When to buy back into Bitcoin

 On Thursday I wrote post Preparing for a GBTC punch .  Looking at the price of Bitcoin Sunday, I expect the punch to arrive Monday.  We shall see!

Last week I sold a little less than 60% of all my GBTC by Friday.  I did actually sell more into Friday's close, not liking the price action.  I also sold BLOK and some Bitcoin miners I repurchased Thursday.

So the next question is, is it over for bitcoin? The high is about 43K for 2021?

Hardly!  I expect this downswing to get plenty of public news.  Friends who know you had Bitcoin say something like "how are you doing?".   But fear not! I think there is more Bitcoin upside til January 28th.  Why then? In the stock market that day is a Bradley turn date which indicates +/- a few days should be the stock market top.  If the market does turn, unfortunately, all assets go down, including likely bitcoin and gold.

So right now we are looking for a bitcoin capitulation day this week, for the rally to resume.  I am thinking Bitcoin should make a high for the quarter around 50-60 k, before we re-enter a consolidation period over the months ahead before 100K at end of this year or early next year.

How can we figure out when is the right time? One was to help with a guess is stock charting.

My stock charting says these are the Bitcoin buy levels : 33K,  26.5K, then 21.5K.

I really have no idea how far this bitcoin correction will go in the week ahead.  I say week since I think by next week the rally will resume in earnest ahead of the 28th.

My gut says 33K will be the low area and we will resume back to new highs.  I believe 26.5k is probably the lowest it will go before new highs, but theoretically 21.5K is possible.   If Bitcoin hit 21.5K, I would feel the urge to sell my other stock positions and just buy all bitcoin.

For GBTC, unfortunately, what we will see is a LOWER price than bitcoin.  If there is a run, Bitcoin may hit 33K and GBTC maybe $29 a share.  The reason is GBTC isn't a peg to bitcoin, but can swing higher or lower depending on supply/demand.

I am looking for a price of GBTC to hit 33 for me to start purchasing, with expectation it could hit 21-25 range.  So I can't go all in at 33, and see if it can get down to 25.  Key is to go in slow, and go out slow, always buying on a down and selling on a material up.  A good trade is good, it doesn't have to be a buy at the low and a sell at the top.

Bitcoin to me is destined to 100K in the year ahead.  So in some ways, all buys are good.  But holding a position seeing the price cut 30-50% is pretty hard to hold.  And new news can come out to change my view that Bitcoin will not hit 100K.  An example is if Biden puts radical tax laws or regulation in to stifle Crypto currencies.

Good luck!