Friday ended below the line I called out as the 20% lower line, but not by much.
Monday was decision day, and the market is now back into bear rally mode. However, until the January high is broken, we are in a BEAR market! So I do expect much, much lower market, but it could be out to fall of 2023 now.
I added a purple line now, and if the SPY closes BELOW 357 on a CLOSING basis, its is finally, game over and a material run lower will happen. Until then, playing the bull is fine, and I may on occasion go long items. This rally is a gift to exit long positions, pick your level between 385 to 400ish range.
If you are very optimistic, then a break above the red downtrend line is the first step to BREAK this bear market. Until that happens, its pure hope, no chart or price support for that point of view. I'll put some short on if/when we get near 400 for the next material down swing. Good luck!
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