positions through whatever happens, tinie-tiny buy above, and rest cash with a couple of shorts.

SEE UPDATE link

Monday I'll re-evaluate, for if the USD is headed into the abyss, I doubt it collapses over night, there will be time to jump onto precious metals and out of cash. I fear the weekend, for that is when politics announces major changes, shifting the market. The USD is so stretched low, it could jump overnight and crush metals. This is more possible than USD overnight crash.

For this reason, for me its a holding pattern. Good luck. See USD charts below.

Bretton Woods

Bretton Woods System was an historical event where the IMF and world banking establishment was setup, including the USD as the world reserve currency.

The world is changing, and this cannot stay in place for the next 10 years. A nice, quick, video about Bretton Woods System, and new concerns.

Elliot Spitzer calls for Goldman Sachs indictment

CNN video clip where Elliot Spitzer calls for Goldman Sachs to be prosecuted by Attorney General, if not he should resign.

I have no specific comments about indictment of Goldman or not, for I have not read about the current situation.

But I do hope we can have some law enforcement, it has been 2 years since the 2008 collapse, and not one executive has been prosecuted for ANY wrong doing, including the multitude of failed companies. Many of these failed companies have well documented processes that avoided any due diligence for proper lending practices. For TRUST is THE ISSUE! It was in 2008, and it continues today.

Mohamed El-Erian : QE3 would be a very bad idea

Mohamed El-Erian is CEO and CIO of PIMPCO, one of the largest global bond fund managers.

Great video to watch. Second Video is El-Erian talking about Japan

GREAT Quote "The three major currencies all have issues. It's like picking which dirty shirt to wear, you pick your cleanest dirty shirt".

The second video is long, but WELL WORTH the watch!

This Week in Charts

This week in charts!

For the most part, I have no strong opinion on market direction this week, I am leaning towards lower. My primary focus is really waiting to hear if Gary Savage states its time to load up on precious metals.

Otherwise, I am in AVL, added positions to uranium (URA), and have positions in food (RJA, DBA), oil (OIH) and some other resources. And as always, in core gold.

To the charts!

The second chart, with US 30 year bond rates breaking lower, if we go much lower, it may break the back of gold.

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

Precious metals into 2015-2017

I reserve the right to change my view that I have today in the years to come.
For after all, one must remain flexible to change their outlook as new events and information come to light. Those who subscribe to a religious like belief into any one destined outcome are 99.9% likely to be wrong in the final outcome. Only the either super smart, or probably, super lucky, are those that attain the 0.1% correct outcome.

Since the start of this blog, I was ranting about not trusting the stock market valuations, the problems with financial system, the lack of law enforcement, and many other topics. I have evolved into focusing on the positives of investing in natural resources as a long term positive investment. I say long term, but that depends on the sector. For precious metals of gold, silver, etc, I have been quoting in past posts about 2013 and beyond for a top. I have said as far out as 2016, but could be farther.

Gary Savage, of the Smart Money Tracker, has become my guide for precious metals investing. I recently posted how I am sitting more on the sidelines as per his paid service recommendations. I am keeping core positions, as I will until this run ends, sometime after 2013.

Since Gary has become my guide, for precious metals investing, it is important to listen to Gary himself on his vision. I have found a nice interview with Gary about the course through 2017.

Gary DOES NOT look at things like investing in Uranium (URA, CCJ), Rare Earth Minerals (AVL, REE, MCO, LYSCF), Oil and natural gas (OIH, FCG), alternate energy (MGMXF), Food (RJA, DBA) and other resources like I do.


But Gary will probably have the last laugh as he world cannot afford the same parabolic valuation in any of those resource plays as it can in Gold and Silver. For the other resources if they go parabolic, there would be many more countries experiencing revolution. The world can remain relatively stable with expensive gold, for the world truly does not require gold to operate. The other resources....well....without them people die.

So onto Gary's interview, a must watch if your interested in precious metals.

Summary: Gold/Silver A-B-C patterns on stock relies on 3 year cycle low of USD.

2011 will see 3 year dollar low, then 2014, then finally 2016-2017

Gold/Silver will enter into a parabolic upswing for a straight year in the end.

Next cycle for gold top in May-June.

Recommend silver miners, AGQ or GDXJ.

C waves are parabolic moves, so must correct.

During correction, Gold/Silver trade sideways for a year before next C wave advance.

Young Video Blogger I agree with

USD is here to stay.....in the near term. I'll revise judgement around 1015 if by then I think USD is in danger.

Otherwise resources will continue to go up, as USA purchasing power is reduced over time.

US Dollar, Gold, and Market Timing

The US Dollar is heading for a break of the 2009 lows, as you can see in the chart below.

Given my view of the world and gold, my gut tells me I should be all in on gold and miners as the dollar hits the bottom and reverses.

However at this point in the market events, I only trust Gary of the Smart Money Tracker. It has taken me years to get to the point of trusting Gary's judgement, and in this pivotal historical event, I am putting myself in Gary's hands.

I strongly recommend if you are going to play precious metals to pay for Gary's service. I'll honor his service by not repeating or duplicating his charting. But I will lift one quote from Gary's service to summarize his position.

"Once the dollar bottoms then gold will Correct".

Gary has a large amount of material over the last year to support his logic, and I encourage readers to pursue reading why Gary believes above will occur.

Sufficient to say, this is a big leap of faith on my part, for I'll be sitting on my hands waiting for Gary to instruct his readers to push all in. Right or wrong, thats what I am going with.

I am still heavily in AVL, and will likely dump 50% of my position at the moment Gary tells me to go into gold. I reserve the right to change my mind between now and then.

I am also going to buy a little of URA, at about 14.80, ETF for Uranium, to read why, click here.

I do believe once the USD breaks all time lows, we will enter into a surreal market, that will be difficult to navigate. And the politicians you can bet will have a surprise announcement in an attempt to sway the markets. What I am most curious about is what will mark the USD bottom, just mere sentiment and open interest in shorting the dollar? Or will meaningful change of the US government be announced?

The worst case scenario for me is a USD outright drop, and gold spikes up hard, for I then will question Gary's logic. But I think its too early for USD demise, and thats yet another reason why I trust Gary.

And finally, I will not sell my core position in precious metals until a fundamental change occurs in world finance...such as USA proposes a balanced budget and enforces financial laws.

Good luck.

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

Budget cuts from congress is 352 million, not 38 billion

According to the Washington Post:

The Congressional Budget Office estimate shows that compared with current spending rates the spending bill due for a House vote Thursday would cut federal outlays from non-war accounts by just $352 million through Sept. 30. About $8 billion in immediate cuts to domestic programs and foreign aid are offset by nearly equal increases in defense spending.

When war funding is factored in the legislation would actually increase total federal outlays by $3.3 billion relative to current levels.

Like I have said all along, the US MUST have a financial crisis, one that shakes the USD at it's core. This country will not change course unless it is forced to. And does anyone believe that a PROJECTED cut of 352 million for next year will be realized?

Lets put this into perspective, I'll lift an example from blog "Philip Greenspun", but correct the math with the Post's update. (Thanks to Buckridge for the email)

News accounts on the latest federal budget deal gave the numbers in a vacuum, e.g., “The deal cuts $352 million from last year’s budget. It’s being called the largest domestic spending cut in U.S. history” . How can an individual voter make sense of quantities that are ordinarily written in scientific notation? I think the easiest way is to divide everything by 100,000,000 (10^8).

Let’s start with federal spending. The FY 2011 federal budget is approximately $3.82 trillion (3.82×10^12). Of that, approximately $2.17 trillion will be paid for by taxes collected and the remaining $1.65 trillion will be borrowed from our grandchildren. If we divide everything by 100 million, the numbers begin to make more sense.

We have a family that is spending $38,200 per year. The family’s income is $21,700 per year. The family adds $16,500 in credit card debt every year in order to pay its bills. After a long and difficult debate among family members, keeping in mind that it was not going to be possible to borrow $16,500 every year forever, the parents and children agreed that a family tradition of buying one $3.5 Starbucks Pumpkin Spice Frappuccino at Halloween to share would be scrapped. So now the family will have to borrow only $16,496.50 per year.

Biggest budget cut in history folks..........

Market Perspectives via charting 1974 vs now

I put together a few charts of the S&P 500 from 1974 timeframe, now, and one over the entire timeframe.

I used a logarithmic chart, to show the relative gain over time. Basically 100 going to 200 is a clean double, while S&P 500 going from 1200 to 1300 isn't as dramatic.

I won't bother commenting much, other than, maybe this market will never collapse down...just up? Through currency valuation change?

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

Day late, Dollar lost

My week in charts from yesterday had me concerned, the overall pattern of steep rise with no significant setback had me on edge.

Then I spotted the result of todays action in graph form, seen at end of this post.

Then Gary of the Smart Money tracker expects a pullback and reload later.

I am now nervous. I'll dump a chunk of NON-CORE positions, but keep core positions on the open.

Of course, I expect tomorrow to be a disaster, hence the title "day late, dollar lost".

I am keeping AVL, but lightening up on SLW, SLV, GDX, GDXJ, etc. Keeping core position across miners.

I am a buyer of MGMXG tomorrow, a pink sheet traded company. It is a Canadian company and a provider of thermal energy, and through an acquisition branching out to hydro. This is a 5 to 20 year buy and hold. (Current price 1.16)

oh well, ...hopefully there is one more pump I can get as I dump. Good luck.

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

This Week in Charts

I must admit the markets are looking a tad bit overbought right here....but then again it seems to quite often and yet we go higher.

Who knows, may be a good time to take some profits...to the charts!

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

1,000th Blog Post

Holly heck! I have reached my 1,000 th blogpost in WebSurfinMurf.blogspot.com, 999 days after the first post August 14th, 2008. Seemed like I averaged more than 1 a day over that period...well I guess technically I did!

When I started this blog in 2008, it was in frustration that I could not communicate the serious financial situation the US and the world was facing. Instead of ranting like a raged lunatic to every person I met, I figured best to find a more constructive outlet.

And in August 14 2008, this blog was born with first post titled "Welcome to my new blog".

Even though I work in IT, I hadn't done any social media until that day. Also, being a computer guy, I am not the best at writing. This should be painfully obvious by reading my first 12 posts compared to more recent posts.

I have found this blog to provide many benefits, including

• A way to vent, keep my pontifications in person to a much lower volume
• Improved my writing skills
• Provided a way to "keep me honest". I see too many people in this realm of market pontifications and global economics who skew facts to fit their current view. This blog keeps an honest account of my thoughts.
• Useful for myself , like a diary, to reflect back and use for current view / analysis
• Learned additional technical skills, if only marginally, by exploring various web tools and widgets.
• I hope it has provided some insight to those who read it, to help them prepare for what is to come, if only in a small way.
• Kept me focused at the awaking of what we face back in 2006 and continues to unfold in what will be a decade long ordeal. (2006 to 2016?)

I am sure I can figure out quite a few more benefits. But I hope those who do read this blog find some value out of it, as I do.

I don't want to hit 2,000 posts, I really do want to cut down my posting to once a week, but I haven't yet settled my mind into the key markers I want to strictly observe.

I find it ironic that the market is higher than when I started this blog. I continue to be concerned over the world economics as I did back then. After 1,000 posts, my best post, most comprehensive to date of my view is "Why Natural Resource assets is better investment than US Bonds"

Thanks for Reading!

From WebSurfinMurf's Financial Blog

Inside Job, The Movie

The movie Inside Job presents a perspective on financial institutional involvement with crisis of 2008. (and by extension today).

From Wikipedia:

Ferguson has described the film as being about "the systemic corruption of the United States by the financial services industry and the consequences of that systemic corruption."[3] In five parts the film explores how changes in the policy environment and banking practices helped create the 2008 financial crisis. Inside Job was well received by film critics who praised its pacing, research and explanation of complex material.

First link is to movie trailer, second is copy of full movie on youtube. (there as of wednesday...that legal?)

I haven't watched this movie yet....Looking forward to it.

Dollar Breaking down, Gold Breaking up

The USD is breaking down Thursday night, but hasn't made new lows. I expect the USD to make new all time lows vs western currencies in the next few weeks.

The world will call for the final demise for the USD.....and it is possible, although not probable, that the USD enters into an all out crisis in the near term.

But my thoughts are we'll have a drummed up crisis, with lots of noise, but no real bite. For the world is interconnected to the USD too tightly still. When Gary of the Smart Money Tracker spots a near term bottom in USD, I am hitting the bids hard. Even if gold and resources continue to rise, I am OK with missing the last "10%" move.

I will always keep a solid core of gold miners straight into 2016, but I'll dump the non-core. For now, its steady as she goes, all in on natural resources as the USD tanks.

And hey, it is possible the USD does go into a serious crisis, and if it does, natural resources is well positioned to weather the storm.

Take a look at the gold chart to see new highs real time (click).

And the beating the USD is taking (click).

And no matter what, AVL is going higher in my opinion, to about 12 bucks a share. Good start on that today jumping 10% to 9.50.

Good luck out there.

Cool Blog Views

Blogger has released new options to view my blog.
Click on each, to see some cool tech at work!

http://websurfinmurf.blogspot.com/view/flipcard

http://websurfinmurf.blogspot.com/view/mosaic

http://websurfinmurf.blogspot.com/view/sidebar

http://websurfinmurf.blogspot.com/view/snapshot

http://websurfinmurf.blogspot.com/view/timeslide

US Long Term Year Bond Rates

The USD long term bond rates are keeping within the last 25 year range....barely.

Any breakout of this is the canary in the coal mine that it's time for the USD to experience significant devaluation.

Unfortunately, the Federal Reserve Bank is buying huge amounts of US bonds, altering the actual interest rate curve, so it is possible we have already crossed this historical line, and the USD is about to really go down.

For now, at face value, rates are under control, with manipulation.

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

All systems are go

Gold breaks to new highs, gold miners breaking out, avl looking great, all systems are go.

Every cent I can is deployed with almost no shorts to be found. SLW has been a big mover, as my favorite AVL.

Other stocks that jumped today are GSS, AUY, GDX, IAG, IVN. Others with only 2-3% gain are NAK, NXG, RGLD, IVN, HMY and ANO.

GLD, PSLV didn't do so bad either.

For now, the world looks great in resources, especially precious metals and miners.

Good luck, and although nothing has been fixed in the economy, for now, its up up up and away.

Percent gains have been very welcome the last few weeks. Hard to hang on for this upswing.

Trade idea I like is Uranium sector on Slope of Hope, they got slammed with Japan problems.

Uranium is here to stay with china building crazy number of reactors.

In particular, some decent risk play is DNN and CCJ.

And I agree AAPL stock owners should take heed and put stops in, click to read more.

CNBC video worth watching

Reaffirm that I believe the market will go to heck

In the last few months I have stopped posting about falling stocks, shorting, or the market is doomed. Recently, I have only focused about the long side of resources, and the stock AVL.

Let me be clear, the world financial markets are in great danger of an all out horrific decline, the likes that will make 2008 look like an opening act. I am a firm believer that in the next few years, the market and world economies will be shaken harder than ever before.

BUT, that is not to say this will start tomorrow, next month, but you can bet by end of 2012 we will be facing this financial crisis once again. I actually believe it may start as early as May. But at the end of such ridiculous rises in the market......in the face of reality being exact opposite....markets tend to soar to highs never thought possible. It could be that the high is in the past, just a couple of months back. But it also could be the next few weeks.

So for now, I am playing long, I am also adding stop losses all over the place, with a bit of room to maneuver. I suspect that most of the market is doing the same, which makes this truly an insane game of chicken. I really don't know when I will jump off this ridiculous ride back into cash. For part of this game is the fear the USD will implode next.....something I agree will happen, but it's too soon. 2013-2016 is my thinking.

So if you have some tidy profits, selling some right here is not crazy. Putting stop losses is a must as we enter the final round of financial parabolic blowoff chicken.

Why do I think this will happen? It's pretty simple. Resources are flying too high, causing too much political stress around the world. The free money printers will need to take a break to apease the critics. Then once we have a nice disaster, the critics will silence and the money printers will resume. The NEXT time the resource train will take off quicker and possibly steeper.

The problem with all this pontification, is I could be wrong (no matter how unlikely that may be!) . Maybe the USD is about to take an epic nose dive, then being in resources is a great place to be. So there is always that doubt, that pure cash is just different risk.

I wanted to set the record straight, what I said in 2008 STILL HOLDS today!

To fix the system, its pretty simple, and until we see the following, the system is broken.

1) Return to basic accounting standards in place from the 1940's until 2000.

2) Return to mark to market accounting in place from the 1940's until 2009.

3) Force companies that are insolvent....to go bankrupt! (US government get out of private companies)

4) US government debt machine come to a screeching halt. Lets try 500 billion debt per year instead of 1.6 trillion!

5) ENFORCE ALL EXISTING FINANCIAL LAWS....PUT PEOPLE IN JAIL FOR MASS FRAUD!

Until above happens, the bottom is not in. And my theory is, above won't happen until all other shortcuts and scams are tried....and fail. The moment of truth will be the US choosing collapse of us currency or do above. Until then, I do not have faith in my fellow man to do the right thing ahead of such a disaster.

Therefore, we will have a rocky road of meager attempts to appear respectable to the past 2 years of outright irresponsible actions by the government. This will result in wave after wave of market turmoil in the years to come.

I am thinking the moment of truth comes in 2013-2016 with the next president's term.

Think thats too long? Look at Japan, their stock market and economy has been flatlined for over 20 years...and counting. And that country had one of the highest savings rates in the world! Good luck to good old Americans living on borrowed debt to make this crisis last 20 years. I give it 8 starting from 2008.

This Week in Charts

To the charts!

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

Inflation, Deflation, What's going on?

I really hate people trying to categorize our global economic system state and USA's economic situation as buzz words like inflation and deflation.

Oversimplifying complex situations creates false impressions of the reality that faces all of us.

I started a series of posts to explore money, and inflation and deflation topics. If you haven't read it, you can do so by starting with the first post "what is money".

For this post, I WILL oversimplify and focus on what people do tend to notice, and that is rising costs to consumers. We have recently seen some decent spikes in commodities, especially some foods such as corn. Other obvious price rises is gold hitting all-time highs, and oil rising.

At the bottom is a video from Walmart CEO starting to see cost increase creep. Welcome aboard! I have been stating this since 2008 as a result of our poor economic and political decisions. Its pretty much at the stage of destiny, but I try to leave some hope.

Some other notable recent articles, from ZeroHedge.com

Goldman Sachs raises corn price forecast by 30%

Inflation expectations 2010-2011

Philly Federal Reserve president's speech "inflation may require aggressive policy action".

Brent Oil hits 119 a barrel

Wal-Mart US CEO To America: "keeping eye on Inflation"

Zeitgeist - Moving Forward

Again, grain of salt, the value I have in this type of stuff is makes you think, not saying I agree with all the conclusions or content.

Fed releases information....market yawns

I posted how the fed will release information about their secret discount window lending practices. That the market volatility could increase or just yawn.

It was a big yawn from the market as Federal Reserve released data is released on 25,000 pages.

One nice surprise to learn is the Federal Reserve (and by extension US government backed effort) bailed out a Libyan owned back back in 2009.

You can't make this stuff up.

Sign Silver and Gold may be peaking soon

Jim Cramer to me is pretty much on target to drive the masses off a cliff. I am amazed this guy gets so much air time.

So when Cramer backs buying physical silver and gold.....that can't be good.
I am still sticking with my silver and gold miners, but I'll be quick to lighten the load if I see something that shocks me.

I still think gold/silver have years more to go, but I'd like to avoid the full pain when the market pulls back for a break.