Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Monday, August 30, 2010
However, quite a few bloggers wrote about Mr. Bernanke's comments, and basically they think the Federal Reserve is out of arrows. While I agree with these articles, I think that this Federal Reserve could be even more creative on ways to create money without work value. Time will tell if Mr. Bernanke is bluffing, will do same old tricks, or get even more creative.
Since only 7 of the federal reserve board members now thing more Quantitative Easing (basically raw printing of money) is bad, I don't think Ben is out of rope. Quite the contrary, bond rates are at a new recent low, this gives him MORE room to seal the fate of destroying the US financial system.
I am starting to think this huge ponzi scheme has 5 years before blowing up. Not because of John Chinnock's comments, but because of the bond rates. HUGE amounts of debt is being placed in 5, 10, and 30 year bonds. The government has taking vast sums of private debt, made it public debt, and put it in basically the worlds largest ticking time bomb.
For now, I'll continue to play with gold, silver, gold/silver miners, and a tiny amount of shorts.
Now to the charts, notice the SPX bounced up off of the trend line, rates jumped, gold is holding in strong.
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Slightly older video from early August.
Friday, August 27, 2010
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Sunday, August 22, 2010
Friday, August 20, 2010
From historical data, the probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was 77%, and usually takes place within the next forty days. The probability of a panic sellout was 41% and the probability of a major stock market crash was 24%. Though the Omen does not have a 100% success rate, every NYSE crash since 1985 has been preceded by a Hindenburg Omen. Of the previous 25 confirmed signals only two (8%) have failed to predict at least mild (2.0% to 4.9%) declines.
Because of the specific and seemingly random nature of the Hindenburg Omen criteria, the phenomenon may be simply a case of overfitting. That is, by backtesting through a large data set with many different variables, correlations can be found that don't really have predictive significance. The Omen is at best an imperfect technical indicator that is a work in progress.
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Monday, August 9, 2010
Sunday, August 8, 2010
Thursday, August 5, 2010
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
The function of money, as I previously discussed, has a basic issue. When work is done by a person A for Person B, Person B now has a debt. In effect Person B must provide the amount of work VALUE as person A to repay that debt.