On Thursday the 21st, Gold miners started a new down trend. A trend lasts 1-4 weeks, I suspect this trend maybe closer to the 4 weeks. As I stated in post Up Up and Away the bulls have won the market valuation war, successfully putting the market at the most over-valued market ever when looking at corporate valuations vs expected future returns.
Since the market momentum is NOT about fundamentals, I expect this to terminate between SPX 3100 and 3450. Meaning we either lose steam or make a new high. I suspect this gets popped once there is material second waves either in USA or elsewhere to bring a dose of reality back.
For the market plays, GDX (gold miners) i expect to under-perform in this euphoria rally. GDXJ may fair a little better as there are more silver mining in that ETF. Smaller miners I expect to do OK.
I moved into these stocks Thursday and Friday am. MJ, OGI, ACRGF, CGC, MRMD, HTBX, and TGODF. I maintain small positions in bitcoin miners HTBX, HVBTF, GBTC, BLOK, and RIOT.
I still have optimistic view in short term for miners SVM, EXK, IAG, KGC, AG, and potentially GOLD.
I posted History lesson, Great Depression then and now .The difference now is the FED and world banks are poised to end capitalism by directly printing money to buy market assets. Therefore it is impossible to play this market materially to the down side. Do I think we achieve the lows of March? Yes. Beyond that its pretty hard to tell with market interference.
Good luck!
No comments:
Post a Comment