The market is likely to hit a 50% retrace of losses Thursday April 9th. Friday the markets are closed.
The market I still think will hit S&P 500 value of 3,000 before going much lower, my target is S&P 500 30-40% lower from here. (As originally stated Jan 30th, ACT NOW Sell the market!, up to 50% from high, down to SPX 1700) In the short term, we maybe getting close to a high for a few months. I suspect we will enter into a period moving between 2850 and 2450 for a bit as good vs bad news comes out.
Getting a market return of 50% in about two weeks is INSANELY GOOD! You can't look at the high in February as a gauge, you can look at market return from recent lows to current value to judge the market return. For the day-traders and big money this is their returns, many fold over, by using options. The 'easy money' is to drive the market down a gain to S&P 500 2450-ish, then back up to 3,000 to get returns up and down using options.
If you want to risk the recent gains for 'getting all your losses back', I highly doubt this in the year ahead, if not much longer. I suggest you think back to March 23rd and what you would have been thankful for. What we just got back in value was your 'wish' , don't changed your wish! Consider lowering your risk, and gamble with a little less.
If/when S&P 500 crack 3,000, please consider taking more off the table. I'll be going heavily out if we hit that. As it is, I'll take a little more off today and start to unwind my long disposition started on March 22nd.
UPDATE: 1pm Eastern: I dumped many long positions, I am not short either.
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