The Bull is back?

Stock Market

Friday was a POWERFUL reversal, it looks like it could be a short term low with the bull returning.

However, as per my new focus on charting, what the chart say?

The downtrend hasn't been broken yet, and the bull hasn't yet been fully killed either.
For the BEAR case, what I can say is, the uptrend from  March 23, 2020 til March 2nd 2021 has been breached.  This doesn't mean a bear market is here, but it does mean caution.  Avoid leverage in either direction.

In my opinion a market close above 3864 is bullish, and a close above 3892 even more so. A TRUE bull is on if we make new highs, set Feb 12th at ~3950 only  3 weeks ago.

Each step I get more bullish and a new high, there is zero disputing the bear will be dead.

But how do we know the bear has won? a Break BELOW 3690 on a market close is pretty bad, it will solidify a new lower low.  If we do, the target I have for a potential near term bottom is about 3250.

Bitcoin

I have to admit, bitcoin is looking quite good, excellent really.  It has NOT broken a major uptrend.  It isn't in full bull mode either.  A full bull is new highs, and bullish is staying above 53180 for a day.  I say for a day since Bitcoin has no close.  A bear for bitcoin is any sustained (not for a 15 minutes) breaking below 39000.  On the downside levels are 42K, 38K, 30K(ish) then 22j.

Overall there is really nothing to not love about bitcoin.

There are two risks I see for bitcoin, one an overall stock market decline.  We haven't yet seen bitcoin be able to buck a market decline.  And until we can witness this, my assumption is if the market declines so will bitcoin.

The second one is some sort of Federal Reserve Announcement issuing their own crypto currency.  In the scheme of life this isn't a big deal, as, US dollars is already electronic.  Shifting to a crypto dollar is spectacular for financial institutions to reduce costs.  But it isn't a substitution for a deflationary collectable. (bitcoin).

Bottom line is a hard day below 39k, I'd be pretty worried.  Until then , bitcoin will gain and lose  up to 25% is normal.

I don't want to minimize the risks here, but so far, I can't say it is a must sell.

Gold

Just stay away from Gold, it may have bottomed, but if the bull is back in the market, gold will get absolutely killed.  Care is warranted.  With that said, gold is right now at a major support level.  If this fails we are talking losing 15% before the next level.  If the market takes off I expect energy to go nuts, and that's bad for Gold profits.  Frankly, I am starting to really hate gold.

Bonds

I expect rates may continue to rise.  Owning bonds is a near term loser.....until its not.  At some point interest rates will hit something terrifying and the government will need to choose stocks or bonds to rescue but not both.  That could be a week or a year away. I own some bonds to learn with the pain.