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Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Moment of Truth is here.....AGAIN

I have been ranting for months about how critical DOW 7.552 is. And today once again, the market closed EXACTLY on this level. What this means is, the market is as close as can be to start a freefall down 25-50% in short order. DOW 4,000 is quite possible.

I'll hold my panic off until DOW crosses below 7,400 on a closing basis. At that time, you must get protective of any longs you have losing, as they can lose much much more. Gold is unstoppable, and aiming for the sky. GDX is in full rally mode.

All of this can change on a DIME, with significant news from the White house. But the White House cannot wait for DOW 6,900 to try to reverse, it needs to do so in short order.
My belief is, if we don't reverse by Monday of next week.....we won't. The cascade failure is here. I of course, reserve the right to change opinion with additional news. :)

OK, to some charts, first, lets look at the recent 6 month trading chart, see below. Notice how the market closed EXACTLY on DOW 7,552? Really unbelievable, if not plain manipulated.
From WebSurfinMurf's Financial Blog


I have posted this picture before, but look whats very possible the next level of support.
From WebSurfinMurf's Financial Blog


The one savings grace here is Saturday is options expiration. Miracles do happen around this Saturday, at any time. As Karl of Market ticker says Unicorns do exist that crap skittles. (well they don't, but they want them to)

If your in cash, great, don't touch this at all. If your doom/gloom, buy some GDX even at 37, its a pit stop to 100. If your an optimist, buying a little of index funds for a rebound is not a bad play. But there is only one safe play......just don't play keep in CASH.

I could puke each day now, knowing how close to outright disaster the world sits right now. This is more nerve wracking than watching Dawn of the Dead the first time.

The news that will start to affect the markets tomorrow is "Bank nationalization gains ground with Republicans" My god. our first step towards communism is here. If this event happens, it will become one of my Financial Ground Zero moments. (click).

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