Market Counter Rally over?

 Today the stock market is running a test.  Will the S&P 500 move higher or show signs that the counter rally is already over.  There are quite a few trend lines I have drawn, but the one I am watching is the ~45 degree green line in bottom right.   Posted on March 11th time to go long.  The bottom was on March 13th and that uptrend is being challenged.

From my previous post I do expect the counter rally to end within next few business days.  If you are unsure of this disposition, a break BELOW this green line on an EOD close should give you pause about remaining a hold.

I'll be looking to re-short today in prep for mid-April low.  That can be a new low for the year or not, and another base for a counter rally. THAT counter rally maybe more forceful.
For "buy and holds" see this post.

Bull and Bear Roller Coaster

I posted on March 11th at 5pm time to go long, indicating time to cover shorts the 12th and go long.  The bottom was March 13th.  Not too bad on the timing!

So now we stay long another decade and reap the rewards? Unfortunately, no.  The Trump administration is determined to break the economy, so by the time he leaves office we can be on an upswing.   Just kidding, he isn't leaving office in 2029.

Back to the markets!  In the next 7 days we will see the next top, 2-3 weeks after the bottom as mentioned on the 11th.   So in the week ahead, I will be selling my longs around 5900-6000 S&P 500. (SPX)  I expect "chop" for a bit, and I'll start easing into short.  This time around there is too much crazy to go hard core short into the next downturn.  I do NOT think the next downturn breaks the low on the 13th, and we will bottom between 4/7-4/14.  We will have a bull return topping around first two weeks of May.  THAT next bull will be followed by a spectacular failure below the 13th.    

That is the one I'll bet hardcore short. 

Some readers don't like up/down short term trading conversation.

Decent longs through this period are:

RGLD - why? True diversification outside of USA assets.  Its a gold miner in England.  You get the protection of a stable country (for now) and gold mining upside.  Gold has been on a tear, and I expect it to be the big winner of political instability.

INDA - ETF India. Why? Great diversification outside of USA assets.  This India ETF has great dividends, it is the worlds largest democracy, has zero demographic challenges compared to the west, plenty of internal growth prospects, and a tech-savvy country.  When America moves from old IT to AI driven IT, India driven workforce will remain relevant for transition and maintenance. 

GBTC - Bitcoin - This one is by far the riskiest.  I do not think Bitcoin will withstand the selloff in mid-April.  Its fine to purchase now, but consider lowering exposure in mid-April.  Over the year ahead I do think Bitcoin hits 400K, just it will have a challenging ride. Has potential of Trump pump and dump to help Musk and insiders at anytime, gapping up 100% or more overnight.  They will use "not tax payer money" through gimmicks, but it is taking from USA citizens (boomers) to pay off  younger.

PLTR- Why? Trump administration is poised to make a political play with a BIG contract to show "savings" from government waste.  Its a defense contractor with the magic of AI!  It also has the benefit of paying off all the military insiders buying the stock for their loyalty. ($75 on March 12th, now $96)  If this stock can close about $100 two days in a row, it should go much higher.

I will make a post of comprehensive list of good long term holds.  The theme will be highest tech , outside USA assets, and this administrations quick fix pumps.

Jittery Bull

Based on market action, I am questioning the market made a local bottom. Further money managers are not nearly as concerned about the market as the public. Lastly, I have a difficult time imaging what Powell can say that is truely bullish. whatever the action is today, Nvidia CEO is talking tomorrow. We need the market to close higher this week vs last week to maintain any bull stance. I will lighten my longs today.

America ending it’s supremacy

 Great summary understanding how America is the most influential power of the world.   How our dominance has benefited from this, and now how America is pursuing making life harder for Americans for generations.

Time to go long

I closed out most of my shorts, and its now time to go long.   I expect a good run up for 2-12 weeks before topping.   Good luck.

What causes inflation?

 Very good video by professor Keen outlining how government debt doesn’t cause inflation, the private sector does.   The two components that can cause inflation is energy (oil) and income increases (wages or government checks to people).

With this understanding, we can clearly see government issuing free money from covid sending to people to spend caused prices to rise.   Issuing new bonds did not.

Between energy demands with AI and potential for Trump sending money to people, inflation is in the cards.

Well worth the watch.

https://youtu.be/CwCjgKmE0nE?si=RuDwsinzrXz2N90j

Who benefits from a depression?

 https://youtu.be/lDvYj6nlwI8?si=icMknV3YonaQjbw_

World is contracting because America selfish turn and AI future advantage

America is increasingly acting in its own interest, changing rules to favor itself while the rest of the world suffers. Russia and China bear the brunt of this impact, with China's troubles largely stemming from the free world withdrawing manufacturing operations and a decline in American consumer purchases.

Combined with the current US administration's efforts to cut government spending, we are on the brink of experiencing significant deflation—the likes of which haven't been seen since 1913—driven by an unprecedentedly strong dollar ahead. After reaching this peak, the dollar is expected to gradually lose value over time, as the world moves away from using it as a standard currency due to the hardships caused by overreliance.

In this environment, global wealth may be left grappling with how best to deploy capital for survival in the changing landscape. Meanwhile, as global challenges to traditional currencies mount, gold continues to reach new highs. In my view, the only assured area of value is the future of AI and robotics, as they represent a sector of guaranteed growth. Gold and Bitcoin, however, depend on a future influx of cash to drive asset values higher. Bitcoin, in particular, stands the best chance of retaining value, as autonomous AI-driven money-making systems built on Bitcoin could operate independently of global government constraints, preserving its status as a valuable asset for trade.

China debt is now hitting 1 trillion a month, see below

https://youtu.be/efRgjYcELko?si=PS2HeZTNOSlHMYsW

Going Short the Market

President Trump is aggressively challenging the status quo on multiple fronts. Whether it's bypassing the constitutional law that only Congress can appropriate funds, sidestepping security clearance protocols by granting access to figures like Musk without proper congressional approval, or making controversial claims about displacing entire ethnic groups in regions like Gaza, his actions are undeniably radical.

Having worked in IT for decades, I know that transformative change often brings immediate challenges—even when it promises long-term benefits. So, even if you support Trump's unconventional approach and favor consolidating power in the executive branch (much like authoritarian leaders such as Putin or Xi Jinping), expect that the road to prosperity will not be smooth.

I'm positioning myself accordingly by loading up on shorts, particularly in sectors I expect to suffer the most from increased tariffs and market instability. My focus is on industries like automobile manufacturing, small businesses, and banking, which I believe will be hit hardest without a safety net from Trump.

On the other hand, if a substantial downturn occurs in the AI market, I’ll be quick to go long on AI stocks. I’ve already invested in Palantir, as they are strategically positioned to serve the U.S. military's AI needs. I'm also bullish on Bitcoin, anticipating  Trump is planning to buy Bitcoin’s through policies involving taxpayer dollars. This will cause Bitcoin to surge, and his insiders (and his companies) will be cashing out—an early sign of crony capitalism in action. With that in mind, I plan to research Trump’s preferred allies and invest in their stocks as the trend unfolds.

Good luck!

 

How Democracy Dies

The current presidential use of executive orders to impose tariffs isn’t simply a matter of economic policy or even breaking trade agreements—it’s a stark reminder of the difference between democracies and dictatorships.

In a true democracy, trust is built on the bedrock of honoring agreements. Congress and government bodies craft laws through debate, compromise, and checks and balances. These agreements are not arbitrary; they are the lifeblood of a system that empowers citizens and distributes power so that no one individual or group can dominate. When a unilaterally overriding these agreements, it isn’t just adjusting policy—it’s eroding the mutual trust that makes democratic governance possible.

In contrast, dictatorships thrive on the concentration of power. In such regimes, a single ruler—or a small cabal—imposes decisions without consultation or accountability. In these systems, dissent is crushed and citizens are forced to echo the leader’s words, stifling open debate and independent thought.

What made America great was precisely its commitment to democratic ideals: the freedom to discuss, disagree, and shape laws collectively. To “make America great again” means refining our democratic process, not undermining it by bypassing Congress and centralizing power in one individual’s hands.

When executive orders replace laws made by our elected representatives, we aren’t just changing tariff rates—we’re setting a dangerous precedent that erodes democratic process and paves the way toward authoritarianism.  The strength of a nation lies in its ability to allow robust debate among its democratic representatives, respect established agreements, and share power. That is the essence of democracy