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Financial news I consider important, with my opinion, which is worth as much as you paid for it.
Please click HERE to read a synopsis of my view of the financial situation.

Friday, March 2, 2018

Market Direction Change

I been emailing friends on the market since Feb 2nd, the upshot is we likely formed a top for the next 3 months, and very possibly a year out.  Unfortunately the year out part isn't clear yet.

I subscribe to two services, https://chartfreak.com/, which focuses on individual stocks and https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/ , which covers macro trends of the market.

the screenshots below are from them, its a paid service, so I don't share the information except when I see extreme moments in time like we may be in now.

The ultimate confirmation will be when this indicator flips
http://websurfinmurf.blogspot.com/2015/10/long-term-investment-trading-signal.html
Food for thought on Market fall predictions using Fed Funds Rate
https://www.themaven.net/mishtalk/economics/chart-predicts-every-market-crash-in-history-ZQD5lS5qnEa6x0Yf0_UGWw


So lets recap!


Feb 2nd

Friends,
I subscribe to a market analyst that generated indicators of a down market for next 14 days, 30 days, and potentially for months.
Please see below the summary.

Unfortunately for me, I didn't check this earlier, I would have exited on 31st.

I'll keep SOME shares of most positions as a "reminder" of my exit position, and to watch in event this trend changes to re-establish.
Also for some precious metal miners I may keep a higher percent.

So while I am not panicking, I am taking serious this new sell signal after a parabolic run up.
Inline image 1

Feb 11th

Friends,

The same indicators indicating Jan 30th time to exit the market, is now showing a counter-rally starting Monday.
Their prediction is we fail around the previous high (just short, or somewhat higher), then resume downtrend.



So if you wanted in, or didnt get out, we had a healthy sell off that may provide some cover for getting into or out of the market.
Unless I email otherwise, assume sentiment is ultimate failure for a confirmed  bear market to begin.  Could be a couple of weeks or later this year before the down trend breaks below here.

As for me, I will keep it short-term trading, no big position long-term holds.

Good Luck!
March 1st
Market is looking weak, the counter-rally from the initial drop may be over.

One more signal to trip to confirm reversal to next leg lower


March 2nd

Confirmation today.

I won't bother updating anyone again until I see the Purchasing Power/30 day/14 day/ and 1-3 month turn green.
My main concern was the parabolic swing up we would see would burst, and it did late January.
The counter-rally was a great time to get out or take a chance of this thing turning around.

At this point, unless I see all green, I am assuming we saw a 1+ year top.
Good luck!

Monday, January 1, 2018

2018 New Year - Looking Behind and Ahead

I wanted to take a moment to post some thoughts.
Looking across the economic board, we are in for another banner year in 2018, there is nothing holding the market back, the sky is the limit!
Honestly, I can't post any reason why we dont just double from here.  And thats the issue, when a 'critic' can't show you why we can't retreat chances are, something is a foot.

There is one issue, and I posted this back in 2010, and that is interest rates.

Yes! boring old interest rates, who cares when we have so many places to invest!
The issue is the world monetary system is built upon a debt-system, and when rates go up, we can have issues.

Further, with the new tax cuts and technology advances, I expect more gaps in the poor vs wealthy in America.  the middle class has been beaten, kicked, and next routed.  Maybe with our current president the populous will accept the new reality over the next 3 years.  It could be as simple as having the 'right communicator' in charge to push the haves into the next level of wealth.

So lets take a look, first at my concerns, then the rest.  Really, its hard to see anything of real concern at all.

First up is long term stock indicator I have posted, the overall stock market is set to GREEN!
If the lines cross, time to be cautious.

How about interest rates?  when the lines cross, time to get concerned.





Next up is US Debt.  While Debt isn't NEARLY as bad as media an politicians make it to be, it can become an issue if the work perception turns on USA.  Notice the Bush crash ballooned the debt to 75% before Obama and Obama took 2 more years before the debt jumping slowed.

Clinton debt went down, all others up!

Since Debt really isnt a forefront issue, lets move to one that is, Energy.
If USA charges ahead to reduce dependence on Oil, this won't be as big a deal, but current administration may be hellbent on keeping America dependant on Oil.
And currently, even if the administration wants to get off Oil, we are far from it, so Oil price must be under control.

Bitcoin is all the rage, and I am playing with MGTI (bitcoin stock) and Marijuana stocks.
How is my old axe I grind since 2009, gold miners?  Really hate these things, but there seems to be some life ahead.

Then there is a few of the other sectors to look at.






So there ya have it.  Sky is the limit, all is great until it isn't.  I like Marijuana stocks and bitcoin stocks/  Keeping an eye on interest rates, food costs, Oil costs, USD value, and China's health.  If china breaks out of the trend line upwards, we should have a nice ride.

Wednesday, September 6, 2017

USD, Gold, Blockchain, Jobless claims, and the future

It has been almost a year since I last posted, and much has happened.
We have a new president!
The USD valuation rocketed high, and since January 2017 had an epic fall!
Bitcoin  rocketed from $500 a coin to $5,000.
US Stock market hit new highs!

Exec summary
I go into detail on charts/info below.
The upshot is US Stock markets are flat for the year relative to USD currency.
Gold is rising, Oil looks to have bottomed, Interest rates are pressing to break trend lines to up side.
GDX (gold miners) about positioned to to have fast rising trend change!
Jobless claims at a low since the 70's.
Looking ahead, investing in some cryptocurrency companies, (MGTI ?) Gold miners (GDX On the rise!)  Hedge against interest rate changes ahead, and using the hurricanes to explain a 'trigger' in a recession in 2017.  Reality is we had an expansion that latest quite a while, and the economy does shift at extremes.

Good luck!


Detail
I'll throw some charts on the blog with a sentence of potential trends......
All valuation are RELATIVE to the USD which is relative to other currencies.
So if the USD is cut by 10%, and the stock market went up 10%, to a person from a different country and their valuation, it would not move to their valuation.  Example:
Put in $10K of Euro into US stock market, and if USD to Euro became worth $9K, but if the market went in USD from $10K to $11k (USD) then to the Euro holder it would be worth 10,000 Euro, converted back to Euro same as it went in.
$11k USD * 90% conversion adjustment = 10,000 Euro

This "relative" value causes people inside that value system to mis-understand when things are going up or down, how that is relative to the world.
These charts needs to look at relative to outside USA.  To the charts!

USD went from 103 to almost 92, that is about a 10% drop according to "International Exchange rate"
Lets take a look at the Stock Market!


Over the same period the S&P 500 went up about 10%!
So the current market new highs are not a new high at all relative to outside USD currencies but flat for the year!

Lets take a look at other USD  'independent' valuations, like oil.  It has gone DOWN 10% for the year relative to USD.  Thats pretty good!


Onto Gold...how does it fare?
This chart shows gold valuation , blue line, left axis, vs USD valuation, orange line, right axis.
The USD valuation is 'broad set of currencies' and is not international exchange rate.  so a difference in the drop of 10%.
Gold went from 1140 to almost 1300, gain of  14%
USD 128.5 down to 118.5, a 7.8% drop.



GDX - Gold miners


Interest rates -

1 year and 10 year bond rates.  1 year is a trend change, interest rates are rising!  10 year is pushing on the down trend since the 80's, not good.



This next one has SOME relative valuation to it.  It is the 'debt' the USA carries relative to GDP.
The most meaningful part of this is that other countries do look at this as an indicator.
Japan's debt to GDP is 250%, so the USA chart I question its value.  I think it means more when people want to make it a perception point to focus on, as the republicans did under Clinton and Obama.

Economy charts

Initial Jobless claims, lowest since 70's!




Thursday, October 13, 2016

Gold Miners - What next?

As a refresher, I put quite a bit of emphasis on a tried and true long term stock purchasing guide that is described in post "Long Term Investment Trading signal".

Gold miners after CRUSHINGLY punished for years I believe hit a bottom in January 2016 for years to come.

Since then miners exploded up over 250% from low to high this year, and recently had a tear-your-face-off pullback.  Does that mean gold miners are dead? Hardly.

Lets take a look shall we?

Notice the weekly SMA is still on the upswing, and the downswing for GDX has held above the 50 weekly SMA.  This was a brutal, but normal pullback.

What stocks to consider? Depends on your risk-to-reward.
Lets assume GDX hits 35 by march...

GDX/GDXJ - lower risk, ETF across miners (major/minor)  Profit ~50%

Call options on GDX for far out, I purchased 20 GDX calls for March 2017 strike 23.
Risk: very high, options can go worthless.  but if GDX hits 35 by then, will be a 500% profit.

Another way to get higher % with somewhat less risk than stock options is buy stock in the sector that is cheap and therefore potential higher % returns
TGD - 0.48 a share, was $3 in 2013
NAK - 0.60 a share, was $12 in 2008 & 2011.
GSS - 0.78 a share, was $4.50 quite a bit between 2004-2011

some that have already run...maybe more
HMY in september 2015 was 0.82, now $3
AU in september 2015 was 6.60. now 13.70
AGI in september 2015 was 4.50, now 7.70
There are quite a few runners if you look.
My hope is this next push up, those that did not run up before will now.
Good luck

Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Market Charts - Food for thought

I have posted about long term trading indicator, using 20-50 Weekly Simple Moving Average.
If you haven't read about it, please do.  Charts below for trading ideas.
http://websurfinmurf.blogspot.com/2015/10/long-term-investment-trading-signal.html







Wednesday, May 11, 2016

Baby boomer dwarfing economics

This video is accurate on the economic distortion that is occurring for a wide variety of reasons.   The net effect is likely the aftershock will hit all post baby boomer generations.  
I do not characterize this is happening as some sort of baby boomer scheme to fraud everyone else as this video asserts.    Instead the end economic upheaval caused by exponential change caused by technology is the root of the issue. 
The baby boomers in position of influence are reacting to keep what they perceive as normalcy.   The net effect is this distortion, video gives good thought, but low on facts and high at demonizing.   Look past these spins.