Target Hit! now what?

 Target has been hit! It doesn't mean the exact bottom was today at 10:50 am.
We may get one more push down for an extreme low.

Either way, market should recover soon.  My favs are PLTR, Bitcoin, Gold, and anything that Trump promotes.    I already started to buy "a little" PLTR.

If there is a swoosh I'll be loading up.  I have sells in to exit some puts.

A break of S&P 500 below 5,000 to me is a buy.

UPDATE: 4/4 ~ 2:12 pm.  I have a hard time believing we go below 4,800 for this run down.  TBD next week.

Remember, all of this goes lower later this year, this is SHORT TERM purchasing on my part.

SPX 5100 ish is the target

This is a quick down swing!

Only good news is we are a stones throw from S & P 500 losing 10% in the stock market since close Wednesday.  And that has been my target for this near term low.

I think the panic will continue, and we may get a low as early as Tuesday at S & P 500 reaching 5100.  The more likely path is whip-saw action over the next 4 weeks terminating in 5100 range.

For those long, the next upswing after May will be THE LAST CALL to get the heck out of this market.  I expect a 40-60% route of the market by Q1 2026.  That will be the low.  However, I don't think most stocks will recover for a decade except the new industries will soar like never seen before.  I will post the ETF's I think are good.

Exceptions to this routing is the 'Trump put' on PLTR or any of the CEO's getting Trump's favor.  There maybe enough insider buying on a pullback to minimize the damage in those companies.  I suspect the post low will be Trump announcing "new contracts" to surge these stocks.

I dumped all my double Gold and silver ETF's as these assets will be sold as margin calls are issued.

Bitcoin can crater to 60K, I am still a hold for 400K.

I will, without posting, close out my shorts at any time, simply because it was so fast.  My favorite short, STLA has cratered.   I have a target, but I may punk-out sooner.  Other ones just getting started down is Oracle and QCOM.

Good luck, on the high post May (August?)  I will do my final warning post, after that, there is nothing I can post that helps.  My 401k is 100% short term fixed assets.

Counter Argument

 Yesterday I posted Sell.  Today I am thinking of any counter arguments to that position.    The USA market with tech maybe the world leader in the next few years.   If USA corporations can turn AI enabled capabilities into products, including robots, then even is Americans are suffering, the world will likely still buy US stocks.

Further if the world does not want to buy US treasuries, the next best thing to do with dollars is buy US corporate stocks, natural resources, or US real estate.  Basically move from USA paper money to assets.

While I still think stocks move lower, there maybe a path to the next low as an enduring, multi-year low in US stocks.   This is different than asserting US citizens will do better.  The result will be rich vs poor continues to accelerate.

So while I am still pessimistic, I will be looking to buy and hold future centric ETFs.   I’ll do a post soon in what those are.

Sell

Sell.  

OK to own US treasuries 5 year or less duration for next year or ETF of India INDA. Decent other holds are GLD, GDX, and potentially Bitcoin .  I do expect gold and bitcoin to sell off,  margins get called over the month.  But I do think over the year should not as bad as equities.

We are witnessing 75 years of US building a global economy being taken down.   I am not saying USA will do bad, but I am saying the transition wont be fun for the markets.

I do expect a near term bottom 10% lower from close Wednesday, then another counter rally, then lower again.  Highs for the year are in the past.

Good luck

Uncharted Road

 This next few days I expect some extreme market movements.   If the market close any week above spx 5800, I will rethink my bearish stance.

Until then I am looking for a rocket ride higher as a gift, a gift to re-enter my shorts.  Its not often I can say this, bit I am eager to see the market charts Sunday.

Good luck