Breaking the dollar

Last few posts have been focused on the current administration getting ready to break the dollar.

This video discusses how the Fed will be "absorbed" into the Fed.
Can't stress enough diversify into international and assets.

USA Debt Train accelerates

 

The Big Beautiful Bill is positioned to break the promise of lowering USA debt machine.  Surprise!
The Treasury must roll over 7 trillion in debt AND add to that whatever deficit the new bill brings, I expect additional 2 trillion dollars.

What should happen is the USA bond prices rise, and President Trump will blame the Fed for not lowering rates.  What is missing is the Fed does NOT control treasury rates, the willingness of the world to by Treasuries sets the rates.   The Fed COULD just print money, buy US treasuries and lower rates.  Since 2008 the Fed has done this using "Quantitative easing".

I expect however a new twist, and that is to change the laws around USA banks on amount of US Treasuries they can own and even mandate they purchase more treasuries. If this comes to pass the potential Treasury crisis in 2025 will be kicked.   The next one in the years ahead will be when USA banks cannot buy more treasuries due to fiscal constraints, and the world cannot buy treasuries.  As rates rise, bank treasury holdings will decline materially and cannot be sold without taking a material loss.

The Fed can then buy those treasuries as a "Swap" for cash, but at some point this will become a problem for the world politically.  At that point, we have finally reached the end of the USA debt train line.

So I do think we have years for this to run through, but in the mean time we should see Gold, Bitcoin, and other assets with limited quantiles accelerate.   Silver is taking off like a rocket, and is positioned to do a 4x in short order.  Bitcoin IMO should exceed $1M a coin by 2028.  Buying international assets can help maintain value through the rocky roads ahead.

For a more normal POV of the debt train, see this video.

US Dollar Red Line

Below is a US Dollar chart from 2008 to today.  The red uptrend line, when broken, will be an indicator to the world President Trump is successfully 'revaluing' the USD.  Once broken we may see the market finally pull back, and with risk off push the dollar back up.

However, at some point, we could see the USD depreciation pick up, but I suspect that will be next year. 

If or when the lowest green line is penetrated, it will be panic time for USA, for all time lows will be achieved.  I would expect imports to materially rise in price.

See next chart about the stock market.

The US stock market relative to the world hit an all time high on Jan 21s.  Although the S&P 500 is only 2.5% below all time highs inside the USA, outside the USA the market is a full 10% off all time highs.

The green line represents the SPY adjusted for USD value.  This is how the USD will be devalued, in a manner of which people inside the USA think they haven't lost savings.  When infact, USD devaluation is removing their asset values.

For example, if the USD drops 20% more from all time highs, even if the SPY is at todays level, the US assets would be a full 30% from all time highs.

Please see https://websurfinmurf.blogspot.com/2025/04/american-assets-declining-ahead.html

Global Financial System

A good video explaining the global financial system and challenges.

Up before down?

I have to say, I am completely underwhelmed by any downside action.  I sold majority of index shorts, but do have shorts on 'weak' companies.  And perhaps the issue here, maybe the market leaders are pulling the index up while weak companies go down.

My puts on individual companies are doing fine, and I'll let that ride. I am long gold, GBTC, and some nuclear companies (SMR).
If we break above last Fridays high, then we will likely go up to retest the all time highs.
That puts us into July-August for any material weakness.

The backdrop of lower USD, higher interest rates, and some international bond issues still exist.  If other countries, like Japan, have bond issues, that HELPS American bonds.  So perhaps as the world has increasing pressure on their debt, it will kick the can for USA for a bit.

I still like international as a long term investment and I am looking to add.

I'll take the long weekend and rethink how to deploy.

Enjoy the ride!

Recessions, US Dollar, and Interest rates

This post covers some indicators of US recessions, that typically negatively affect stock market valuation, US dollar valuation, interest rates, and implicitly real estate.  

For details on my concerns see American Assets declining ahead.

Fed Funds and Recessions

 

The chart above shows with the red lines when USA had a recession.  The blue line is when the Fed Funds rate.  Notice each time before a recession the Fed Funds Rate moves higher.

This is yet another indicator of a recession approaching.  I do think AI/Robotics will be the sector to purchase in next upswing.  While a recession isn't guaranteed, as we see from raising rates in 1995, it has a pretty good track record.

US Dollar Valuations

Below is US Dollar valuation as per DXY.  If the USD breaks below 96, we will have broken an up trend in USD since 2010.  The next levels of support is 78 and 70.  A break below 70 is an unknown target.  DXY is not a complete picture, as its about half Euro and other currencies, not including Asia.  Currencies are valued against other assets such as other currencies, gold, bitcoin, or other assets.  So even though DXY is weaking, its not a full picture, but does indicate vs major currencies like the Euro its weakening.

Holding above uptrend 2011 line will show USD is maintaining value relative to 2010 to now.
I think at minimum USD will lose 20 of value from it's high in 2022.

10 year US bond Yields

10 year treasury is linked to US mortgage rates, which in turn affects real estate prices.
The US interest rates bottomed in 2020, and marked a breakout of the 38 year downtrend since 1982.
A break above 5.25% indicates we are likely to see much higher rates in the years ahead.

US Stock Market Destination

 

US Stocks

The chart above is not meant to be literal, but those are the levels for the S & P 500 may find some strength.  A break below 480 will yield a new low of TBD level.  I would not be surprised if we S&P 500 go from high of 6100 down by 50% cut to 3000.  Sound impossible? The market would be valued  at October 2019 level, less than 5 years ago.   That is not too far fetched for a correction.

US Bonds

Today the US Treasury market for 10 year bonds took a beating.  From April 4th to now interest rates have moved from 3.8% to 4.6%!  If you own US bonds, your portfolio took a beating.

Real Estate

Mortgage rates are typically based on 10 year treasury rate plus a spread (risk premium).  If US 10 year bonds yields continue to rise, mortgage rates will too.  That will apply pressure on real-state costs.

I can't stress enough to consider hedging assets outside the USA.

Read more at American Assets Declining Ahead

After market adjusts, I think core AI & robotics will be the next leaders, replacing older tech giant leaders.  However legacy stocks will remain suppressed.  Key is capital preservation and deployment.

USA Credit Downgraded

 

Moody's was last credit agency to downgrade USA credit, first time in 100 years we are not AAA rated. 
The current administration wants to devalue the USD, so I would expect President Trump to be happy we are enabling his vision.  Careful what you wish for!

Posted on April 7th a short term bottom, and that proved correct.
Started looking April 23rd for "next push" to make an extended high and we got it March 11th.

We will see next week if Friday was a gift.  We should make a new low over the months ahead.  I am actually a little optimistic beyond that low for a mega rally unlike humanity has ever seen.  The advancements of AI should create an explosion of discoveries and productivity in shortest period humanity has ever experienced.  I will be watching for a bottom around Q4, with some chop into 2026 before we gain traction.  The next rally will likely be very bifurcated, as sectors who benefit from AI will not be universal.

I am interested in when the USD will be stabilize into a "new world order" valuation.

Waiting for a gift

I am wishing for a gift, a market rally into Friday's close, and a gift will be over-extending past S&P 500 5,900.  A perfect gift will be touching S&P 500 at 6,000 into Friday's close.  If my wishes can come true by EOD Friday, I will over-extend myself into shorts into the close.

The push is here!!

Trump administration announces a China trade deal! 

If this is a 'done deal' and 'a big win' for USA, we will hear the details ASAP!  However, if we don't, then this is the push I was waiting for.  

I am assuming THIS is Waiting for the Push I posted on May 2nd.

So I expect a top in the week or at max first week in June for the next leg down.

We will go higher and I am completely wrong if the deal details show a MATERIAL amazing turn around for America.

For now, enjoy the longs, and look for the short.

What if America gets more than it wants?

This administrations goals to achieve a 'more balanced' budget includes US dollar valuation changes.

Trump administration aims to "reengineer the dollar to be depreciated" to boost U.S. exports and manufacturing (Stanford GSB, Insights). Former economic advisor Judy Shelton noted, "If the dollar's strong, it makes it very difficult for our exports to compete in foreign markets" (Fox Business).

"the dollar must depreciate to allow for U.S. reindustrialization" (El Pais, April 7, 2025) and that President Trump "wants to ensure that the US dollar can trade at a weaker value compared with other currencies while not undermining the centrality of the currency" (Al Jazeera, March 13, 2025).

The President does understand that Americans will pay materially more for imported good, as indicated in this statement its not just a small cost increase to US citizens.  After all, 2 vs 30 is being able to afford 90% less than today.

"Well, maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, you know. And maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally."  YouTube

What we are aiming for America to not have a financial privilege of being world reserve currency.  Being the reserve currency everyone else 'games' the system to their advantage putting America at a net disadvantage when it comes to debt.   The word privilege indicates we get goods cheaper due to this position at the cost of a future currency debt.    No one knows in 10 years if the debt will matter or not as we advance society and tools like AI, but we are assuming it is an issue and forcing dealing with it now.

If America succeeds at devaluing the dollar, and dethroning itself as the world reserve currency, be careful what you wish for, as its a one-way trip.  This is why everyone should consider diversifying some assets outside of USA.

A great video explaining some of the potential challenges.  This concern drives my thinking of international investment as part of a diversification strategy.

Global Investment Tracker

My 2025–2028 investment bias is laid out in “American assets declining ahead” If you don’t share my POV, feel free to skip my posts.

Below is a concise stock screener with focus on global ETF's, currency related investments, select countries and U.S. tech names.  Click the “CHATGPT” link to pull up any ETF and ask questions.

Red-highlighted columns flag areas of heightened risk following the U.S. tariff scare on April 7. Bright-green items are where I’ll deploy new capital, timing purchases around the expected summer downturn (July/August) based on dividend yields, April 7 resilience, and international growth potential.

Always seek a professional investment advisor. For educational purposes only.
Good International Investments seem to be DWX, SHLD, MOO, and in next leg down XAIX , ROBO.  See below Analysis of how much was lost on Tariff Scare and the upside YTD.

Direct access to the live document, with short-term screener: [click here]

Waiting for the push

The SPY is at 5560, the target I called back on Monday April 7th, when the market gapped down and found a local bottom.   So does this mean today is the exact top? Potentially.  But what makes me think not is there has not yet been a 'big news' event to push and extend beyond an organic top.

We may have the FED do an emergency rate cut, or some sort of Trump announcement.  When that occurs THAT is a "sell on good news" event.  I will be reloading my shorts then.

The market can float around here through May, but ideal turn is in the next 1-2 weeks.  SPY should NOT break 600 on a weekly close.  If it does, I do have to question the POV I currently have. I think the more realistic high will be SPY 575-585 range. (SPY is S&P  500 ETF)

Enjoy the market counter rally, I am looking for opportunities for the next leg down into July-August.

This is all SHORT TERM conversation, on LONG TERM front, US market is going lower. For Long Term, looking for SPY 370-450 bottom.  as we get closer, happy to tighten the range.

If we move to 370, it will bring us back to Jan 2020 levels.  Currently I consider that THE lowest target, however, USA is changing the rules, and the target can change.

Next Push…

 I expect some sort of positive announcement in the next 7 business days, to goose the market higher.  One maybe an emerge rate drop.  I am NOT short the market since April 7th.  However on the positive news I will look to reshort.  

Bitcoin should rally, Gold may pullback, and markets moving up to the highs April 9th.

News that may cause a longer rally is China political change, Russia war change, or Trump dropping tariff strategy.

Liberation Day Lasting effects

I been following global economics at a distance since 2006, and I didn't understand the USA framework with Most Favored Nation trading status.  I am honored that as an American we setup the free trade system that we are now dismantling.  I do think USA made mistakes letting China and Russia.  USA was too optimistic if we let them in they will change, and it cost us the USA middle class.

Well the pendulum is swinging hard when America was great again circa the late 1920's.

A really good video to explain what the world must deal with now, and how utter paralyzing it is to global trade.  After watching this I can't see how a Great Depression 2 can't happen.  I encourage you to watch and help me understand why my POV is misguided.  Thanks in advance!

I am adding Long term as this is a political change not seen since the 1940's, and will have long term material change for USA finances and the world.

Next Leg Down

Jerome Powell just dared to refuse a rate cut—leaving Trump no workaround to get what he wants. That leaves Trump with two choices: replace Powell or order Secretary of US Treasury Scott Bessent, to implement new financial innovation to project rate cuts. Either way won’t spark growth—global markets set U.S. borrowing costs, not Washington. Undermining Fed independence would erode confidence, spike yields, weaken the dollar, and likely trigger the deepest bear market since 1929. The real lever isn’t finance games—it’s providing true competitive value that the world wants.

I am still holding to sideways to a little up through April 28th.

I do recommend watching the video and reading post: "American Assets Declining Ahead".

Update: Analysis from former Fed Reserve employee, https://youtu.be/9NAVHjvN9HQ?si=6ChAqq69aypbiKBs

American assets declining ahead

Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, has been vocal about the major challenges facing the U.S. economy. On *Meet the Press* (April 13), he echoed a concern I share: the current global order—monetary, trade, and geopolitical—is breaking down, much like it did in the 1930s.

His closing advice—*“work together and negotiate, don’t dictate”*—is a successful path forward for USA. If U.S. leadership adopts this mindset, I’ll become more optimistic. Until then, I’m preparing for the outcome Dalio warns of.

We could soon face a rare and dangerous combination: a falling U.S. dollar, rising bond yields, and a declining stock market. That scenario would erode the wealth of Americans heavily invested in domestic assets and could trigger a modern Great Depression.  We have weeks, not years left before things get moving.

This is why I’ve been advocating for global diversification. Consider assets non-USA stable country fund EFAV, or individual country ETF's like INDA.  Alternative assets like Gold Miners and Bitcoin may  hold or rise in value during the storm.  Many 401(k) plans already include international funds—take a closer look.

Take action Talk to your financial advisor from a *global perspective* about how truly diversified your portfolio is—and whether it’s built to weather what’s coming.

Future posts will label "Short Term" vs "Long Term" (year plus) investment commentary.  Both are linked on left of this blog for easy filtering.

Topped already?

In 7 days, the markets have moved like never before.  Unfortunately the announcements by Trump don't change the underlying issue.  Trump is leading ending the global free trade system implemented over 75 years.  And he has not indicated that he will end his crusade.

What he has done is realized taking on all countries hard-core simultaneously is a risk the world markets recognize as a generational risk, hence global asset sell off.  USA is now focused on China.

There is no change to USA stance, to threaten and bully the world to change the order of things.  In such an approach the world is FREE to react negatively.

Quick throw back to my post on March 25th:

So now we stay long another decade and reap the rewards? Unfortunately, no.  The Trump administration is determined to break the economy, so by the time he leaves office we can be on an upswing.   Just kidding, he isn't leaving office in 2029.

Back to the markets!  In the next 7 days we will see the next top, 2-3 weeks after the bottom as mentioned on the 11th.   So in the week ahead, I will be selling my longs around 5900-6000 S&P 500.

Well the top was the 25th, with a pop up on the 2nd close to the top, and it fell apart from there.

On April 7th @ 6:41 am posted:

If today's low is around 4,800, it's quite possible the market will bounce back to 5,500, about 15% higher. In my view, if you don’t believe tariff wars will drive the stock market higher in 2025, that’s a good level to consider reducing risk.

On 4/7 the S&P hit a low in the 4,800's and on 4/9 a high of 5,500.

So yesterday turns out to be the ideal time to sell for the next leg down.  

This is faster than I imagined, and I am unfortunately long.

We can wiggle for a bit, and hopefully go back to SPX 5,550 before the next leg down.  I am leaning towards this outcome into late April for next top.  However, as we seen things can move much faster than I expect.  So the top may have already been hit and we are going to see another S&P 500 correction of 10-15% sooner.

I may sell my longs without warning to shield myself from the damage.  I am NOT in any leveraged funds, calls, and very few puts currently.

Good luck

Potential Buys

Please seek a financial advisor for any investment activity.

 If you haven't already PLEASE READ Potential Short Term bottom before reading this.  There is no purchasing in this market without a market bottom.  Please seek a financial advisor for any investment activity.

These are stocks that I am looking at gains in the next year.

PLTR: Defense spender that has AI technology.  It should open as a BUY today any place between the open and as low as 65.  I will buy hard core more it closes in on 65.

NOTE: Palantir is extremely expensive on a price-to-earnings (P/E) basis. It is trading at 152x

INDA: India, there is quite a bit of support if INDA hits 47 dollar range.  I like India as alternate USD currency value store and about 5% dividend.

BTC: Bitcoin.  There is quite a bit of support if it hits 69K-60K.   I expect Trump will give it a boost at some point to generate a positive financial story and a potential for world to turn to as alternate value store.  Target is 400k

Gold: The fear play has now occurred, I expect gold could fall from 3100/oz down to 2,800-2,700 oz in the months ahead.  I do expect it will continue to rise over the year ahead.

Closing my SHORTS, they could be a place to buy for a counter rally (I won't)

STLA: Mission accomplished, started shorting in the 20's, should open below 9. closing puts.  Will re-open long-term puts if it counter rally's hard.  I expect a counter rally to as high as 15.  I may buy calls if cheap enough.

CVNA: This stock IMO will go much lower.  I will close it out simply due to the speed of recent decline.  My puts are SO far lower, I need to profit on time premium.

ORCL: I will close my position out, it has hit hard core resistance zone.  It has gone from almost 200 down to 123 today. There is VERY hard support around 120.   It is a re-short later this year.

QCOM: The fall has been beyond staggering from 230 to premarket of 123, and its VERY hard support.  Closing out the stock, and will re-short ONLY if it gets back to 150.

A potential short term bottom

 

Please seek a financial advisor for any investment activity.

The stock market's peak in February was 6,147, and a 20% decline would bring it down to 4,917, which we could see today. There is solid support in the S&P 500 around the 4,800-4,600 range. A sharp drop of 25% would put it at 4,600, but it's hard to envision a market falling that much—down 25% in under two months.

However, let's look at this from a time perspective rather than focusing on percentages. If the market were to return to its December 2023 levels in April 2025, that would be a 25% drop, back to 4,600. Losing gains from the past 15 months doesn't seem far-fetched, considering the disruption of 75 years of free trade.

There is significant market support between 4,800 and 3,900, so the market will likely bottom and rebound. While I’m confident that after another positive rally, the market will face another failure, if you're considering selling, in my opinion, today isn’t the right time, as the market is likely to counter-rally.

If today's low is around 4,800, it's quite possible the market will bounce back to 5,500, about 15% higher. In my view, if you don’t believe tariff wars will drive the stock market higher in 2025, that’s a good level to consider reducing risk.

I plan to close out some puts today or tomorrow if there's any sign of real strength.

Good luck!

Monday

 The S&P 500 hit 4840 as I write this.  A close below 4700 is very concerning to me.   I am hoping the market closes above 4700 and finds the near term bottom I am looking for into Tuesday.

A close below 4700 and I am concerned of a 2008 or worse collapse.  Bitcoin which has been solid is falling over the weekend.

Like I said in a previous post, it took 75 years to build the global trade system, and everyone should expect negative impact at minimum in the short term.

Good luck.

Target Hit! now what?

 Target has been hit! It doesn't mean the exact bottom was today at 10:50 am.
We may get one more push down for an extreme low.

Either way, market should recover soon.  My favs are PLTR, Bitcoin, Gold, and anything that Trump promotes.    I already started to buy "a little" PLTR.

If there is a swoosh I'll be loading up.  I have sells in to exit some puts.

A break of S&P 500 below 5,000 to me is a buy.

UPDATE: 4/4 ~ 2:12 pm.  I have a hard time believing we go below 4,800 for this run down.  TBD next week.

Remember, all of this goes lower later this year, this is SHORT TERM purchasing on my part.

SPX 5100 ish is the target

This is a quick down swing!

Only good news is we are a stones throw from S & P 500 losing 10% in the stock market since close Wednesday.  And that has been my target for this near term low.

I think the panic will continue, and we may get a low as early as Tuesday at S & P 500 reaching 5100.  The more likely path is whip-saw action over the next 4 weeks terminating in 5100 range.

For those long, the next upswing after May will be THE LAST CALL to get the heck out of this market.  I expect a 40-60% route of the market by Q1 2026.  That will be the low.  However, I don't think most stocks will recover for a decade except the new industries will soar like never seen before.  I will post the ETF's I think are good.

Exceptions to this routing is the 'Trump put' on PLTR or any of the CEO's getting Trump's favor.  There maybe enough insider buying on a pullback to minimize the damage in those companies.  I suspect the post low will be Trump announcing "new contracts" to surge these stocks.

I dumped all my double Gold and silver ETF's as these assets will be sold as margin calls are issued.

Bitcoin can crater to 60K, I am still a hold for 400K.

I will, without posting, close out my shorts at any time, simply because it was so fast.  My favorite short, STLA has cratered.   I have a target, but I may punk-out sooner.  Other ones just getting started down is Oracle and QCOM.

Good luck, on the high post May (August?)  I will do my final warning post, after that, there is nothing I can post that helps.  My 401k is 100% short term fixed assets.

Counter Argument

 Yesterday I posted Sell.  Today I am thinking of any counter arguments to that position.    The USA market with tech maybe the world leader in the next few years.   If USA corporations can turn AI enabled capabilities into products, including robots, then even is Americans are suffering, the world will likely still buy US stocks.

Further if the world does not want to buy US treasuries, the next best thing to do with dollars is buy US corporate stocks, natural resources, or US real estate.  Basically move from USA paper money to assets.

While I still think stocks move lower, there maybe a path to the next low as an enduring, multi-year low in US stocks.   This is different than asserting US citizens will do better.  The result will be rich vs poor continues to accelerate.

So while I am still pessimistic, I will be looking to buy and hold future centric ETFs.   I’ll do a post soon in what those are.

Sell

Sell.  

OK to own US treasuries 5 year or less duration for next year or ETF of India INDA. Decent other holds are GLD, GDX, and potentially Bitcoin .  I do expect gold and bitcoin to sell off,  margins get called over the month.  But I do think over the year should not as bad as equities.

We are witnessing 75 years of US building a global economy being taken down.   I am not saying USA will do bad, but I am saying the transition wont be fun for the markets.

I do expect a near term bottom 10% lower from close Wednesday, then another counter rally, then lower again.  Highs for the year are in the past.

Good luck

Uncharted Road

 This next few days I expect some extreme market movements.   If the market close any week above spx 5800, I will rethink my bearish stance.

Until then I am looking for a rocket ride higher as a gift, a gift to re-enter my shorts.  Its not often I can say this, bit I am eager to see the market charts Sunday.

Good luck

Market Counter Rally over?

 Today the stock market is running a test.  Will the S&P 500 move higher or show signs that the counter rally is already over.  There are quite a few trend lines I have drawn, but the one I am watching is the ~45 degree green line in bottom right.   Posted on March 11th time to go long.  The bottom was on March 13th and that uptrend is being challenged.

From my previous post I do expect the counter rally to end within next few business days.  If you are unsure of this disposition, a break BELOW this green line on an EOD close should give you pause about remaining a hold.

I'll be looking to re-short today in prep for mid-April low.  That can be a new low for the year or not, and another base for a counter rally. THAT counter rally maybe more forceful.
For "buy and holds" see this post.

Bull and Bear Roller Coaster

I posted on March 11th at 5pm time to go long, indicating time to cover shorts the 12th and go long.  The bottom was March 13th.  Not too bad on the timing!

So now we stay long another decade and reap the rewards? Unfortunately, no.  The Trump administration is determined to break the economy, so by the time he leaves office we can be on an upswing.   Just kidding, he isn't leaving office in 2029.

Back to the markets!  In the next 7 days we will see the next top, 2-3 weeks after the bottom as mentioned on the 11th.   So in the week ahead, I will be selling my longs around 5900-6000 S&P 500. (SPX)  I expect "chop" for a bit, and I'll start easing into short.  This time around there is too much crazy to go hard core short into the next downturn.  I do NOT think the next downturn breaks the low on the 13th, and we will bottom between 4/7-4/14.  We will have a bull return topping around first two weeks of May.  THAT next bull will be followed by a spectacular failure below the 13th.    

That is the one I'll bet hardcore short. 

Some readers don't like up/down short term trading conversation.

Decent longs through this period are:

RGLD - why? True diversification outside of USA assets.  Its a gold miner in England.  You get the protection of a stable country (for now) and gold mining upside.  Gold has been on a tear, and I expect it to be the big winner of political instability.

INDA - ETF India. Why? Great diversification outside of USA assets.  This India ETF has great dividends, it is the worlds largest democracy, has zero demographic challenges compared to the west, plenty of internal growth prospects, and a tech-savvy country.  When America moves from old IT to AI driven IT, India driven workforce will remain relevant for transition and maintenance. 

GBTC - Bitcoin - This one is by far the riskiest.  I do not think Bitcoin will withstand the selloff in mid-April.  Its fine to purchase now, but consider lowering exposure in mid-April.  Over the year ahead I do think Bitcoin hits 400K, just it will have a challenging ride. Has potential of Trump pump and dump to help Musk and insiders at anytime, gapping up 100% or more overnight.  They will use "not tax payer money" through gimmicks, but it is taking from USA citizens (boomers) to pay off  younger.

PLTR- Why? Trump administration is poised to make a political play with a BIG contract to show "savings" from government waste.  Its a defense contractor with the magic of AI!  It also has the benefit of paying off all the military insiders buying the stock for their loyalty. ($75 on March 12th, now $96)  If this stock can close about $100 two days in a row, it should go much higher.

I will make a post of comprehensive list of good long term holds.  The theme will be highest tech , outside USA assets, and this administrations quick fix pumps.

Jittery Bull

Based on market action, I am questioning the market made a local bottom. Further money managers are not nearly as concerned about the market as the public. Lastly, I have a difficult time imaging what Powell can say that is truely bullish. whatever the action is today, Nvidia CEO is talking tomorrow. We need the market to close higher this week vs last week to maintain any bull stance. I will lighten my longs today.

America ending it’s supremacy

 Great summary understanding how America is the most influential power of the world.   How our dominance has benefited from this, and now how America is pursuing making life harder for Americans for generations.

Time to go long

I closed out most of my shorts, and its now time to go long.   I expect a good run up for 2-12 weeks before topping.   Good luck.

What causes inflation?

 Very good video by professor Keen outlining how government debt doesn’t cause inflation, the private sector does.   The two components that can cause inflation is energy (oil) and income increases (wages or government checks to people).

With this understanding, we can clearly see government issuing free money from covid sending to people to spend caused prices to rise.   Issuing new bonds did not.

Between energy demands with AI and potential for Trump sending money to people, inflation is in the cards.

Well worth the watch.

https://youtu.be/CwCjgKmE0nE?si=RuDwsinzrXz2N90j

Who benefits from a depression?

 https://youtu.be/lDvYj6nlwI8?si=icMknV3YonaQjbw_

World is contracting because America selfish turn and AI future advantage

America is increasingly acting in its own interest, changing rules to favor itself while the rest of the world suffers. Russia and China bear the brunt of this impact, with China's troubles largely stemming from the free world withdrawing manufacturing operations and a decline in American consumer purchases.

Combined with the current US administration's efforts to cut government spending, we are on the brink of experiencing significant deflation—the likes of which haven't been seen since 1913—driven by an unprecedentedly strong dollar ahead. After reaching this peak, the dollar is expected to gradually lose value over time, as the world moves away from using it as a standard currency due to the hardships caused by overreliance.

In this environment, global wealth may be left grappling with how best to deploy capital for survival in the changing landscape. Meanwhile, as global challenges to traditional currencies mount, gold continues to reach new highs. In my view, the only assured area of value is the future of AI and robotics, as they represent a sector of guaranteed growth. Gold and Bitcoin, however, depend on a future influx of cash to drive asset values higher. Bitcoin, in particular, stands the best chance of retaining value, as autonomous AI-driven money-making systems built on Bitcoin could operate independently of global government constraints, preserving its status as a valuable asset for trade.

China debt is now hitting 1 trillion a month, see below

https://youtu.be/efRgjYcELko?si=PS2HeZTNOSlHMYsW

Going Short the Market

President Trump is aggressively challenging the status quo on multiple fronts. Whether it's bypassing the constitutional law that only Congress can appropriate funds, sidestepping security clearance protocols by granting access to figures like Musk without proper congressional approval, or making controversial claims about displacing entire ethnic groups in regions like Gaza, his actions are undeniably radical.

Having worked in IT for decades, I know that transformative change often brings immediate challenges—even when it promises long-term benefits. So, even if you support Trump's unconventional approach and favor consolidating power in the executive branch (much like authoritarian leaders such as Putin or Xi Jinping), expect that the road to prosperity will not be smooth.

I'm positioning myself accordingly by loading up on shorts, particularly in sectors I expect to suffer the most from increased tariffs and market instability. My focus is on industries like automobile manufacturing, small businesses, and banking, which I believe will be hit hardest without a safety net from Trump.

On the other hand, if a substantial downturn occurs in the AI market, I’ll be quick to go long on AI stocks. I’ve already invested in Palantir, as they are strategically positioned to serve the U.S. military's AI needs. I'm also bullish on Bitcoin, anticipating  Trump is planning to buy Bitcoin’s through policies involving taxpayer dollars. This will cause Bitcoin to surge, and his insiders (and his companies) will be cashing out—an early sign of crony capitalism in action. With that in mind, I plan to research Trump’s preferred allies and invest in their stocks as the trend unfolds.

Good luck!

 

How Democracy Dies

The current presidential use of executive orders to impose tariffs isn’t simply a matter of economic policy or even breaking trade agreements—it’s a stark reminder of the difference between democracies and dictatorships.

In a true democracy, trust is built on the bedrock of honoring agreements. Congress and government bodies craft laws through debate, compromise, and checks and balances. These agreements are not arbitrary; they are the lifeblood of a system that empowers citizens and distributes power so that no one individual or group can dominate. When a unilaterally overriding these agreements, it isn’t just adjusting policy—it’s eroding the mutual trust that makes democratic governance possible.

In contrast, dictatorships thrive on the concentration of power. In such regimes, a single ruler—or a small cabal—imposes decisions without consultation or accountability. In these systems, dissent is crushed and citizens are forced to echo the leader’s words, stifling open debate and independent thought.

What made America great was precisely its commitment to democratic ideals: the freedom to discuss, disagree, and shape laws collectively. To “make America great again” means refining our democratic process, not undermining it by bypassing Congress and centralizing power in one individual’s hands.

When executive orders replace laws made by our elected representatives, we aren’t just changing tariff rates—we’re setting a dangerous precedent that erodes democratic process and paves the way toward authoritarianism.  The strength of a nation lies in its ability to allow robust debate among its democratic representatives, respect established agreements, and share power. That is the essence of democracy