In 7 days, the markets have moved like never before. Unfortunately the announcements by Trump don't change the underlying issue. Trump is leading ending the global free trade system implemented over 75 years. And he has not indicated that he will end his crusade.
What he has done is realized taking on all countries hard-core simultaneously is a risk the world markets recognize as a generational risk, hence global asset sell off. USA is now focused on China.
There is no change to USA stance, to threaten and bully the world to change the order of things. In such an approach the world is FREE to react negatively.
Quick throw back to my post on March 25th:
So now we stay long another decade and reap the rewards? Unfortunately, no. The Trump administration is determined to break the economy, so by the time he leaves office we can be on an upswing. Just kidding, he isn't leaving office in 2029.
Back to the markets! In the next 7 days we will see the next top, 2-3 weeks after the bottom as mentioned on the 11th. So in the week ahead, I will be selling my longs around 5900-6000 S&P 500.
Well the top was the 25th, with a pop up on the 2nd close to the top, and it fell apart from there.
On April 7th @ 6:41 am posted:
On 4/7 the S&P hit a low in the 4,800's and on 4/9 a high of 5,500.
So yesterday turns out to be the ideal time to sell for the next leg down.
This is faster than I imagined, and I am unfortunately long.
We can wiggle for a bit, and hopefully go back to SPX 5,550 before the next leg down. I am leaning towards this outcome into late April for next top. However, as we seen things can move much faster than I expect. So the top may have already been hit and we are going to see another S&P 500 correction of 10-15% sooner.
I may sell my longs without warning to shield myself from the damage. I am NOT in any leveraged funds, calls, and very few puts currently.
Good luck
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