We have a new president!
The USD valuation rocketed high, and since January 2017 had an epic fall!
Bitcoin rocketed from $500 a coin to $5,000.
US Stock market hit new highs!
I go into detail on charts/info below.
The upshot is US Stock markets are flat for the year relative to USD currency.
Gold is rising, Oil looks to have bottomed, Interest rates are pressing to break trend lines to up side.
GDX (gold miners) about positioned to to have fast rising trend change!
Jobless claims at a low since the 70's.
Looking ahead, investing in some cryptocurrency companies, (MGTI ?) Gold miners (GDX On the rise!) Hedge against interest rate changes ahead, and using the hurricanes to explain a 'trigger' in a recession in 2017. Reality is we had an expansion that latest quite a while, and the economy does shift at extremes.
I'll throw some charts on the blog with a sentence of potential trends......
All valuation are RELATIVE to the USD which is relative to other currencies.
So if the USD is cut by 10%, and the stock market went up 10%, to a person from a different country and their valuation, it would not move to their valuation. Example:
Put in $10K of Euro into US stock market, and if USD to Euro became worth $9K, but if the market went in USD from $10K to $11k (USD) then to the Euro holder it would be worth 10,000 Euro, converted back to Euro same as it went in.
$11k USD * 90% conversion adjustment = 10,000 Euro
This "relative" value causes people inside that value system to mis-understand when things are going up or down, how that is relative to the world.
These charts needs to look at relative to outside USA. To the charts!
USD went from 103 to almost 92, that is about a 10% drop according to "International Exchange rate"
Lets take a look at the Stock Market!
Over the same period the S&P 500 went up about 10%!
So the current market new highs are not a new high at all relative to outside USD currencies but flat for the year!
Lets take a look at other USD 'independent' valuations, like oil. It has gone DOWN 10% for the year relative to USD. Thats pretty good!
This chart shows gold valuation , blue line, left axis, vs USD valuation, orange line, right axis.
The USD valuation is 'broad set of currencies' and is not international exchange rate. so a difference in the drop of 10%.
Gold went from 1140 to almost 1300, gain of 14%
USD 128.5 down to 118.5, a 7.8% drop.
GDX - Gold miners
Interest rates -
1 year and 10 year bond rates. 1 year is a trend change, interest rates are rising! 10 year is pushing on the down trend since the 80's, not good.
This next one has SOME relative valuation to it. It is the 'debt' the USA carries relative to GDP.
The most meaningful part of this is that other countries do look at this as an indicator.
Japan's debt to GDP is 250%, so the USA chart I question its value. I think it means more when people want to make it a perception point to focus on, as the republicans did under Clinton and Obama.
Initial Jobless claims, lowest since 70's!