Market Musings

This week has the potential to be very important for Gold Miners.
First, there is the recent whip-saw for gold, I expect some follow through one way or the other this week.
Gold Miner stocks report earnings this week, so the news should affect ETF's GDX & GDXJ in some manner.

Then there is the matter of the overall market.  Is this time truely different? Market about ready for a rapid rise? Don't dismiss it! If gobal currencies start to fail we could see an epic market tear.

However if this time is not different, reversion to the mean is long overdue.

I think this time its different is possible, but not plausible if you use history as a guide.  But then again, we are in a time unlike any in history.

I happened to have sold 1/2 of what Gary told me in Quest and got full in near the GDX bottom last week with cheap options, so this week I am very interested to see what happens, as I am out there, on my own.

Good Luck!

Blockchain will bring on most sweeping changes yet

Bitcoin has been given wide press, but the secret sauce is the blockchain.
The blockchain is what allows distributed ownership, enabling a reliable system that does not require centralized authority.

This key building block for bitcoin can be leveraged for a wide variety of things, including voting.

Ran across this article titled The coming digital anarchy, read if you want to take the red pill.

Market goes up, up, up

Every time I talk to a hands off investor who has good savings, I hear commentary that the market will continue higher.
Until my post in 2010, I believed that laws and the 'system' would revert to the mean.  That somehow fundamentals would curb asset inflation eventually.

Since my post in 2010 titled  View Change, I am open to the idea that this here, right now, is a market bottom never to be seen again, S&P 500 will hit 4000, then 20,000, on the way to a million.
All that has to happen is stop enforcing financial laws, give away money no strings attached, and influence the market through manipulation.  As I said in 2010, if the S&P 500 hits 2000, USA citizens will hit a new low for USA living standards.  With 41% of working age Americans not working, 15% of Americans living in poverty, inflation for 2014 target double the central bank target, forecast at 4.1%,   As a comparison how US citizens are faring, in 12 months 22 billion dollars in homes bought by Chinese citizens in CASH in just California! 

We have seen this to varying degrees since 2008, starting off with suspending honest accounting in place since the great depression back in 2009.    Without honest accounting, I am still unsure how any company under fictitious accounting can ever be severely punished by the market.

Please keep in mind, if the market doubles from here in the next year or two, all is not well.
We will see an acceleration of side effects, consequences, there will be ripples into bond markets, commodities, currency destabilization with smaller countries, and worst of all big money starting to lose fear.

Losing fear of consequences of actions, companies no longer required to work as hard to get that carrot.  Recklessness, corruption, and acceleration of lawlessness.  Money is a powerful motivator for change, to drive people to be productive, but it can drive down real work if too easy as it would become if the market drives higher and faster.

I honestly have no clue what is next market wise, today maybe the best time ever to buy into the market, I really mean that.  Or we are about to get a long over-due correction back to reality.  When the orange line crosses below the blue line, you must listen and get out of the market, for we could have one hell of a correction.

For now, party on dude, S&P 500 to 4,000 and beyond!

The dislocation ahead

Its no secret that I believe that society is at risk of a dislocation.  An economic global shock could change the world forever, nothing like 2008.
I ran across a video yet again from Mish's wine country fund raiser.

This is a good casual talk between Chris and Mish, and I agree longer term the world ends up in a good place.  Between where we stand now and the passage through crisis is really the risk we will all face.

Money 4.0

Money 1.0 was simply barter, I give you eggs, you give me some hay.
Money 2.0 was I give you a precious metal like gold coins for hay.  This is really 1.0, however unlike eggs, gold coins are easily stored over time, can be sized easily to different sizes, and can have a similar value across cultures.  Gold coins to me is same as barter, but its a widely acceptable physical value to barter with.
Money 3.0 - Fiat currencies by central authority created out of thin air has value.
Money 4.0 - Fiat currencies by shared authority created out of thin air has value.  To me what we need is in my post, Ideal Form of Money, Empower the People

I ran across this video, similar sentiment but a different angle.  His accent is heavy but does a good job to explain why the current system is unsustainable.

Quest

I just joined Gary Savage's Quest challenge, to turn 1K into 100K in the next year or so.
I'll be happy to land with simply my money back :)  But hey, some people buy lottery tickets, I'd rather try Quest.

For more info, pay for Gary Savage's https://smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/ for his daily blog commentary, and Quest.  Pretty sure quest will close forever in next day or so.

Twitter

I have been posting much less in the past year.  My work takes up significantly more time, as well as ever increasing family time.

I recently started using app called feedly.  It will allow me to tweet articles I find interesting easily from my RSS feeds.
I will start tweeting any article that interests me, not just macro economics.
So in lieu of this blog, if you want to follow the items I find of interest, I highly recommend subscribing to my twitter.

There are three ways to subscribe to my posts, first you need a twitter account.
Follow directions by clicking here.
Once you have a twitter account, subscribe one of three ways.
WARNING: I will likely do a bunch of posts in a row with long lulls, you may find this annoying if updated by SMS.
Twitter Application or Twitter Web page
1) Login to twitter (follow signup directions if new user)

2) Go to http://Twitter.com/WebSurfinMurf

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Politics and Economics

Politics ENABLES good economic growth.
Economic construct growth is harnessing the people to be productive, that productivity is reflected in economic constructs such as stocks, interest rates, and other forms.

Today on Audible, you can buy for 6 bucks an audible book to learn about the start of this Great Nation.  I haven't listened to this book, but the basics of this nation are the greatest foundation of government in human history in my opinion.  Where we are today is struggling to find this nations path moving forward.

I am a believer of understand the basics is a must to construct a better framework.  Understanding why this nation was constructed the way it was needs to understand two things.

First, the politics of people of all economic classes, belief systems, and personality types.  These often clash violently, and the system needs a way to allow all conflicts to be resolved in a manner that does not result in violent turmoil.  I believe the founding fathers did an outstanding job, one we have drifted from as the rule of law is not respected.  If we don't follow the law, the construct no longer functions.

Second is the tools available to the people at the time.  When solving a problem, people solve with what is possible at that time period.  The best solution in 1000 BC vs 1000 AD, vs 1776 and 2014 are not the same.  I do believe that 1776 the solution was the best possible outcome, but in 2014 the new technologies, global society, and many other factors are putting strain on a system designed in 1776.

So when reading / listening to this book understand the first and think of how today the second could enable a better framework.

If you do not belong to Audible, see this post on how to get two free books, and buy this book on sale for 6 bucks.
http://www.audible.com/pd/History/Empire-of-Liberty-Audiobook/B003155WUO

NOTE: I added to previous post a must read book:
Outliers: The Story of Success
http://www.audible.com/pd/Nonfiction/Outliers-Audiobook/B002UZDRK8/ref=a_search_c4_1_1_srTtl?qid=1404474932&sr=1-1