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Financial news I consider important, with my opinion, which is worth as much as you paid for it.
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Friday, February 27, 2009

Rally Failure Thursday

The market opened up strong, only to end yet once again at the November lows for the S&P.
I won't even bother with the graph, its just too depressing. See previous graph, close enough.

What broke the extremely short rally? Some news, take your pick from the list below. One bullish thing from my perspective is I'm surprised the market didn't free fall on some of the news.

Goldman Sachs Cuts 2009 S&P 500 Forecast, Sees ‘Near Term’ Drop - My Spin - This should guarantee a rally. When does Goldman predict accurately a huge downturn?
Moody's predicts default rate will exceed peaks hit in Great Depression - My Spin - Really? This is news? I thought this was a basic assumption by now.
S&P downgrades life insurers on 'stressed assets', including Conseco, Genworth Financial, Hartford Financial, - My Spin - As per usual for Insurance Industry, NO COMMENT
Fannie to Draw $15.2 Billion From Treasury After announcing 59 BILLION dollar loss - My Spin - Freddie/Fannie will be a continual infinite drain on the US government. Wake me up when the totals exceed 2 trillion.
Spin on Obama budget being 1.75 Trillion as estimated (can be sure to be more) is starting to get bad press - My Spin - Where was the bad press the last 7 years on deficit spending at historic levels?
Obama plans mortgage-deduction cut - My Spin - This will hurt the NYC metro area, as well as CA, where houses are normally between 400k and 1M. These houses will have significant interest rates.
Weekly unemployment rates hit 667,000 - My Spin - Wake me up when it hits 1 million.
Durable goods drop for 6th consecutive month

And Drum roll for the two big winners today
US Government may backstop (cover) AIG Credit Default Swap exposure - My Spin - NOTE: Not commenting on AIG specifically, in GENERAL: You got to be kidding me. CDS is NOT regulated by the US or any government in any meaningful way. If the government is going to cover CDS losses directly, it better step up to the plate and regulate the CDS market ASAP. CDS world wide exposure is somewhere about 62 trillion dollars. AND this is a guess since its not regulated!
FDIC report released today , - My short take - Basically states that loan losses continued to weigh on earnings, troubled loans rising trend continued in Q4, The FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund reserve ratio fell.

Marc Faber comments on US Equities, and general advice to buy resources.
Entertaining reading on Marc Faber quip of how spending in the US packs a punch ONLY if spent "on prostitutes and beer".

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