Hello! Its been a while since I posted. I sold all my crypto a few weeks ago except my core bitcoin. I lightened up on longs (not that I had much!) a few weeks ago too.
Now the market is correcting. I will be exiting my shorter term puts between here and S&P 500 between 4,800-5,000.
I really doubt we will see a 2008 crash. I do think we will see insane swings in the market, with an overall trend down. The market is opening up insanely down today, and we could get more.
But when the S&P500 is below 5,000 its getting a little over-sold on such a short term.
In the chart below is the SPY, and we will see the 50 day moving average hit at between 4,800-5000 depending on the day in the weeks ahead.
I do expect August as a month to be DOWN, so I am not talking a meaningful bottom here.
My goal will be to roll over puts dated 2025 to 2026 and hold.
Overall, safest is 1-5 year US bonds and/or investments in core companies you think are worth it for 10 years. I do think the next 5 years will not be great for the stock market, but I do think eventually AI will be explosive. Its just a little too soon just like 2000 with the internet.
Good luck.
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