Just yesterday I called out from previous posts, SPX 3892, and today into the close the S&P raced down below that, closing at 3890.
I added a new dashed green line, 3722, a close below that CONFIRMS we are in a new pattern, lower lows rather than higher lows. Again doesn't mean a market collapse, but makes a very strong case for a bear downturn. I think the market is a buy at 3242.
Here is a long view that I think will happen. There is two things to change this view, one is the FED announces a new program, or two economic data surprises materially to the upside. Target is net neutral or a little bit of a loss for 2021. It is possible we see a huge down, but with free money giving to people, I have a hard time believing we will tank that bad. The price action of interest rates will be key if the S&P 500 hits 3242 range.
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