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Financial news I consider important, with my opinion, which is worth as much as you paid for it.
Please click HERE to read a synopsis of my view of the financial situation.

Wednesday, September 6, 2017

USD, Gold, Blockchain, Jobless claims, and the future

It has been almost a year since I last posted, and much has happened.
We have a new president!
The USD valuation rocketed high, and since January 2017 had an epic fall!
Bitcoin  rocketed from $500 a coin to $5,000.
US Stock market hit new highs!

Exec summary
I go into detail on charts/info below.
The upshot is US Stock markets are flat for the year relative to USD currency.
Gold is rising, Oil looks to have bottomed, Interest rates are pressing to break trend lines to up side.
GDX (gold miners) about positioned to to have fast rising trend change!
Jobless claims at a low since the 70's.
Looking ahead, investing in some cryptocurrency companies, (MGTI ?) Gold miners (GDX On the rise!)  Hedge against interest rate changes ahead, and using the hurricanes to explain a 'trigger' in a recession in 2017.  Reality is we had an expansion that latest quite a while, and the economy does shift at extremes.

Good luck!


Detail
I'll throw some charts on the blog with a sentence of potential trends......
All valuation are RELATIVE to the USD which is relative to other currencies.
So if the USD is cut by 10%, and the stock market went up 10%, to a person from a different country and their valuation, it would not move to their valuation.  Example:
Put in $10K of Euro into US stock market, and if USD to Euro became worth $9K, but if the market went in USD from $10K to $11k (USD) then to the Euro holder it would be worth 10,000 Euro, converted back to Euro same as it went in.
$11k USD * 90% conversion adjustment = 10,000 Euro

This "relative" value causes people inside that value system to mis-understand when things are going up or down, how that is relative to the world.
These charts needs to look at relative to outside USA.  To the charts!

USD went from 103 to almost 92, that is about a 10% drop according to "International Exchange rate"
Lets take a look at the Stock Market!


Over the same period the S&P 500 went up about 10%!
So the current market new highs are not a new high at all relative to outside USD currencies but flat for the year!

Lets take a look at other USD  'independent' valuations, like oil.  It has gone DOWN 10% for the year relative to USD.  Thats pretty good!


Onto Gold...how does it fare?
This chart shows gold valuation , blue line, left axis, vs USD valuation, orange line, right axis.
The USD valuation is 'broad set of currencies' and is not international exchange rate.  so a difference in the drop of 10%.
Gold went from 1140 to almost 1300, gain of  14%
USD 128.5 down to 118.5, a 7.8% drop.



GDX - Gold miners


Interest rates -

1 year and 10 year bond rates.  1 year is a trend change, interest rates are rising!  10 year is pushing on the down trend since the 80's, not good.



This next one has SOME relative valuation to it.  It is the 'debt' the USA carries relative to GDP.
The most meaningful part of this is that other countries do look at this as an indicator.
Japan's debt to GDP is 250%, so the USA chart I question its value.  I think it means more when people want to make it a perception point to focus on, as the republicans did under Clinton and Obama.

Economy charts

Initial Jobless claims, lowest since 70's!




Thursday, October 13, 2016

Gold Miners - What next?

As a refresher, I put quite a bit of emphasis on a tried and true long term stock purchasing guide that is described in post "Long Term Investment Trading signal".

Gold miners after CRUSHINGLY punished for years I believe hit a bottom in January 2016 for years to come.

Since then miners exploded up over 250% from low to high this year, and recently had a tear-your-face-off pullback.  Does that mean gold miners are dead? Hardly.

Lets take a look shall we?

Notice the weekly SMA is still on the upswing, and the downswing for GDX has held above the 50 weekly SMA.  This was a brutal, but normal pullback.

What stocks to consider? Depends on your risk-to-reward.
Lets assume GDX hits 35 by march...

GDX/GDXJ - lower risk, ETF across miners (major/minor)  Profit ~50%

Call options on GDX for far out, I purchased 20 GDX calls for March 2017 strike 23.
Risk: very high, options can go worthless.  but if GDX hits 35 by then, will be a 500% profit.

Another way to get higher % with somewhat less risk than stock options is buy stock in the sector that is cheap and therefore potential higher % returns
TGD - 0.48 a share, was $3 in 2013
NAK - 0.60 a share, was $12 in 2008 & 2011.
GSS - 0.78 a share, was $4.50 quite a bit between 2004-2011

some that have already run...maybe more
HMY in september 2015 was 0.82, now $3
AU in september 2015 was 6.60. now 13.70
AGI in september 2015 was 4.50, now 7.70
There are quite a few runners if you look.
My hope is this next push up, those that did not run up before will now.
Good luck

Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Market Charts - Food for thought

I have posted about long term trading indicator, using 20-50 Weekly Simple Moving Average.
If you haven't read about it, please do.  Charts below for trading ideas.
http://websurfinmurf.blogspot.com/2015/10/long-term-investment-trading-signal.html







Wednesday, May 11, 2016

Baby boomer dwarfing economics

This video is accurate on the economic distortion that is occurring for a wide variety of reasons.   The net effect is likely the aftershock will hit all post baby boomer generations.  
I do not characterize this is happening as some sort of baby boomer scheme to fraud everyone else as this video asserts.    Instead the end economic upheaval caused by exponential change caused by technology is the root of the issue. 
The baby boomers in position of influence are reacting to keep what they perceive as normalcy.   The net effect is this distortion, video gives good thought, but low on facts and high at demonizing.   Look past these spins.

Sunday, May 8, 2016

Panama Papers

The Panama Papers is the world's largest information leak, far greater than Snowden in terms of sheer information volume.   The information is from an offshore law firm that specializes in offshore companies to hide money from taxation from any country.   The people that use this law firm is politicians, entertainment stars, sports stars, successful business people, companies, pretty much anyone that has enough wealth to need their services.
To me again this is nothing new, pretty much anyone with thought on this topic new this type of service had to exist.
What is important is attitude.    The smaller people are getting bolder, Snowden, this person, and others are becoming more common.   Wikileaks is providing an avenue that smaller people take risk to expose illegal activity.    There is a convergence of information distribution and economic strain.   Both are caused by technology.
In my #marchoftherobots series I show a future of low employment opportunities, this is the cause in economic gap, not tax dodging.   Not that tax dodging helps the smaller people :).  I see this as part of the evolving breaking point of the global economic model based on debt.  Still, great read!   This is way better than fiction dramas on TV.

Saturday, May 7, 2016

Technology, not China cripple manufacturing jobd

I am sure people can find specific instances China through corruption has unfairly decimated a company of sector of us manufacturing.   But I do firmly agree the overall trend and driver has always been manufacturing.   China has only accelerated economic pressure to us manufacturing to lower production costs, resulting in job loss overall.   This video dies a great job of doing a drive by summary.  #marchoftherobots