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Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Market at critical turning point

Yet once again, the market is through another critical level. The market fell below the lower band I have been watching. Next support level is 7,552. If the market breaks that level with conviction on a closing basis (7.450?), the next stop is much much lower.

IBM reported good earnings, the futures for Wednesday are pointed up by a small amount. If a rally can be started, this should be a rocket shot once it gains steam. GDX has held up great through all this. Gold has risen. Oil crushed, DXO modestly taking hits. The US Dollar is rising against many currencies. The British pound is getting destroyed as Britain is starting to understand its hurting way worse than the USA.
USD to British pound was almost 2 to 1 last year, now 1.4 to 1. We may see parity in the next year, which is hard to comprehend with how bad the US is also.

If the market breaks below DOW 7552 with conviction, next support level is back to 1992-1993 levels, about DOW 3000-4000 range.

What else is there to say? The market is on the ropes, beaten and bruised and setup to hit the mat hard with the ref counting. I still , although losing hope rapidly, think the market has to gain SOME optimism with Obama now in office. I would expect Obama to make some announcements that could move the markets.

The odd thing to me is, the "right" thing for Obama to do is to stop preventing banks from failing, and let the weak fall and the strong take over. Of course, the market would plunge immediately if this intention was announced. But the recovery would be much quicker. I'm still on the side the politicians will pull more tricks out of the hat to try to prevent further financial destruction in the near term.

Also on a Positive? Note about 50% of all stock market losses in the last month came from financial stocks. Positive? Well, I guess the rest of the market is not that bad off in comparison. Click for source.

Then there is the spin. It seems the "Bears" are getting more press, which I'm sure isn't helping the markets trying to recover. Economist Roubini announces banks insolvent, anither 2.5 Trillion losses coming. Yawn. Tell me something new Roubini.
From WebSurfinMurf's Financial Blog

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