I decided to go back, and look at the posts I did about COVID-19, and analyze what I projected vs what occurred, and then using that data update a view of what may happen and what could happen.
Fun stuff? Lets go!
On January 26th, 2020 I posted "Potential Pandemic Precautions" and I asserted 2.7 Million American may die. At that time I did not share the math I used to come up with that number. That was in error, as it wasn't believable. So I started to post the math, which I wonder if anyone who questioned my 26th post even read my math! :)
On March 5th 2020, I posted "Humans don't know exponentials COVID-19" I posted the math. The key is using the math at the time, I extrapolated the infection count and death counts based on what we knew then. Key items are 3.44% mortality rate, and USA death count projected by 3/19 to hit 44, and 11.K dead by 5/4, with 180K dead by 5/28.
On March 19th 2020 I posted "COVID-19 Updated statistics", the death count hit 218, causing me to revise the 11K death to cross before 4/24 and mortality rate to be 1.5%. I suspect the mortality rate was artificially low due to infected rose rapidly and death follows later. The deaths are FAST than 3/5 projections. I also stated clearly:
I also think the infection rate will slow down dramatically in three weeks, when USA 'stay at home' efforts help and large scale testing identifies the sick.
This comes into play after my next update.
On April 6th was my last update in "COVID-19 Update'. This post is a little under my 3 week projection to dramatically slow down infections and death. Lets see what we find:
I projected by April 6th about 1,750 dead in the USA and this update shows dead to be at 10,876!
The US infection was to be at 114,392, and instead we came in at 367,85. The mortality rate is at 2.961% .
I attribute this distortion to several things including accurate reporting and inadequate testing.
The projections showed dead at 195K by about 5/2/20, but we stand today at 195K, so what changed?
Well perhaps that actually taking precautions dramatically slowed down the death as forecasted on 3/19. Some may say that immunity kicked in. Lets take a look at the infection and death rate to spot check this.
USA has increased testing, and supposedly that is 'driving up numbers' unfairly. Meaning, we didnt test as much and now we are showing people having COVID we didnt before.
If this is true, then what I would expect is that the number of people reported infected would be high, and relative to that number a much lower mortality rate. (the dead is not rising as quickly as testing.)
Today we have 6,548,503 infected. using the mortality rate of 2.961%
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