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Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Greece Default not likely

Last night I posted on how the market is poised for a potential summary rally. I read this morning Hussman's assessment of Greek default, he places it in the 2012-2013 timeframe.

I encourage you to read the analysis, as John Hussman is a hedgefund manager, and a smart one at that. It is great to have free insight into very significant economic developments. Mr. Hussman's hedge fund is also in precious metals to the tune of 20%.

Assuming Mr. Hussman is correct, and I no reason to think otherwise. there is a very likely possibility of Greece reaching some sort of restructuring deal in the days or weeks ahead. When that comes to pass, I can see pent up demand held back by fear released. This could be the catalyst for the summer rally described by yesterday's post.

Of course, all of this is maybe, probably, and not exacting. The world of investing is probabilities, not guarantees. And my view has shifted from possible pending market collapse to a couple of month rally before the downturn begins in earnest. That downturn will likely reverse with political monkeying for the 2012 election. The money boost the government issues unfortunately will not last 2 years like it did in 2009-2011, we will be lucky to get 1 next time.

For most of my shorts, I put limits in to cover, and hope to get a good price to get out.


Good luck.

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