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Monday, July 13, 2009

High stakes poker week

The market is on a ridiculously high stakes point this week. Some items:
  1. A very large head and shoulders pattern is formed. if the market breaks below 880 with conviction on a closing basis, 810 seems very likely, and possibly much lower once margin calls start to occur on stock trading accounts.
  2. Other stock market indexes, not just they USA have formed very large head and shoulders patterns. If these confirm, the target for other markets outside of America is apocalyptic. Market valuations of ZERO. Granted, I don't believe that is possible, but the chartists see this pattern and are concerned.
  3. This week is options expiration. Typically very large moves occur near the expiration date, this Saturday. Also huge swings in different directions each day this week is very likely. This will not be a fun week for stock trading.
  4. US Treasury interest rates are moving lower. This relieves the pressure from the US Government to want the market to go lower, to create fear, to lower interest rates. Therefore the US government can "handle" a significant market rally, if that was to occur. This is a concern since, if interest rates where rising, I would have significant faith in the market declining this week.
  5. Gold, Gold miners, Oil, and other natural resources are all breaking downwards. In the case of gold, the bottom could be much lower. Looking for signal of where the decline stops.
  6. The chartists see a "Fibonacci trend reversal point" this week. This could swing in either direction.
  7. Goldman Sachs reports earnings Tuesday. Since Goldman is accused of front running billions in dollars of stock trades, and acting a market manipulator for the US government, it is extremely possible they beat earning giving the market fuel to rocket higher. A disappoint is sure to tank the market.
This week frankly, I am dreading. From a trading perspective, we could close below 870 Monday and then swing right back up Tuesday. The very large head and shoulders pattern is obvious to any stock charter. Therefore the US Government and other large money groups will try extremely hard to push the market up in all likely hood. In any event, I expect there will be no free money this week. Meaning trading will be gut-wrenching. Since I have had my positions for months, I am willing to let it ride and get out at a loss if I am wrong.

If the market breaks higher, a panic covering by people short may drive the market significantly higher, once the head and shoulders proves wrong.

There is no way in hell I trade this week, except to close positions if I panic. I refuse to play in this environment. And I will try hard to not chase any big market moves. Don't forget the stocks I am playing can be found on the right of this blog or click here.

Below I included a wide variety of charts, with my spin, for your digestion. I recommend if you like these types of charts, pay for a professional. I recommend for market stocks in general technicalindicatorindex.com. For specific stock traded, BullzandBearz.com.

It is weeks like these I wish I was 100% cash, and avoid the pain.

From WebSurfinMurf's Financial Blog

From WebSurfinMurf's Financial Blog

From WebSurfinMurf's Financial Blog

From WebSurfinMurf's Financial Blog

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