The MACRO market considerations

 I want to understand the macro environment in hopes that any short term investments eventually align with the macro view.  For example, if you purchased Apple at the iPhone announcement, although that day didn't yield epic Apple earnings, the macro view changed and eventually stocks align to this new reality.

So lets take a look at the MACRO environment.

1) When COVID hits, USA alone shed 20 million jobs, and a year later its about 19 million unemployed.  It is going to take 5 to 10 years to get back to employment levels in January 2020.  If you have a good analysis, not flippant opinion, to the contrary PLEASE post in the comments!

2) Due to the reality of #1, the entire US economy is trading off of free money, easy loans, near zero loans, and a falling US dollar.  Part of the free money was the suspension of the SLR rule that is set to expire in March 31st.     This is what rallied the market over the past year.  The question is if these factors change, would you expect the same market acceleration over the past year?

3) Interest rates have been seeing pressure, and odd things have been happening like the REPO market yielding negative interest rates.  

4) As posted in January 24th, the amount of leverage in the stock market is staggering, this is great to advance prices but if things turn it will caused sustained pressure on the downside. An example of a hedge fund failure due to leverage was announced.  This is potentially one of many leveraged accounts.

5) The leading FANG stocks are all off their highs, and have been in a flat-ish trading range for months.  the NASDAQ is materially off it's highs.  I don't think an overall market boom can happen with tech going lower.

6) Insiders are selling is at high levels. On aggregate level the current selling level is what is a normal peak in selling, and has been relatively sustained in 2021. 

There has been large selling by Bill Gates Foundation in Q4 2020,  selling 100% of their UBER stock, 100% of BXP Boston Properties, 100% of Ali Baba, 50% Goog and 50% of Googl, 50% of Amazon, 50% of AAPL, 50% of Liberty LILAC, 10.6% of Berkshire.

Warren Buffet has sold 117 Billion of Apple stock, 3 billion of GM, 58% reduction in Wells Fargo,  sold off last of his JP Morgan,   

Buffet was a buyer into medical ,insurance, and some consumer companies in Q4 2020. buying into Merck, AbbVie,  Kroger,  Marsh & McLennan,  Chevron,  and Verizon.

In my opinion the first 5 items is pause for concern, what the market position in end of January to today, there is no new news expected.  Everyone knew with Biden elected free money is coming.  We are waiting for new taxes and other drags on businesses that have shed 19 million workers.  Its simply on a maco level looking pessimistic.    Until I see NASDAQ hitting new highs, I am a skeptic of going long this market.