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Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Oil Prices and Energy Supply Problems

In August of 2008, Oil hit 145 a barrel. Immediately afterwards with the market crash, Oil hit 30 dollars a barrel.

Said it then, and I still believe that we will never in our lifetime see 30 dollars a barrel again.

Flash forward and in Q1 of 2011, oil was rising rapidly towards 115 a barrel (and beyond?).
But unlike 2008 when the global economy was full steam ahead, now its a tepid growth. The rising oil prices are resulting in energy supply problems around the world.

I expect in the years to come, 200 dollars a barrel will be come the low end of the scale, not high end for oil. In effect, prices of oil will find a new range, higher than historic prices. To read up why, see Wikipedia on Peak Oil.

So what does this mean for investing? Last time oil shocked the global economy towards a collapse. This time, it maybe a tepid retreat of the economy. But one thing I can count on, as oil rises above 140 a barrel and beyond, I doubt corporations in America and most western countries will go on a hiring spree.

Cheap energy has financed global growth since adopted. Technology and cheap oil is the defining difference between the 1500's and the 1900's. Without cheap energy, good luck on complex technology being affordable.

If/when the market retreats, at the "bottom", a great buy alternative to gold is oil producers, for as oil gets more expensive, their profit margins rise.

Video from Jim Rogers

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