Apple Chart and the Market

I have tried to call a top in Apple stock before, that was over 100 dollars back.  But this time, the stock chart is presenting a nice, classic hockey stick.  Price rises like what Apple has seen the last two months are typically parabolic blow-offs before the price drop hits.   Today Apple did drop quite a bit, over 2.5% from day high to close.

If Apple is in fora  correction can the market rally?  Apple is not the end all for US stocks, but it is a market leader in tech.  It's stock is heavily weighted in the Nasdaq.

The overall S&P 500 seems to be having trouble pushing higher. The next week will be interesting.  For your pleasure, charts below.   My posting has been lax because my work has been very busy for me, for months.  Busiest I have been in over 5 years.  Since I work in software development, related to the financial industry, that usually indicates to me markets higher ahead.

So I have mixed feelings here, the charts vs personal experience.  Personal experience that I am seeing says much higher market ahead.  The long term trend line I watch may soon cross into bull/up territory.

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

This week in charts, market decline ahead?

I have been working since November 60+ hour weeks.  This is the main reason I have not been posting more.
I am not going to do my usual chart roundup, but instead redirect you to Gary of the smart money tracker.

I missed him telling dump miners last week.   I encourage you to read his post from Sunday on market warning.
Click here to read his post Dangerous Times Ahead.

The other reason why I am nervous I heard comments at work today that their 401k was improving.
Once the rank and file feel good about the market, probably a good time for a punch in the face by the market.

This week in charts

Another week has passed, time to look at the charts for what is the trend.

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

This week in charts

In spirit of the new year, posting charts with a longer historical view.
The charts don't scream anything really.   The most interesting is how low Fed 30 year bond rates have fallen without a market crash.
Overall, still bearish because of this signal (click).
To the charts!

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

This week in late chart

Been very busy with work, here is the chart update.
Obviously, a nice bounce this week so far.  Jury is out if this lasts.
I give it maybe through mid January before the wheels fall completely off.

There are many variables, the largest is Europe.  To the chart!

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

The US Market Charts in the BIG picture

Today, I have two grand market valuations to look at over the century.  One is S&P 500 in terms of it's valuation RELATIVE to gold valuation. (in essence, if we used gold as money)   The second is the S&P 500 since 1870 to today.
Regular readers know I do not believe gold is money.  But it does serve as a relative valuation to judge how fiat currencies are valued relative to non-fiat valuation.  I would rather have chart of the US market in relative terms to all commodities (averaged).  In absence of that, the gold chart will do.

The charts deliver one message to me.  In relative or non-relative terms, from a charting perspective, the markets are headed don to 700 range....AGAIN.  This is using historical trends projected into the future.  I DO NOT think this is a required outcome.  Man can change laws, and change "Relative valuations" but doing things such as breaking currencies.  Then the charts are meaningless.

To the charts!

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

This Week in Chart

The USD may start to resume it's climb, after a nice pull back for two weeks.
I think it all depends on USD move where the market goes from here.
A never-ending-decline of USD with never-end-rise in the market isn't possible, nor desirable.
So something will shift.

From a charting perspective, we are in our range created after the multi-year trend breakdown.
So for now, its watch and see.  I am still very nervous that the market breaks down from here.....but when am I not?   :)

To the chart

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

Time for market bloodbath

Well, that was quick, and we now have our answers.

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

This Week in Charts

As of week of September 11th, this market is in a down trend, that should last for a full year or more.
Expected top to bottom losses of 35% (or more).  I'll re-evaluate when S&P 500 hits 780 OR the long term indicator flips into bull mode.

This blog will be pretty freaking boring for months to come, until I can see some glimmer of hope for natural resources or the market.
Cash is better than putting it anywhere else.

To the chart that matters, the market range.

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

This week in charts - All hands on deck

Due to various reasons, I am not very well positioned to capture the market plunge that was experienced Friday and likely this week.
I am positioned to avoid the pain that should come to those long the market, as I posted Thursday night to GET OUT OF THE MARKET!
A market plunge below S&P 500 of 1,100 is very ominous, next stop is likely on the express train down to 2009 lows of 666.  For those that read this blog regularly, you will remember on market plunge day back on August 8th, I did not panic...well, now I am. :)

I give you this week in charts, and lets just say it may not be a very Merry Christmas this year.
Good luck, and Obama, prove me wrong and give the country some juice, even if it is BS, and lets kick the can yet again, in hopes tomorrow someone fixes this mess.......which of course, there is no Santa.....

Short call outs!
DXD - 19.61  - double inverse short, should go higher! HIGH risk
FAZ - 60.62    - Triple inverse short banks, should go higher! HIGHEST risk
NFLX - 213 - should go much...much...MUCH lower. (dropped from 235 on Thursday to 213 already)
                     - lost access to many movies, the bandwidth issue will get them eventually, raised prices, and
                     - my guess is many ordinary people bought this stock, so pro's will crush them
PCLN - 528 - good company model, hard to bet against....but I still think lower
DECK - 85.90 - eh, probably lower, really a coin toss, but its an old short I can't let go.
ODP - 2.29 - Shorted on 7/1 @ 4.24, probably going to zero...Office Depot.
DGP - 71.76 - DOUBLE Gold ETF - if you like gold, you'll love this ETF, with 2x daily moves than gold.
                      - Crazy high risk!

In first chart, I reference the long term trading indicator, read more here.
I STRONGLY reading latest news this week at Mish's blog, click here.

From Mish's blog, I can't believe this guy said this publicly. Geesh:
Deutsche Bank CEO says "It's Obvious Many Banks Will Not Survive if Forced to Value Sovereign Debt at Market Prices"

To the charts!

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

This Week in Charts

I said enough on Thursday's post titled "Market thoughts month to years ahead".

One thing I realized since then is the view is too USA centric. This time around the problems will come from Europe and other western countries. This will make the events and effects much different than 2008 since America won't be leader of problems.

And as such, the shape, form, and timeframe makes me very unprepared to make any good thoughts on when this starts. Tomorrow? Really who could know with such limited information.

Anyway, for this week, not panicking Monday was good, buying Rare earths was great. Selling my GLD, the jury is still out.

To the charts!

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

This Week in Charts

Day late dollar short. I am still very busy with work, but will try to keep up the chart thing.

Big changes recently. Congress agreed to not increase spending. They call it cuts. I call it BS. Granted, it may be a step in the right direction. But I suspect this agreement won't have teeth and washington will revert to it's old ways.

Time will tell.

The republicans want to stop spending NOT because it's wasteful. Far from it! The republicans have run up more government debt than democrats hands down until Obama came along.

They want to choke the economy - just enough - to do a nice pile on Obama next year.
While I do think cutting spending in military and other areas of waste. I fear, and expect the FIRST thing to get cut is the poorest of the poor, weakest of the weak programs.

That is very unfortunate, for thats probably the ONLY services the government should have aside from minimal defense spending!

Oh well, back to the charts. I don't like what I see, and I am getting nervous. I think I'll be hitting out of positions tomorrow, atleast lighten up. I am torn on Gold, maybe parabolic rally time.

Surprisingly, Bond rates are going down, not up. And I do expect the dollar to firm up, possibly for the next year! My friend John Chinnock has been saying that forever.....I think we may finally be there.

Good luck, to the charts!

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

This Week in Charts

I made these charts early today, but didn't have time to post them.
Today didn't produce a material change, so the view still is in effect.

Gold is the mantra, with the debt vote pending next week.
I wouldn't be surprised if the S&P 500 breaks upward and looks like a bullish run then collapses sometime in the next few weeks.

To the charts!

From July 25, 2011

From July 25, 2011

From July 25, 2011

This Week in Charts

This week in charts, a focus on the S&P 500, and some food for thought.

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

This Week in Charts

Finally, a market rebound. This week is options expiration week, so once again some games will be played. The market was extremely oversold, and a bounce was expected.

The question is, does the downturn resume immediately? Or is there some legs left in this rally?

I am playing it cautious, i got burned so many times trying to pick tops before, I want gifts.

First chart is S&P 500, and today we hit 10 EMA, but not yet 20 or 50. I think the 20 is in order (and so does happy john) before the decline resumes in earnest.

But who knows, the market could be so weak the market could waterfall decline.

Next chart is Gold, still no gift there, hoping gold hits bull trend to buy in.

Then we have DXD, double inverse short fund,....notice a change? the value is going up.

Throw in DECK and CMG for a couple of shorts to watch or join. To the charts!

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

This Week in Charts - Natural Resource Update

After this past weeks natural resource correction, I figured I'd check the sectors for status update.

Below are the charts. I think buying any precious metals this week is risky after such heavy losses.

So why am I buying? Because the media loved to report on how things fell, how gas will be cheaper this summer, etc. Also, some of the charts don't look too damaged yet.

Of course, I won't go full in, the losses could continue.

But I avoided most of the damage, so why not jump on in? To the charts!

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2

From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2 From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2