Next Push…

 I expect some sort of positive announcement in the next 7 business days, to goose the market higher.  One maybe an emerge rate drop.  I am NOT short the market since April 7th.  However on the positive news I will look to reshort.  

Bitcoin should rally, Gold may pullback, and markets moving up to the highs April 9th.

News that may cause a longer rally is China political change, Russia war change, or Trump dropping tariff strategy.

Liberation Day Lasting effects

I been following global economics at a distance since 2006, and I didn't understand the USA framework with Most Favored Nation trading status.  I am honored that as an American we setup the free trade system that we are now dismantling.  I do think USA made mistakes letting China and Russia.  USA was too optimistic if we let them in they will change, and it cost us the USA middle class.

Well the pendulum is swinging hard when America was great again circa the late 1920's.

A really good video to explain what the world must deal with now, and how utter paralyzing it is to global trade.  After watching this I can't see how a Great Depression 2 can't happen.  I encourage you to watch and help me understand why my POV is misguided.  Thanks in advance!

I am adding Long term as this is a political change not seen since the 1940's, and will have long term material change for USA finances and the world.

Next Leg Down

Jerome Powell just dared to refuse a rate cut—leaving Trump no workaround to get what he wants. That leaves Trump with two choices: replace Powell or order Secretary of US Treasury Scott Bessent, to implement new financial innovation to project rate cuts. Either way won’t spark growth—global markets set U.S. borrowing costs, not Washington. Undermining Fed independence would erode confidence, spike yields, weaken the dollar, and likely trigger the deepest bear market since 1929. The real lever isn’t finance games—it’s providing true competitive value that the world wants.

I am still holding to sideways to a little up through April 28th.

I do recommend watching the video and reading post: "American Assets Declining Ahead".

Update: Analysis from former Fed Reserve employee, https://youtu.be/9NAVHjvN9HQ?si=6ChAqq69aypbiKBs

American assets declining ahead

Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, has been vocal about the major challenges facing the U.S. economy. On *Meet the Press* (April 13), he echoed a concern I share: the current global order—monetary, trade, and geopolitical—is breaking down, much like it did in the 1930s.

His closing advice—*“work together and negotiate, don’t dictate”*—is a successful path forward for USA. If U.S. leadership adopts this mindset, I’ll become more optimistic. Until then, I’m preparing for the outcome Dalio warns of.

We could soon face a rare and dangerous combination: a falling U.S. dollar, rising bond yields, and a declining stock market. That scenario would erode the wealth of Americans heavily invested in domestic assets and could trigger a modern Great Depression.  We have weeks, not years left before things get moving.

This is why I’ve been advocating for global diversification. Consider assets non-USA stable country fund EFAV, or individual country ETF's like INDA.  Alternative assets like Gold Miners and Bitcoin may  hold or rise in value during the storm.  Many 401(k) plans already include international funds—take a closer look.

Take action Talk to your financial advisor from a *global perspective* about how truly diversified your portfolio is—and whether it’s built to weather what’s coming.

Future posts will label "Short Term" vs "Long Term" (year plus) investment commentary.  Both are linked on left of this blog for easy filtering.

Topped already?

In 7 days, the markets have moved like never before.  Unfortunately the announcements by Trump don't change the underlying issue.  Trump is leading ending the global free trade system implemented over 75 years.  And he has not indicated that he will end his crusade.

What he has done is realized taking on all countries hard-core simultaneously is a risk the world markets recognize as a generational risk, hence global asset sell off.  USA is now focused on China.

There is no change to USA stance, to threaten and bully the world to change the order of things.  In such an approach the world is FREE to react negatively.

Quick throw back to my post on March 25th:

So now we stay long another decade and reap the rewards? Unfortunately, no.  The Trump administration is determined to break the economy, so by the time he leaves office we can be on an upswing.   Just kidding, he isn't leaving office in 2029.

Back to the markets!  In the next 7 days we will see the next top, 2-3 weeks after the bottom as mentioned on the 11th.   So in the week ahead, I will be selling my longs around 5900-6000 S&P 500.

Well the top was the 25th, with a pop up on the 2nd close to the top, and it fell apart from there.

On April 7th @ 6:41 am posted:

If today's low is around 4,800, it's quite possible the market will bounce back to 5,500, about 15% higher. In my view, if you don’t believe tariff wars will drive the stock market higher in 2025, that’s a good level to consider reducing risk.

On 4/7 the S&P hit a low in the 4,800's and on 4/9 a high of 5,500.

So yesterday turns out to be the ideal time to sell for the next leg down.  

This is faster than I imagined, and I am unfortunately long.

We can wiggle for a bit, and hopefully go back to SPX 5,550 before the next leg down.  I am leaning towards this outcome into late April for next top.  However, as we seen things can move much faster than I expect.  So the top may have already been hit and we are going to see another S&P 500 correction of 10-15% sooner.

I may sell my longs without warning to shield myself from the damage.  I am NOT in any leveraged funds, calls, and very few puts currently.

Good luck

Potential Buys

Please seek a financial advisor for any investment activity.

 If you haven't already PLEASE READ Potential Short Term bottom before reading this.  There is no purchasing in this market without a market bottom.  Please seek a financial advisor for any investment activity.

These are stocks that I am looking at gains in the next year.

PLTR: Defense spender that has AI technology.  It should open as a BUY today any place between the open and as low as 65.  I will buy hard core more it closes in on 65.

NOTE: Palantir is extremely expensive on a price-to-earnings (P/E) basis. It is trading at 152x

INDA: India, there is quite a bit of support if INDA hits 47 dollar range.  I like India as alternate USD currency value store and about 5% dividend.

BTC: Bitcoin.  There is quite a bit of support if it hits 69K-60K.   I expect Trump will give it a boost at some point to generate a positive financial story and a potential for world to turn to as alternate value store.  Target is 400k

Gold: The fear play has now occurred, I expect gold could fall from 3100/oz down to 2,800-2,700 oz in the months ahead.  I do expect it will continue to rise over the year ahead.

Closing my SHORTS, they could be a place to buy for a counter rally (I won't)

STLA: Mission accomplished, started shorting in the 20's, should open below 9. closing puts.  Will re-open long-term puts if it counter rally's hard.  I expect a counter rally to as high as 15.  I may buy calls if cheap enough.

CVNA: This stock IMO will go much lower.  I will close it out simply due to the speed of recent decline.  My puts are SO far lower, I need to profit on time premium.

ORCL: I will close my position out, it has hit hard core resistance zone.  It has gone from almost 200 down to 123 today. There is VERY hard support around 120.   It is a re-short later this year.

QCOM: The fall has been beyond staggering from 230 to premarket of 123, and its VERY hard support.  Closing out the stock, and will re-short ONLY if it gets back to 150.

A potential short term bottom

 

Please seek a financial advisor for any investment activity.

The stock market's peak in February was 6,147, and a 20% decline would bring it down to 4,917, which we could see today. There is solid support in the S&P 500 around the 4,800-4,600 range. A sharp drop of 25% would put it at 4,600, but it's hard to envision a market falling that much—down 25% in under two months.

However, let's look at this from a time perspective rather than focusing on percentages. If the market were to return to its December 2023 levels in April 2025, that would be a 25% drop, back to 4,600. Losing gains from the past 15 months doesn't seem far-fetched, considering the disruption of 75 years of free trade.

There is significant market support between 4,800 and 3,900, so the market will likely bottom and rebound. While I’m confident that after another positive rally, the market will face another failure, if you're considering selling, in my opinion, today isn’t the right time, as the market is likely to counter-rally.

If today's low is around 4,800, it's quite possible the market will bounce back to 5,500, about 15% higher. In my view, if you don’t believe tariff wars will drive the stock market higher in 2025, that’s a good level to consider reducing risk.

I plan to close out some puts today or tomorrow if there's any sign of real strength.

Good luck!

Monday

 The S&P 500 hit 4840 as I write this.  A close below 4700 is very concerning to me.   I am hoping the market closes above 4700 and finds the near term bottom I am looking for into Tuesday.

A close below 4700 and I am concerned of a 2008 or worse collapse.  Bitcoin which has been solid is falling over the weekend.

Like I said in a previous post, it took 75 years to build the global trade system, and everyone should expect negative impact at minimum in the short term.

Good luck.

Target Hit! now what?

 Target has been hit! It doesn't mean the exact bottom was today at 10:50 am.
We may get one more push down for an extreme low.

Either way, market should recover soon.  My favs are PLTR, Bitcoin, Gold, and anything that Trump promotes.    I already started to buy "a little" PLTR.

If there is a swoosh I'll be loading up.  I have sells in to exit some puts.

A break of S&P 500 below 5,000 to me is a buy.

UPDATE: 4/4 ~ 2:12 pm.  I have a hard time believing we go below 4,800 for this run down.  TBD next week.

Remember, all of this goes lower later this year, this is SHORT TERM purchasing on my part.

SPX 5100 ish is the target

This is a quick down swing!

Only good news is we are a stones throw from S & P 500 losing 10% in the stock market since close Wednesday.  And that has been my target for this near term low.

I think the panic will continue, and we may get a low as early as Tuesday at S & P 500 reaching 5100.  The more likely path is whip-saw action over the next 4 weeks terminating in 5100 range.

For those long, the next upswing after May will be THE LAST CALL to get the heck out of this market.  I expect a 40-60% route of the market by Q1 2026.  That will be the low.  However, I don't think most stocks will recover for a decade except the new industries will soar like never seen before.  I will post the ETF's I think are good.

Exceptions to this routing is the 'Trump put' on PLTR or any of the CEO's getting Trump's favor.  There maybe enough insider buying on a pullback to minimize the damage in those companies.  I suspect the post low will be Trump announcing "new contracts" to surge these stocks.

I dumped all my double Gold and silver ETF's as these assets will be sold as margin calls are issued.

Bitcoin can crater to 60K, I am still a hold for 400K.

I will, without posting, close out my shorts at any time, simply because it was so fast.  My favorite short, STLA has cratered.   I have a target, but I may punk-out sooner.  Other ones just getting started down is Oracle and QCOM.

Good luck, on the high post May (August?)  I will do my final warning post, after that, there is nothing I can post that helps.  My 401k is 100% short term fixed assets.

Counter Argument

 Yesterday I posted Sell.  Today I am thinking of any counter arguments to that position.    The USA market with tech maybe the world leader in the next few years.   If USA corporations can turn AI enabled capabilities into products, including robots, then even is Americans are suffering, the world will likely still buy US stocks.

Further if the world does not want to buy US treasuries, the next best thing to do with dollars is buy US corporate stocks, natural resources, or US real estate.  Basically move from USA paper money to assets.

While I still think stocks move lower, there maybe a path to the next low as an enduring, multi-year low in US stocks.   This is different than asserting US citizens will do better.  The result will be rich vs poor continues to accelerate.

So while I am still pessimistic, I will be looking to buy and hold future centric ETFs.   I’ll do a post soon in what those are.

Sell

Sell.  

OK to own US treasuries 5 year or less duration for next year or ETF of India INDA. Decent other holds are GLD, GDX, and potentially Bitcoin .  I do expect gold and bitcoin to sell off,  margins get called over the month.  But I do think over the year should not as bad as equities.

We are witnessing 75 years of US building a global economy being taken down.   I am not saying USA will do bad, but I am saying the transition wont be fun for the markets.

I do expect a near term bottom 10% lower from close Wednesday, then another counter rally, then lower again.  Highs for the year are in the past.

Good luck

Uncharted Road

 This next few days I expect some extreme market movements.   If the market close any week above spx 5800, I will rethink my bearish stance.

Until then I am looking for a rocket ride higher as a gift, a gift to re-enter my shorts.  Its not often I can say this, bit I am eager to see the market charts Sunday.

Good luck