I trust random crackhead homeless people in downtown Trenton more than I trust Goldman Sachs.
Usually whatever Goldman Sachs says, the opposite is the truth.
So today's analysis is confusing to me from Goldman. Their prediction if QE2 is initiated, the market target may still be S&P 500 at 725-800.
A general summary, that I saw on a forum post, of what the economic positives vs negatives I thought was very funny and accurate:
Case for the market falling
- Lloyds dropping profits by 50%
- Banks downgrading each other
- Ireland, Greece, Spain, Portugal, Latvia...
- Global retail dropping off a cliff
- Intel cutting expectations
- Widespread fraudulent foreclosures
- Currency wars with the BRICs
- Trade wars starting
- HFT Flash Crashes garnering more attention (ie obvious corruption)
- Gold prices garnering more attention (ie obvious devaluation/inflation)
- Virtually no change (barring the Fed injection of $1.7 trillion) in the masses of worthless CDS, MBS, and bank balance sheets since 2008 when they were all insolvent
Case for Market Rising
- Fed contemplating QE2
- Widespread political corruption
- Refusal to enforce the Rule of Law
Goldman Sachs release