I put stop losses on about 1/2 my shares for GDX and GDXJ.
If the miners finally bottomed, then we should not see a significant pullback to the levels we saw.
So, I may be wrong, and miners are headed lower.
GDX stop loss I put at 27.25
GDXJ stop loss I put at 45
Gary of smart money tracker put it at different levels than I did.
I want to give this more range than normal, I don't want to be whip-sawed out of the position.
But I also don't want the stocks to melt, and I sit watching the miners fail.
Take a look at your cost-basis, and stock charts, pick what is comfortable for you.
My target to sell is 2017+, or 300%+ profit.
Good luck
Tuesday, August 27, 2013
Friday, August 16, 2013
Gold and Gold Miners, hoping worst is behind us
As of today, I am completely in gold and gold miners. Any free capital in any account I have is all in.
Further, I have a small play in some calls, year 2017, so far in last 4 days up over 100% in value.
If this was 2009, I would have made some serious earnings, but I don't take risks like I used to.
My friend Happy John has been in fixed income primarily for last 3 years, and finally he is materially 'in' on miners. A friend who used to manage a hedge fund is also in, and Greg 'the day trader' is in for a bit.
Gary of the smart money tracker is optimistic, and always with some caution.
Friend of mine got in near the low of GDX in pretty good.
Bottom line, what I have been waiting for since 2010 is here. In September 2011 post titled "The Bear is Back" I stated:
Out of ALL Long stocks, and even resource stocks should get somewhat routed. The next upswing I think will be an explosion for resource based stocks on the upswing. .... The USD crisis isn't until after the next upswing and the next cycle of down pressure. I still think 2013-2014, possibly as late as 2018, depending on how events unfold.
Routed isn't the right word for what happened to resource stocks. A brutal beating the likes almost no one saw comming. The US dollar is indeed falling, but it hasn't been a confirmed rout yet, so we'll see about the USD part. But remember, my view of gold going up is UNRELATED to USD currency, that simply adds fuel to the fire.
From post in January 2011, quote:
Precious Metals – I have blogged many times, I do not believe gold is money. I therefore do not like gold as an alternate currency. It is frankly, insanity. Gold as money works in a mad-max world. I will not spend my life planning for mad-max. However India and china cultures are in love with gold. As 2.5 billion people can afford to spend more disposable income, one common theme in both cultures is buy gold! And of course, the alternate reason is there are plenty of people who do view gold as money. For whatever the reasoning of people purchasing, I expect gold gold gold to the moon.
India has placed a surcharge tax on all gold of 10%, and Pakistan has BANNED gold imports. Seems like there is a slight uptick in gold buying, who could have seen that comming?
Now is the time to simply own GDX, GDXJ, GLD, and some individual gold miners and wait.
I expect this blog to be quite boring. I may simply have a chart of Gold and Gold miners showing when at risk (if it happens) to be reversing.
I expect to hold these positions for 1 to 4 years, making a pretty boring blog!
Good luck to ya. Gold went up pretty dramatically over last 4 days, taking GDX with it, to the chart!
Further, I have a small play in some calls, year 2017, so far in last 4 days up over 100% in value.
If this was 2009, I would have made some serious earnings, but I don't take risks like I used to.
My friend Happy John has been in fixed income primarily for last 3 years, and finally he is materially 'in' on miners. A friend who used to manage a hedge fund is also in, and Greg 'the day trader' is in for a bit.
Gary of the smart money tracker is optimistic, and always with some caution.
Friend of mine got in near the low of GDX in pretty good.
Bottom line, what I have been waiting for since 2010 is here. In September 2011 post titled "The Bear is Back" I stated:
Out of ALL Long stocks, and even resource stocks should get somewhat routed. The next upswing I think will be an explosion for resource based stocks on the upswing. .... The USD crisis isn't until after the next upswing and the next cycle of down pressure. I still think 2013-2014, possibly as late as 2018, depending on how events unfold.
Routed isn't the right word for what happened to resource stocks. A brutal beating the likes almost no one saw comming. The US dollar is indeed falling, but it hasn't been a confirmed rout yet, so we'll see about the USD part. But remember, my view of gold going up is UNRELATED to USD currency, that simply adds fuel to the fire.
From post in January 2011, quote:
Precious Metals – I have blogged many times, I do not believe gold is money. I therefore do not like gold as an alternate currency. It is frankly, insanity. Gold as money works in a mad-max world. I will not spend my life planning for mad-max. However India and china cultures are in love with gold. As 2.5 billion people can afford to spend more disposable income, one common theme in both cultures is buy gold! And of course, the alternate reason is there are plenty of people who do view gold as money. For whatever the reasoning of people purchasing, I expect gold gold gold to the moon.
India has placed a surcharge tax on all gold of 10%, and Pakistan has BANNED gold imports. Seems like there is a slight uptick in gold buying, who could have seen that comming?
Now is the time to simply own GDX, GDXJ, GLD, and some individual gold miners and wait.
I expect this blog to be quite boring. I may simply have a chart of Gold and Gold miners showing when at risk (if it happens) to be reversing.
I expect to hold these positions for 1 to 4 years, making a pretty boring blog!
Good luck to ya. Gold went up pretty dramatically over last 4 days, taking GDX with it, to the chart!
Tuesday, August 13, 2013
Gold and Gold miners - A buy
I have been beating the gold miner drum for a while now, but I'll re-iterate this call.
I see no need for me to report charts, reasoning, and other items to point to gold miners.
Instead I refer you to Gary Savage post 'Behind the bear raid'. I don't subscribe to the reasoning that there is a plot to tank gold miners recently. Ignoring Gary's twist on the gold decline, the charts and analysis is good.
Consider looking at ETF's GDX and GDXJ, with GDX at 28 today, and GDXJ at 45.
I am almost full tilt in this sector now. good luck!
I see no need for me to report charts, reasoning, and other items to point to gold miners.
Instead I refer you to Gary Savage post 'Behind the bear raid'. I don't subscribe to the reasoning that there is a plot to tank gold miners recently. Ignoring Gary's twist on the gold decline, the charts and analysis is good.
Consider looking at ETF's GDX and GDXJ, with GDX at 28 today, and GDXJ at 45.
I am almost full tilt in this sector now. good luck!
Sunday, August 4, 2013
Giving opinion is NOT worth it
I have been posting here and there on the technological advancement in monitoring since 2009. Recently I asked in a post "Giving opinion, is it worth it?". I have to say it is not.
Patriot Act was ground zero of all of this, and it had mass support. Now we have the NSA PRISM scandals, and all the public revelations on tracking, there is no material action being taken. Therefore there is one direction, continue spiral of ever increasing monitoring with zero restraint or process. Yes, you can point to restraint and process today, but the illegal actions taken, with zero indictments, and no material backlash equals free ticket to go much further.
Therefore the government has NO check and balance to enforce restraint on creating databases and profiles on every person. What will happen is a 1984 ish future mashed up with Gattaca, to shape your personal future. I cannot justify how posting my opinion in a public, non-eraseable form will have a higher chance of helping than hurting in 20 years, or my son. The only one way one person can make a difference is when the greater body of people yearn for leadership and support the person at the right time who stands up. The greater body of people will not look for leadership until after there is much pain to WANT leadership. Today we have all of this troubling technology exposed, and not enough willpower to act. Therefore what must happen is for this trajectory to go full course, and only after excess is so painful that change can happen. I dont think it will get painful until the common law enforcement officer has access Google-glass like technology.
This post is my last opinion post on corruption. If you care enough to know, look yourself. That is why the internet today is still the greatest tool for the common person in human history. Its all out there if you can sift through the crazy for the sane. I will continue to label corruption when in conjunction with events that transpire.
If you think I am nuts for this opinion, two things. First, what did you think of my opinion in June 2012 or in 2009 stating that the government can and will track everything? Today what do you think given the video below?
Show me wrong, pick up where I left off, feel free to post your efforts in comments on this post for others to follow you.
Patriot Act was ground zero of all of this, and it had mass support. Now we have the NSA PRISM scandals, and all the public revelations on tracking, there is no material action being taken. Therefore there is one direction, continue spiral of ever increasing monitoring with zero restraint or process. Yes, you can point to restraint and process today, but the illegal actions taken, with zero indictments, and no material backlash equals free ticket to go much further.
Therefore the government has NO check and balance to enforce restraint on creating databases and profiles on every person. What will happen is a 1984 ish future mashed up with Gattaca, to shape your personal future. I cannot justify how posting my opinion in a public, non-eraseable form will have a higher chance of helping than hurting in 20 years, or my son. The only one way one person can make a difference is when the greater body of people yearn for leadership and support the person at the right time who stands up. The greater body of people will not look for leadership until after there is much pain to WANT leadership. Today we have all of this troubling technology exposed, and not enough willpower to act. Therefore what must happen is for this trajectory to go full course, and only after excess is so painful that change can happen. I dont think it will get painful until the common law enforcement officer has access Google-glass like technology.
This post is my last opinion post on corruption. If you care enough to know, look yourself. That is why the internet today is still the greatest tool for the common person in human history. Its all out there if you can sift through the crazy for the sane. I will continue to label corruption when in conjunction with events that transpire.
If you think I am nuts for this opinion, two things. First, what did you think of my opinion in June 2012 or in 2009 stating that the government can and will track everything? Today what do you think given the video below?
Show me wrong, pick up where I left off, feel free to post your efforts in comments on this post for others to follow you.
Thursday, August 1, 2013
Jim Chanos China vs USA
Mr. Chanos I find always worth watching, his insight and what appears to be honesty is refreshing.
Well worth the watch, and he is actually bullish on USA compared to China and Europe. Slightly dated, from December 2012
Comments on HP and services companies
Well worth the watch, and he is actually bullish on USA compared to China and Europe. Slightly dated, from December 2012
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