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Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Confidence Breakdown

I talk to a friend of mine, Happy John, who is optimistic we are close to a bottom. I am starting to believe we are witnessing the collapse I had feared for the last 3 years would come to pass. But I still have hope!

The stock market is extremely oversold, and is looking for any reason to rally. Anytime there is optimism with a minor intra-day market rally yet another bad headline comes across the wire.

Today the market started SOME move upward around 2-2:30pm, then AIG announced it lost 60 BILLION dollars in the last 3 months. Yes, you read that right. 3 months. AIG is under government oversight, and was able to achieve such staggering losses. To give some sort of magnitude how much this is. If you where to spend $100,000 dollars a day, it would take 1,643 years to achieve 60 billion.

Basically, all market indicators, not just the DJIA are on the edge of all out failure. Even though I believe there still may be a rally, I am more convinced we are prime for a failure. In any event, I will stay in cash, I can't bear to bet more than I already am. I still have hope, but there is very little left.

Lets look at where we landed today. Unfortunately, there is NO SUPPORT left. we are in new territory.
DJIA & S&P 500 support levels have been broken. According to most chartists, we are now positioned for a collapse.
From WebSurfinMurf's Financial Blog

Look over last 15-19 years

From WebSurfinMurf's Financial Blog

Marc Faber, Author of "Gloom, Doom, and Boom", and he is actually thinking we may have a new bull in near term:

Other news today.
Citigroup's Parsons spotted at White House (speculation of CitiBank Government intervention)
Switzerland Could Go Broke
AmEx Offers Some Holders $300 to close account
Janus Downgraded to 'BB+/B' (Janus has many mutual funds it runs.....)

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