Goldman Sachs has tremendous influence on every aspect of the world economy. Their executives become governors, United States Secretary of the Treasury, and hold many posts in various wold governments.
I have posted about Goldman before. An executive has just resigned and posted his thoughts. Worth a read.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/14/opinion/why-i-am-leaving-goldman-sachs.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all
Then, read the parody version, of Darth Vader resigning from the Empire.
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/why-i-am-leaving-the-empire%252c-by-darth-vader-201203145007/
Welcome new reader!
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| From WebSurfinMurf's Financial Blog |
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Friday, March 9, 2012
Gas Prices and US Dollar
The video below does a great job spoon feeding the rationale that gas prices are rising due to a weak dollar. I do agree with this principal partly. What the video misses is there is enough world demand to keep the prices high as the US consumption falls. That is my entire theme on why natural resources will continue to rise for the decade ahead.
With exception of missing the point above, the rest of it is spot on.
With exception of missing the point above, the rest of it is spot on.
Thursday, March 8, 2012
Jim Grant on Federal Reserve latest manipulation
The Federal Reserve announced yet another plan to manipulate the market, and in essence give certain companies money. There is no such thing as a free bailout. These cheating actions will eventually have repercussions.
Jim Grant gives a nice interview about his opinion on the market cheating going on.
Jim Grant gives a nice interview about his opinion on the market cheating going on.
Thursday, March 1, 2012
It's all about Oil
As I have posted before, I am a believer of peak oil. Whether the peak has past or will past soon is immaterial. In the scheme of 100+ years of oil use, we are about to hit the peak, and afterwards we will experience continued rising costs for energy.
Governments can and have been promoting green energy. But the adoption rate is slow, but hopefully will accelerate with technology efficiency advancements.
The growth for energy in India and China is staggering. The consumption monster drives all energy sources higher. China has done much with nuclear and coal to relieve pressure off oil.
So when resource costs are going higher, what can governments do? Why a stronger currency helps offset these pressures. Think of it this way, if the USD was worth 10x more than other currencies, oil to US Citizens would cost less than people pay in their countries. The irony is governments are publicly advocating cheapening of the currency to make them more competitive (and help pay down debt cheaper, but that part they don't announce). The act of lowering money's value is a tax on every single citizen, in higher expenses.
We may be seeing another round of deflation to start, to help kick resources down a few notches in cost. And of course, sometime between September and February of next year, another round of loose money will hit the world. But only after resource costs go lower.
To get an idea how expensive oil is, and remember, the US and Europe are experiencing weak economies, look at the graphs below. The second one is important, it helps make the costs of oil reletive in current dollars. By any historical standard, oil is expensive.
Governments can and have been promoting green energy. But the adoption rate is slow, but hopefully will accelerate with technology efficiency advancements.
The growth for energy in India and China is staggering. The consumption monster drives all energy sources higher. China has done much with nuclear and coal to relieve pressure off oil.
So when resource costs are going higher, what can governments do? Why a stronger currency helps offset these pressures. Think of it this way, if the USD was worth 10x more than other currencies, oil to US Citizens would cost less than people pay in their countries. The irony is governments are publicly advocating cheapening of the currency to make them more competitive (and help pay down debt cheaper, but that part they don't announce). The act of lowering money's value is a tax on every single citizen, in higher expenses.
We may be seeing another round of deflation to start, to help kick resources down a few notches in cost. And of course, sometime between September and February of next year, another round of loose money will hit the world. But only after resource costs go lower.
To get an idea how expensive oil is, and remember, the US and Europe are experiencing weak economies, look at the graphs below. The second one is important, it helps make the costs of oil reletive in current dollars. By any historical standard, oil is expensive.
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| From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2 |
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| From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2 |
Friday, February 17, 2012
Institutionalized Corruption
Corruption hurts no one, until it gets severe enough to hurt everyone.
Good video watches, thanks to my brother for links.
I actually think insider trading laws are ridiculous, and everyone should be able to trade on what they know.
But government officials should be prevented to buy any stock, large funds only.
For personal gain should not exceed the greater good, which is clearly not the case right now.
Good video watches, thanks to my brother for links.
I actually think insider trading laws are ridiculous, and everyone should be able to trade on what they know.
But government officials should be prevented to buy any stock, large funds only.
For personal gain should not exceed the greater good, which is clearly not the case right now.
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Apple Chart and the Market
I have tried to call a top in Apple stock before, that was over 100 dollars back. But this time, the stock chart is presenting a nice, classic hockey stick. Price rises like what Apple has seen the last two months are typically parabolic blow-offs before the price drop hits. Today Apple did drop quite a bit, over 2.5% from day high to close.
If Apple is in fora correction can the market rally? Apple is not the end all for US stocks, but it is a market leader in tech. It's stock is heavily weighted in the Nasdaq.
The overall S&P 500 seems to be having trouble pushing higher. The next week will be interesting. For your pleasure, charts below. My posting has been lax because my work has been very busy for me, for months. Busiest I have been in over 5 years. Since I work in software development, related to the financial industry, that usually indicates to me markets higher ahead.
So I have mixed feelings here, the charts vs personal experience. Personal experience that I am seeing says much higher market ahead. The long term trend line I watch may soon cross into bull/up territory.
If Apple is in fora correction can the market rally? Apple is not the end all for US stocks, but it is a market leader in tech. It's stock is heavily weighted in the Nasdaq.
The overall S&P 500 seems to be having trouble pushing higher. The next week will be interesting. For your pleasure, charts below. My posting has been lax because my work has been very busy for me, for months. Busiest I have been in over 5 years. Since I work in software development, related to the financial industry, that usually indicates to me markets higher ahead.
So I have mixed feelings here, the charts vs personal experience. Personal experience that I am seeing says much higher market ahead. The long term trend line I watch may soon cross into bull/up territory.
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| From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2 |
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| From WebSufinMurfs FinancialBlog2 |
Thursday, February 9, 2012
We are all fleas on an elephant
In our day to day, I forget sometimes how truly out of control life is for everyone. Sure, I think I have some control over my job, my home life, my play time. But really, I owe my entire life on some basic structures that dictate my entire living standard.
The largest one is cheap energy. For without it, I couldn't have a career in Computing software. The energy it takes to make one PC is amazing, my car, everything that is complex. Without cheap energy, these items just wouldn't exist. Not to mention my 99 cent burger at McDonalds. Every aspect of my life depends on this building block, cheap energy.
I have posted before about peak oil, and it is REAL issue. People can dismiss it, but those who look at the facts, that every production of a limited resource hits a bell curve. It's a mathematical reality, it can't be escaped. I was bouncing around on the web when I hit the wikipedia article on peak oil. I highly recommend reading (or skimming it).
I cannot for the life of me even understand what we face, and how we will cope. Think I am over-hyping? Read the quotes below. The greatest hope is if we can accelerate alternative fuels we can sit at the top of peak oil for years as new demand, and shrinking supply, is offset from reduced net demand. So it is possible we can avoid a severe economic calamity. This isn't a crazy far-fetched possibility. Peak oil was originally predicted to be in 1995, but has been pushed out by increasing efficiencies.
All the easy oil and gas in the world has pretty much been found. Now comes the harder work in finding and producing oil from more challenging environments and work areas.
— William J. Cummings, Exxon-Mobil company spokesman, December 2005
It is pretty clear that there is not much chance of finding any significant quantity of new cheap oil. Any new or unconventional oil is going to be expensive.
— Lord Ron Oxburgh, a former chairman of Shell, October 2008
In Feb 2010 the US Joint Forces Command issued the Joint Operating Environment 2010[114] warning US military commands "By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day."
"A severe energy crunch is inevitable without a massive expansion of production and refining capacity. While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India. At best, it would lead to periods of harsh economic adjustment. To what extent conservation measures, investments in alternative energy production, and efforts to expand petroleum production from tar sands and shale would mitigate such a period of adjustment is difficult to predict. One should not forget that the Great Depression spawned a number of totalitarian regimes that sought economic prosperity for their nations by ruthless conquest."
"Energy production and distribution infrastructure must see significant new investment if energy demand is to be satisfied at a cost compatible with economic growth and prosperity."
"The discovery rate for new petroleum and gas fields over the past two decades (with the possible exception of Brazil) provides little reason for optimism that future efforts will find major new fields."
The largest one is cheap energy. For without it, I couldn't have a career in Computing software. The energy it takes to make one PC is amazing, my car, everything that is complex. Without cheap energy, these items just wouldn't exist. Not to mention my 99 cent burger at McDonalds. Every aspect of my life depends on this building block, cheap energy.
I have posted before about peak oil, and it is REAL issue. People can dismiss it, but those who look at the facts, that every production of a limited resource hits a bell curve. It's a mathematical reality, it can't be escaped. I was bouncing around on the web when I hit the wikipedia article on peak oil. I highly recommend reading (or skimming it).
I cannot for the life of me even understand what we face, and how we will cope. Think I am over-hyping? Read the quotes below. The greatest hope is if we can accelerate alternative fuels we can sit at the top of peak oil for years as new demand, and shrinking supply, is offset from reduced net demand. So it is possible we can avoid a severe economic calamity. This isn't a crazy far-fetched possibility. Peak oil was originally predicted to be in 1995, but has been pushed out by increasing efficiencies.
All the easy oil and gas in the world has pretty much been found. Now comes the harder work in finding and producing oil from more challenging environments and work areas.
— William J. Cummings, Exxon-Mobil company spokesman, December 2005
It is pretty clear that there is not much chance of finding any significant quantity of new cheap oil. Any new or unconventional oil is going to be expensive.
— Lord Ron Oxburgh, a former chairman of Shell, October 2008
In Feb 2010 the US Joint Forces Command issued the Joint Operating Environment 2010[114] warning US military commands "By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day."
"A severe energy crunch is inevitable without a massive expansion of production and refining capacity. While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions, push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse, and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India. At best, it would lead to periods of harsh economic adjustment. To what extent conservation measures, investments in alternative energy production, and efforts to expand petroleum production from tar sands and shale would mitigate such a period of adjustment is difficult to predict. One should not forget that the Great Depression spawned a number of totalitarian regimes that sought economic prosperity for their nations by ruthless conquest."
"Energy production and distribution infrastructure must see significant new investment if energy demand is to be satisfied at a cost compatible with economic growth and prosperity."
"The discovery rate for new petroleum and gas fields over the past two decades (with the possible exception of Brazil) provides little reason for optimism that future efforts will find major new fields."
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